There are been some underperforming offenses. At this point, the Jaguars, Falcons, Steelers, Saints and Bengals all rank outside the top 20 in scoring. But at the same time, we’ve played only three weeks.
If form holds, some of these offense that have sputtered will get things put together, while some of the teams that are putting up numbers will decline. Happens every year. So best not to overreact when an offense runs into a tough defense – 49ers, Browns, Cowboys, etc. – or simply has an off game.
Consider the numbers from last year. The first column shows how many points teams averaged in the first half of the season. The second column shows the scoring average for the remaining games.
In 2022 (and this year will likely be similar) four of the teams ranked in the top 10 in scoring in the first half of the season in the final nine weeks were below-average. (Those teams are tagged with black dots.) And similarly, four of the teams in the bottom 10 in scoring at the halfway point last year were above-average the rest of the way. (Those teams are in bold.)
It's a long season. Teams will figure things out. Key players will get injured, benched, arrested or traded. Makes sense to adjust and tweak player values, but there’s also some sense in not forgetting the reasoning behind your initial player grades.
I would not (as an example) be giving up on Trevor Lawrence.
| SCORING: FIRST VS. SECOND HALF OF SEASON | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Wk 1-9 | Wk 10- | Diff |
| Kansas City | 30.4 | 28.1 | -2.3 |
| Philadelphia | 28.2 | 28.0 | -.2 |
| Buffalo | 27.5 | 29.4 | 1.9 |
| • Seattle | 26.8 | 20.8 | -6.0 |
| • Baltimore | 26.1 | 14.4 | -11.7 |
| Cincinnati | 25.4 | 27.1 | 1.7 |
| • Cleveland | 25.0 | 17.9 | -7.1 |
| Minnesota | 24.2 | 25.7 | 1.5 |
| • Atlanta | 24.1 | 18.5 | -5.6 |
| Miami | 23.7 | 23.0 | -.7 |
| New Orleans | 23.6 | 14.8 | -8.8 |
| Detroit | 23.5 | 29.4 | 5.9 |
| LA Chargers | 23.0 | 23.0 | .0 |
| Dallas | 22.9 | 31.6 | 8.7 |
| Las Vegas | 22.9 | 23.6 | .7 |
| Arizona | 22.6 | 17.1 | -5.5 |
| New England | 22.6 | 20.1 | -2.5 |
| Jacksonville | 22.1 | 25.6 | 3.5 |
| San Francisco | 22.0 | 30.4 | 8.4 |
| NY Jets | 21.8 | 12.5 | -9.3 |
| Chicago | 20.8 | 17.4 | -3.4 |
| NY Giants | 20.4 | 22.4 | 2.0 |
| Carolina | 19.9 | 21.0 | 1.1 |
| Tennessee | 18.6 | 16.6 | -2.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 18.0 | 18.9 | .9 |
| Washington | 17.7 | 20.3 | 2.6 |
| Green Bay | 17.1 | 27.0 | 9.9 |
| Houston | 16.6 | 17.3 | .7 |
| LA Rams | 16.4 | 19.6 | 3.2 |
| Denver | 15.2 | 18.4 | 3.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 15.0 | 20.9 | 5.9 |
| Indianapolis | 14.7 | 19.6 | 4.9 |
—Ian Allan