If you’re going after a difference maker at quarterback – one of the very best guys – it usually involves looking at the best teams. Of the 16 best quarterbacks of last 10 years, all came from teams that also won their divisions.
This isn’t earth-shattering. You throw close to 40 touchdowns, and your team will be winning some games. But I poked around with the numbers some on this. The chart below shows the 50 quarterbacks in the last 10 years who’ve finished with top-5 numbers using traditional scoring.
For guys who played on teams winning their division, they’re in bold. If a player came from a wild-card team, he’s got a black dot. And guys from teams that didn’t make the playoffs are in plain type.
Of the 50 quarterbacks listed, 27 came from division winners. I’ll concede that’s a little lower than I expected (especially at the No. 2 quarterback slot, where the 10 guys are evenly spread between the three categories). Of these 50 quarterbacks, nine came from wild-card teams. And 14 (28 percent) came from teams that didn’t make the playoffs.
TOP-5 QUARTERBACKS FROM THE LAST 10 SEASONS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | Points |
2022 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 17 | 5,250 | 41 | 12 | 358 | 4 | 493.9 |
2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 16 | 5,477 | 55 | 10 | -31 | 1 | 498.8 |
2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 16 | 5,097 | 50 | 12 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 |
2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 4,407 | 36 | 15 | 763 | 6 | 482.7 |
2022 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 4,283 | 35 | 14 | 762 | 7 | 476.4 |
2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 4,544 | 37 | 10 | 421 | 8 | 473.5 |
2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 3,127 | 36 | 6 | 1,206 | 7 | 463.0 |
2021 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 17 | 5,014 | 38 | 15 | 302 | 3 | 462.9 |
2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 17 | 5,316 | 43 | 12 | 81 | 2 | 457.9 |
2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 3,837 | 35 | 10 | 636 | 10 | 455.5 |
2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3,971 | 26 | 12 | 819 | 11 | 450.5 |
2016 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4,428 | 40 | 7 | 369 | 4 | 446.3 |
2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 17 | 4,839 | 37 | 13 | 381 | 2 | 444.1 |
2014 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 4,761 | 40 | 16 | 273 | 3 | 443.4 |
2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4,299 | 48 | 5 | 149 | 3 | 440.3 |
2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 15 | 4,740 | 38 | 6 | 308 | 2 | 437.8 |
2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 4,823 | 33 | 7 | 444 | 3 | 437.6 |
2013 | • Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 5,162 | 39 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 437.3 |
2022 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 3,701 | 22 | 6 | 760 | 13 | 431.1 |
2018 | • Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 16 | 5,129 | 34 | 16 | 98 | 3 | 429.2 |
2018 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 4,924 | 35 | 7 | 125 | 3 | 428.2 |
2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 5,109 | 33 | 30 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 |
2022 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 4,475 | 35 | 12 | 257 | 5 | 425.5 |
2016 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 5,208 | 37 | 15 | 20 | 2 | 422.4 |
2021 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 17 | 4,886 | 41 | 17 | 43 | 0 | 416.6 |
2017 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 3,983 | 34 | 11 | 586 | 3 | 415.8 |
2016 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 4,944 | 38 | 7 | 117 | 0 | 414.9 |
2019 | • Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4,902 | 30 | 11 | 277 | 3 | 412.8 |
2014 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4,381 | 38 | 5 | 269 | 2 | 412.0 |
2015 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 4,770 | 36 | 7 | 53 | 3 | 410.4 |
2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 4,428 | 35 | 18 | 310 | 2 | 406.4 |
2018 | • Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 4,593 | 39 | 15 | 148 | 0 | 405.9 |
2015 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4,024 | 34 | 8 | 553 | 1 | 398.5 |
2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 4,165 | 26 | 9 | 551 | 5 | 397.4 |
2014 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 16 | 4,727 | 39 | 15 | -24 | 0 | 394.0 |
2014 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 4,952 | 33 | 17 | 68 | 1 | 393.5 |
2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 3,852 | 26 | 12 | 413 | 7 | 389.5 |
2016 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 15 | 4,240 | 31 | 13 | 341 | 2 | 386.1 |
2014 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 16 | 4,952 | 32 | 9 | 27 | 0 | 383.7 |
2019 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4,110 | 31 | 5 | 342 | 3 | 383.7 |
2015 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 16 | 4,671 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 382.0 |
2016 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 16 | 4,917 | 25 | 12 | 96 | 4 | 379.5 |
2013 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 4,293 | 33 | 20 | 183 | 2 | 377.0 |
2022 | • Geno Smith, Sea. | 17 | 4,282 | 30 | 11 | 366 | 1 | 376.7 |
2013 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 16 | 4,650 | 29 | 19 | 69 | 2 | 371.4 |
2017 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 3,302 | 22 | 16 | 754 | 6 | 366.5 |
2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 4,577 | 32 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 363.7 |
2013 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 3,379 | 24 | 13 | 585 | 6 | 359.5 |
2017 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 16 | 4,093 | 27 | 13 | 179 | 4 | 354.6 |
2017 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 16 | 4,446 | 29 | 10 | 98 | 0 | 352.1 |
Turning our attention to the 2023, I think of the three notable AFC North quarterbacks – Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. (Sorry, Kenny Pickett). It’s not possible for all of those teams to be good. Jackson and Watson in particular could be playing for more modest teams, given the degree of difficulty in the AFC.
I like both Jackson (pictured) and Watson, but as things stand, I have both outside of the top 5 at the position. I’ve got Jackson as the No. 6 quarterback on my board, and I’ve got Watson down around 10th on my board.
—Ian Allan