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Ian Allan

Cover Jinx

Jefferson the latest to take on formidable cover jinx

Justin Jefferson is on the cover of the 2023 version of our magazine. Hurray? If history is any indication, that’s probably not a good thing.

Some are of the school of thought that there’s a Fantasy Index cover jinx. None of the players we’ve put on the cover in this century have gone on to finish as the highest-scoring player at their position. Only nine of those 23 have even finished as the No. 1 guy at their own position.

It’s a tradition that dates all the way back to our first issue. Dan Marino threw 44 touchdowns in 1986. In the following season (which was shortened by a strike) he dipped down to only 26 in 12 games.

For most of the ‘90s, we went with regional covers (with different players appearing in different markets). We returned to a one-cover format with Randy Moss in 1999, and since that time, the tendency has been for the players featured on the cover to decline, and usually by a bunch.

Totaling up the damage, the last 24 cover subjects have played in 79 fewer games, with 19,606 fewer yards and 248 fewer touchdowns. Breaking it down, the declines include 10,486 passing yards, 131 TD passes, 6,209 rushing yards, 193 receptions, 2,911 receiving yards and 117 fewer touchdowns.

Using PPR scoring, no FFI cover player has led his position in scoring since Emmitt Smith and Jerry Rice in the mid-‘90s. Those guys both strong together four-year strings leading their positions in scoring during the ‘90s, and both were on multiple regional covers at that time. Rice would be the only true such player; he was our only cover player in 1989, and he was the most productive wide receiver that year.

It hasn’t happened recently.

COVER PLAYERS (rank at position)
YearCoverBefAfter
1999Randy Moss, Min.2nd3rd
2000Kurt Warner, St.L.1st13th
2001Daunte Culpepper, Min.1st15th
2002Terrell Owens, S.F.2nd3rd
2003Ricky Williams, Mia.3rd9th
2004Priest Holmes, K.C.1st18th
2005Tatum Bell, Den.63rd24th
2006Shaun Alexander, Sea.1st33rd
2007LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1st2nd
2008Tom Brady, N.E.1st61st
2009Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.2nd5th
2010Chris Johnson, Ten.1st6th
2011Arian Foster, Hou.1st3rd
2012Rob Gronkowski, N.E.1st5th
2013Adrian Peterson, Min.1st10th
2014Peyton Manning, Den.1st3rd
2015Andrew Luck, Ind.1st27th
2016LeVeon Bell, Pitt.49th3rd
2017Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.2nd12th
2018Todd Gurley, LAR1st3rd
2019Saquon Barkley, NYG2nd11th
2020Christian McCaffrey, Car.1st54th
2021Patrick Mahomes, K.C.4th4th
2022Jonathan Taylor, Ind.1st33rd
2023Justin Jefferson, Min.1st?

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index