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Factoid

Kenneth Walker

1,000-yard rookies, one year later

We've discussed (argued about) Kenneth Walker some here in recent weeks. He had a productive rookie season, but Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round. A wide range of possibilities for Seattle's backfield exists, including a featured Walker, a one-two punch, or Charbonnet being better.

Preseason talk from coaches (especially Pete Carroll) is often meaningless, so we won't have a great idea of what to expect until the season begins. But I thought I'd at least take a look at what the history of rookie running backs like Walker suggests for their second season.

Walker last year, with Rashaad Penny getting hurt early on, rushed for 1,050 yards, finishing with 1,215 total yards and 9 touchdowns. Good enough to finish 2nd in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, behind Garrett Wilson. The question is whether it was good enough to ensure he's leading this backfield in year 2.

Since 2000, there have been 56 previous running backs to go over 1,000 total yards in their rookie seasons. Of those backs, 33 (almost 60 percent) came back and went over 1,000 total yards in year 2. Another five just missed (914-998 total yards). Twenty put up more total yards in year 2. Thirty-six of the 56 (almost two-thirds) finished with top-25 numbers for their position in PPR leagues the next season.

The table below is sorted by total yards in their second NFL season (that column shows run-rec-total-TDs in year 2).

1,000-YARD ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, ONE YEAR LATER (2000-PRESENT)
YearPlayerRunRecTotTDNext Year
2008Chris Johnson, Ten.1,2282601,488102,006-503-2,509-16
2013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.8603991,25981,361-854-2,215-11
2001LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.12363671603101,683-489-2,172-15
2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.1,1692991,468121,811-360-2,171-20
2015David Johnson, Ariz.5814571,038131,239-879-2,118-20
2017Christian McCaffrey, Car.4356511,08671,098-867-1,965-13
2002Clinton Portis, Den.1,5083641,872171,591-314-1,905-14
2007Adrian Peterson, Min.1,3412681,609131,760-125-1,885-10
2003Domanick Williams, Hou.1,0313511,38281,188-588-1,776-14
2018Nick Chubb, Cle.9961491,145101,494-278-1,772-8
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.7288261,55414883-709-1,592-18
2013Eddie Lacy, G.B.1,1782571,435111,139-427-1,566-13
2019David Montgomery, Chi.8891851,07471,070-438-1,508-10
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG1,3077212,028151,003-438-1,441-8
2006Joseph Addai, Ind.1,0813251,40681,072-364-1,436-15
2008Matt Forte, Chi.1,2384771,71512929-471-1,400-4
2012Alfred Morris, Was.1,613771,690131,275-78-1,353-7
2007Marshawn Lynch, Buff.1,1151841,29971,036-300-1,336-9
2020Antonio Gibson, Was.7952471,042111,037-294-1,331-10
2019Josh Jacobs, Oak.1,1501661,31671,065-238-1,303-12
2005Ronnie Brown, Mia.9072321,13951,008-276-1,284-5
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.1,2004671,667101,034-229-1,263-10
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.1,6313631,99416983-269-1,252-9
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.1,3132981,61171,122-125-1,247-9
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.1,1061881,29410885-327-1,212-6
2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.1,0372411,278101,011-196-1,207-7
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.1,3274551,78211824-378-1,202-14
2006Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.9414361,37716768-407-1,175-10
2008Kevin Smith, Det.9762861,2628747-415-1,162-5
2009Knowshon Moreno, Den.9472131,1609779-372-1,151-8
2019Miles Sanders, Phil.8185091,3276867-197-1,064-6
2013Andre Ellington, Ariz.6523711,0234660-395-1,055-5
2013Giovani Bernard, Cin.6955141,2098680-349-1,029-7
2006Reggie Bush, N.O.5657421,3079581-417-998-6
2005Cadillac Williams, T.B.1,178811,2596798-196-994-1
2020James Robinson, Jac.1,0703441,41410767-222-989-8
2010LeGarrette Blount, T.B.1,007141,0216781-148-929-5
2011DeMarco Murray, Dall.8971831,0802663-251-914-4
2001Anthony Thomas, Chi.1,1831781,3617721-163-884-6
2012Trent Richardson, Cle.9503671,31712563-316-879-4
2014Jeremy Hill, Cin.1,1242151,3399794-79-873-12
2008Steve Slaton, Hou.1,2823771,65910437-417-854-7
2015T.J. Yeldon, Jac.7402791,0193465-312-777-2
2004Kevin Jones, Det.1,1331801,3136664-109-773-5
2000Mike Anderson, Den.1,4871691,65615678-46-724-4
2010Jahvid Best, Det.5554871,0426390-287-677-3
2020Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.8032971,1005517-129-646-6
2017Leonard Fournette, Jac.1,0403021,34210439-185-624-6
2002William Green, Cle.8871131,0006559-50-609-1
2012Doug Martin, T.B.1,4544721,92612456-66-522-1
2013Zac Stacy, St.L.9731411,1148293-152-445-1
2021Elijah Mitchell, S.F.9631371,1006279-7-286-2
2021Javonte Williams, Den.9033161,2197204-76-280-0
2011Roy Helu, Was.6403791,01932-45-47-0
2001Dominic Rhodes, Ind.1,1042241,32810Injured
2000Jamal Lewis, Balt.1,3642961,6606Injured
2022Kenneth Walker, Sea.1,0501651,2159???
2022Tyler Allgeier, Atl.1,0351391,1744???
2022Dameon Pierce, Hou.9391651,1045???

Walker, of course, is one of three rookie running backs to go over 1,000 total yards last season. Another of those backs, Tyler Allgeier, saw the team add even more daunting backfield competition than Charbonnet in top-10 pick Bijan Robinson. Based on the history, seems like a couple of the three should come back and at least finish with top-25 numbers again in 2023.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index