We've discussed (argued about) Kenneth Walker some here in recent weeks. He had a productive rookie season, but Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round. A wide range of possibilities for Seattle's backfield exists, including a featured Walker, a one-two punch, or Charbonnet being better.
Preseason talk from coaches (especially Pete Carroll) is often meaningless, so we won't have a great idea of what to expect until the season begins. But I thought I'd at least take a look at what the history of rookie running backs like Walker suggests for their second season.
Walker last year, with Rashaad Penny getting hurt early on, rushed for 1,050 yards, finishing with 1,215 total yards and 9 touchdowns. Good enough to finish 2nd in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, behind Garrett Wilson. The question is whether it was good enough to ensure he's leading this backfield in year 2.
Since 2000, there have been 56 previous running backs to go over 1,000 total yards in their rookie seasons. Of those backs, 33 (almost 60 percent) came back and went over 1,000 total yards in year 2. Another five just missed (914-998 total yards). Twenty put up more total yards in year 2. Thirty-six of the 56 (almost two-thirds) finished with top-25 numbers for their position in PPR leagues the next season.
The table below is sorted by total yards in their second NFL season (that column shows run-rec-total-TDs in year 2).
1,000-YARD ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, ONE YEAR LATER (2000-PRESENT) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Next Year |
2008 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1,228 | 260 | 1,488 | 10 | 2,006-503-2,509-16 |
2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 860 | 399 | 1,259 | 8 | 1,361-854-2,215-11 |
2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 367 | 1603 | 10 | 1,683-489-2,172-15 |
2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1,169 | 299 | 1,468 | 12 | 1,811-360-2,171-20 |
2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 581 | 457 | 1,038 | 13 | 1,239-879-2,118-20 |
2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 651 | 1,086 | 7 | 1,098-867-1,965-13 |
2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1,508 | 364 | 1,872 | 17 | 1,591-314-1,905-14 |
2007 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1,341 | 268 | 1,609 | 13 | 1,760-125-1,885-10 |
2003 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 1,031 | 351 | 1,382 | 8 | 1,188-588-1,776-14 |
2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 996 | 149 | 1,145 | 10 | 1,494-278-1,772-8 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728 | 826 | 1,554 | 14 | 883-709-1,592-18 |
2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1,178 | 257 | 1,435 | 11 | 1,139-427-1,566-13 |
2019 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 889 | 185 | 1,074 | 7 | 1,070-438-1,508-10 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1,307 | 721 | 2,028 | 15 | 1,003-438-1,441-8 |
2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1,081 | 325 | 1,406 | 8 | 1,072-364-1,436-15 |
2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,238 | 477 | 1,715 | 12 | 929-471-1,400-4 |
2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1,613 | 77 | 1,690 | 13 | 1,275-78-1,353-7 |
2007 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1,115 | 184 | 1,299 | 7 | 1,036-300-1,336-9 |
2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 795 | 247 | 1,042 | 11 | 1,037-294-1,331-10 |
2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1,150 | 166 | 1,316 | 7 | 1,065-238-1,303-12 |
2005 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 232 | 1,139 | 5 | 1,008-276-1,284-5 |
2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1,200 | 467 | 1,667 | 10 | 1,034-229-1,263-10 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1,631 | 363 | 1,994 | 16 | 983-269-1,252-9 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1,313 | 298 | 1,611 | 7 | 1,122-125-1,247-9 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 | 885-327-1,212-6 |
2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1,037 | 241 | 1,278 | 10 | 1,011-196-1,207-7 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1,327 | 455 | 1,782 | 11 | 824-378-1,202-14 |
2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 941 | 436 | 1,377 | 16 | 768-407-1,175-10 |
2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 976 | 286 | 1,262 | 8 | 747-415-1,162-5 |
2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 213 | 1,160 | 9 | 779-372-1,151-8 |
2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 818 | 509 | 1,327 | 6 | 867-197-1,064-6 |
2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 652 | 371 | 1,023 | 4 | 660-395-1,055-5 |
2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 695 | 514 | 1,209 | 8 | 680-349-1,029-7 |
2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 742 | 1,307 | 9 | 581-417-998-6 |
2005 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1,178 | 81 | 1,259 | 6 | 798-196-994-1 |
2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1,070 | 344 | 1,414 | 10 | 767-222-989-8 |
2010 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 1,007 | 14 | 1,021 | 6 | 781-148-929-5 |
2011 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 897 | 183 | 1,080 | 2 | 663-251-914-4 |
2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 1,183 | 178 | 1,361 | 7 | 721-163-884-6 |
2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 | 563-316-879-4 |
2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1,124 | 215 | 1,339 | 9 | 794-79-873-12 |
2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1,282 | 377 | 1,659 | 10 | 437-417-854-7 |
2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 740 | 279 | 1,019 | 3 | 465-312-777-2 |
2004 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 1,133 | 180 | 1,313 | 6 | 664-109-773-5 |
2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 1,487 | 169 | 1,656 | 15 | 678-46-724-4 |
2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 487 | 1,042 | 6 | 390-287-677-3 |
2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 803 | 297 | 1,100 | 5 | 517-129-646-6 |
2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1,040 | 302 | 1,342 | 10 | 439-185-624-6 |
2002 | William Green, Cle. | 887 | 113 | 1,000 | 6 | 559-50-609-1 |
2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1,454 | 472 | 1,926 | 12 | 456-66-522-1 |
2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 973 | 141 | 1,114 | 8 | 293-152-445-1 |
2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 963 | 137 | 1,100 | 6 | 279-7-286-2 |
2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 903 | 316 | 1,219 | 7 | 204-76-280-0 |
2011 | Roy Helu, Was. | 640 | 379 | 1,019 | 3 | 2-45-47-0 |
2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 1,104 | 224 | 1,328 | 10 | Injured |
2000 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1,364 | 296 | 1,660 | 6 | Injured |
2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 1,050 | 165 | 1,215 | 9 | ??? |
2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 1,035 | 139 | 1,174 | 4 | ??? |
2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 939 | 165 | 1,104 | 5 | ??? |
Walker, of course, is one of three rookie running backs to go over 1,000 total yards last season. Another of those backs, Tyler Allgeier, saw the team add even more daunting backfield competition than Charbonnet in top-10 pick Bijan Robinson. Based on the history, seems like a couple of the three should come back and at least finish with top-25 numbers again in 2023.
--Andy Richardson