Anthony Richardson hardly played at Florida, with only 13 starts. Is it realistic to expect him to step in and put up viable numbers anytime soon? Quarterback is, after all, the most complex position in sports.
One school of thought is that it’s preferred to draft quarterbacks who’ve played a bunch. The 10,000-hour type guys have a better chance of not being mentally overwhelmed. Last year we had Brock Purdy having remarkable success with the 49ers, while Kenny Pickett had some decent games late in the year for the Steelers. They were both four-year starters in college.
Trey Lance, on the other hand, didn’t play much in college, and he’s been unable to get his career going. Similarly, Mitchell Trubisky and Dwayne Haskins started only one season in college.
But rather than looking at isolated examples, let’s unpack the college numbers for all 46 quarterbacks drafted with first-round picks in the last 15 years. They appear below, in descending order by pass attempts.
Three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round this year, and I’ve got them in bold. Of that group, Bryce Young comes in with the most trigger time – 949 college attempts – but he doesn’t rank as high as I expected. Of the quarterbacks on this list, 22 attempted more passes when they were in college. You can perhaps factor in that Young was playing in the more rigorous Southeastern Conference, but it’s more accurate to say he’s got an average amount of experience in comparison with other quarterbacks selected in the first round.
Most of the numbers you see show cumulative college stats. The final column (the “Rank”) shows the highest the player has ever ranked as a pro quarterback, using per-game numbers and standard scoring (including rushing). On per-game ranks, a player must have started at least half of a season to earn a score.
If a player has a black dot in front of his name, he’s always ranked below-average statistically. If he’s got two black dots, he’s never been anything other than a bottom-10 quarterback (at least so far).
Circling back to college experience, I don’t see any meaningful trends in regards to college experience. That is, if you take the 15 quarterbacks who threw the most passes in college, they don’t appear to be any better as a group than the 15 who’ve attempted the fewest. There is no “Purdy factor”, as far as I can see.
To me, college experience doesn’t solve the question of which 2023 quarterback will post the best numbers. Personally, I am most interested in Young and Richardson. I think Young might be able to credible run Carolina’s offense, and I like the cast they’ve put around him – both players and coaches.
With Richardson, you’re playing more for the possibility he might have some Justin Fields or Jalen Hurts in him, running for a bunch of yards and touchdowns. They’ve got Shane Steichen putting together that offense, and he’s been working with a running quarterback for the past two years.
| COLLEGE PASSING STATS FOR QUARTERBACKS PICKED IN FIRST ROUND (2009-) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Com | Att | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Rk |
| 2022 | •• Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 1,045 | 1,674 | 62.4 | 12,303 | 81 | 32 | 30 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 977 | 1,568 | 62.3 | 12,195 | 96 | 30 | 8 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 1,026 | 1,497 | 68.5 | 14,607 | 131 | 30 | 11 |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 857 | 1,349 | 63.5 | 11,252 | 93 | 29 | 1 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 827 | 1,293 | 64.0 | 10,541 | 95 | 23 | 2 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 764 | 1,275 | 59.9 | 8,201 | 52 | 29 | 8 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 814 | 1,207 | 67.4 | 10,168 | 90 | 32 | 5 |
| 2016 | •• Paxton Lynch, Den. | 758 | 1,205 | 62.9 | 8,863 | 59 | 23 | -- |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Wash. | 800 | 1,192 | 67.1 | 10,366 | 78 | 17 | 5 |
| 2018 | •• Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 712 | 1,170 | 60.9 | 9,340 | 59 | 26 | 32 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 779 | 1,167 | 66.8 | 10,796 | 105 | 14 | 14 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 680 | 1,151 | 59.1 | 8,078 | 44 | 34 | 14 |
| 2011 | •• Jake Locker, Tenn. | 619 | 1,147 | 54.0 | 7,639 | 53 | 35 | 23 |
| 2014 | • Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 781 | 1,142 | 68.4 | 9,817 | 72 | 24 | 21 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 758 | 1,138 | 66.6 | 10,098 | 90 | 17 | 11 |
| 2020 | •• Jordan Love, G.B. | 689 | 1,125 | 61.2 | 8,600 | 60 | 29 | -- |
| 2012 | •• Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 767 | 1,103 | 69.5 | 9,260 | 75 | 27 | 27 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 619 | 1,086 | 57.0 | 9,043 | 69 | 27 | 1 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 713 | 1,064 | 67.0 | 9,430 | 82 | 22 | 1 |
| 2010 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 661 | 995 | 66.4 | 9,285 | 88 | 16 | 12 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 564 | 987 | 57.1 | 7,731 | 51 | 33 | 4 |
| 2011 | •• Christian Ponder, Minn. | 596 | 965 | 61.8 | 6,872 | 49 | 30 | 24 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 624 | 949 | 65.8 | 8,356 | 80 | 12 | -- |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 650 | 945 | 68.8 | 8,852 | 78 | 11 | 4 |
| 2011 | • Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 568 | 933 | 60.9 | 6,822 | 40 | 18 | 21 |
| 2013 | •• EJ Manuel, Buff. | 600 | 897 | 66.9 | 7,741 | 47 | 28 | 25 |
| 2010 | • Sam Bradford, St.L. | 604 | 893 | 67.6 | 8,403 | 88 | 16 | 19 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 585 | 891 | 65.7 | 7,598 | 56 | 19 | 2 |
| 2014 | •• Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 595 | 863 | 68.9 | 7,820 | 63 | 22 | -- |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 562 | 851 | 66.0 | 7,964 | 65 | 28 | 2 |
| 2018 | • Sam Darnold, NYJ | 549 | 846 | 64.9 | 7,229 | 57 | 22 | 18 |
| 2021 | •• Zach Wilson, NYJ | 566 | 837 | 67.6 | 7,652 | 56 | 15 | 31 |
| 2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 575 | 830 | 69.3 | 8,123 | 85 | 12 | -- |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 484 | 774 | 62.5 | 5,450 | 42 | 21 | 3 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 474 | 684 | 69.3 | 7,442 | 87 | 11 | 8 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 365 | 649 | 56.2 | 5,066 | 44 | 21 | 1 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 423 | 618 | 68.4 | 5,701 | 67 | 9 | 6 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 392 | 612 | 64.1 | 5,115 | 45 | 14 | 2 |
| 2019 | •• Dwayne Haskins, Wash. | 413 | 590 | 70.0 | 5,396 | 54 | 9 | -- |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 386 | 572 | 67.5 | 4,762 | 41 | 10 | 10 |
| 2021 | •• Mac Jones, N.E. | 413 | 556 | 74.3 | 6,126 | 56 | 7 | 26 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 350 | 519 | 67.4 | 5,406 | 50 | 14 | 3 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 313 | 487 | 64.3 | 3,965 | 41 | 16 | 10 |
| 2023 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 215 | 393 | 54.7 | 3,105 | 24 | 15 | -- |
| 2021 | •• Trey Lance, S.F. | 208 | 318 | 65.4 | 2,947 | 30 | 1 | -- |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 191 | 292 | 65.4 | 2,908 | 30 | 7 | 1 |
(Newton, by the way, is the only quarterback on the list with fewer than 300 college pass attempts, but he also played a season of junior college ball. He was a far more experienced quarterback coming in than either Richardson or Lance.)
—Ian Allan