When looking at incoming rookie quarterbacks, we tend to focus on the early picks -- the first-rounders, and occasionally the seconds or thirds. If a player has much hope of being a quality starter, NFL teams wouldn't let them fall any further, the theory goes. But then a Brock Purdy (pictured) comes along.
Purdy, famously, was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 Draft, and nearly led the 49ers to the Super Bowl. He got hurt early on in the NFC Championship Game, or who knows. It's a reminder that we can't just ignore the later-round quarterback picks. There might not be the next Dak Prescott, but there might be the next Purdy.
That being said, it's still pretty rare. In the last 10 years, I see only one other quarterback selected from the fourth round on who made much of an impact in fantasy leagues -- Gardner Minshew. Between his passing and his running, the sixth-rounder averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in each of his first two seasons in Jacksonville. He might well be starting at least some of this season for the Colts.
The other semi-notable late-rounder in the last decade is Mike White. Selected by the Jets in the fifth round, he had some strong games for New York the last couple of years. In the offseason he signed with the Dolphins and will probably be backing up Tua Tagovailoa, whose concussion history is well known. White might get some run working with two of the game's better wideouts at some point this year.
Table shows all quarterbacks selected from the fourth round on in the last decade, sorted by fantasy points per game (minimum 3 starts in a given year). The 2022 representatives are in bold.
| LATE-ROUND QBS, FANTASY POINTS PER GAME (2013-2022) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | FPG |
| 4 | 2020 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 5 | 1856 | 9 | 4 | 93 | 3 | 33.6 |
| 4 | 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4902 | 30 | 11 | 277 | 3 | 25.8 |
| 4 | 2021 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4449 | 37 | 10 | 146 | 1 | 24.8 |
| 6 | 2019 | Jeff Driskel, Det. | 3 | 685 | 4 | 4 | 151 | 1 | 24.3 |
| 6 | 2020 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 8 | 2259 | 16 | 5 | 153 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 4 | 2018 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 3885 | 22 | 8 | 305 | 6 | 22.0 |
| 4 | 2022 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 12 | 2860 | 23 | 15 | 182 | 1 | 21.6 |
| 4 | 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 3667 | 23 | 4 | 282 | 6 | 21.2 |
| 6 | 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 12 | 3271 | 21 | 6 | 344 | 0 | 20.6 |
| 4 | 2017 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 3324 | 22 | 13 | 357 | 6 | 20.4 |
| 5 | 2022 | Mike White, NYJ | 4 | 1192 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 19.6 |
| 7 | 2021 | Trevor Siemian, N.O. | 4 | 1154 | 11 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 18.3 |
| 7 | 2016 | Trevor Siemian, Den. | 14 | 3401 | 18 | 10 | 57 | 0 | 17.8 |
| 5 | 2021 | Mike White, NYJ | 3 | 953 | 5 | 8 | -1 | 0 | 17.4 |
| 4 | 2016 | Matt Barkley, Chi. | 6 | 1611 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 17.1 |
| 7 | 2017 | Trevor Siemian, Den. | 10 | 2285 | 12 | 14 | 127 | 1 | 16.5 |
| 5 | 2017 | Brett Hundley, G.B. | 9 | 1836 | 9 | 12 | 270 | 2 | 15.5 |
| 6 | 2020 | Jake Luton, Jac. | 3 | 624 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 15.5 |
| 6 | 2014 | Zach Mettenberger, Ten. | 6 | 1412 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 14.7 |
| 7 | 2022 | Brock Purdy, S.F. | 5 | 1374 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 14.2 |
| 6 | 2019 | Brandon Allen, Den. | 3 | 515 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 6 | 2020 | Brandon Allen, Cin. | 5 | 925 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 4 | 2019 | Ryan Finley, Cin. | 3 | 474 | 2 | 2 | 77 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 6 | 2022 | Sam Ehlinger, Ind. | 3 | 573 | 3 | 3 | 87 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 4 | 2017 | Tom Savage, Hou. | 7 | 1412 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11.4 |
| 6 | 2018 | Jeff Driskel, Cin. | 5 | 1003 | 6 | 2 | 130 | 2 | 11.2 |
| 5 | 2015 | AJ McCarron, Cin. | 3 | 854 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 6 | 2015 | Zach Mettenberger, Ten. | 4 | 935 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 9.9 |
| 4 | 2016 | Bryce Petty, NYJ | 4 | 809 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 9.4 |
| 4 | 2017 | Bryce Petty, NYJ | 3 | 544 | 1 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 9.2 |
Two guys who didn't make the list from last year (not enough starts) might be factors this year. Patriots fourth-rounder Bailey Zappe and Commanders fifth-rounder Sam Howell. Zappe could conceivably move past Mac Jones at some point, while Howell seems likely to be a Week 1 starter. Three late-round success stories from the same draft would be impressive.
From the 2023 NFL Draft, I see a couple of guys who at least can be mentioned. The Rams drafted Stetson Bennett in the fourth round. Bennett is Bryce Young-sized, but the Rams used a relatively high pick on him and Matthew Stafford's health is suspect at this point. Bennett put up huge numbers for National Champion Georgia, finishing 4th in the Heisman voting. If there's a Purdy in this draft, let's go with Bennett.
The Chargers selected Max Duggan in the seventh round. Safe to say he'll never be more than a backup on Justin Herbert's team. But maybe he shows enough in the preseason that the Chargers are able to flip him for a better draft pick. Duggan was the Heisman runnerup last year and had 41 total touchdowns for Texas Christian (32 pass, 9 run).
--Andy Richardson