The Broncos were embarrassed at Miami a few days ago, losing 70-20. And yet here we are with Denver facing the trainwreck Chicago Bears this week, and I'm thinking about picking up their defense to play against them. Crazy?
In my head, I'm thinking that teams coming off a loss like Denver's will rise up and play tough the next week. Interestingly, the Broncos themselves have recent experience in this area. Late last year, they got humiliated by the Rams (on Christmas Day, no less) by a 51-14 score, and Nathaniel Hackett was fired. Denver lost the next week, but they did better than expected, losing 27-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champion, Kansas City.
In the last 10 years, there have been 32 instances of a team losing while giving up at least 50 points. How did they fare one week later?
Nearly half (14) of those teams came back and won their next game. And of the 18 losers, 13 of them lost by less than a touchdown -- they responded and seemingly played well. Eight of the losses were by just 1-3 points.
Only three of those 32 teams came back and got blown out a week later. (One of them, Chicago in 2014, gave up 50 points again; ouch.) Those teams are bolded in the table below. As it happens, one of those teams that got rolled two weeks in a row was the 2017 Denver Broncos. I don't think they'll be getting rolled by the Bears, but clearly a win can't be taken for granted.
| DEFENSES GIVING UP 50 POINTS, ONE WEEK LATER | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Opponent | Year | Result | Next? | Defense |
| Chicago | at Phi. | 2013 | L 11-54 | L 33-28 | 3 sacks, 2 takeaways |
| Dallas | Den. | 2013 | L 48-51 | W 31-16 | 3 sacks, 2 takeaways |
| Oakland | K.C. | 2013 | L 31-56 | L 26-13 | 1 sack, 3 takeaways |
| Philadelphia | at Den. | 2013 | L 20-52 | W 36-21 | 1 sack, 4 takeaways |
| Pittsburgh | at N.E. | 2013 | L 31-55 | W 23-10 | 4 sacks, 1 takeaway |
| Tennessee | at Den. | 2013 | L 28-51 | L 37-34 | 1 sack, 0 takeaway |
| Chicago | at N.E. | 2014 | L 23-51 | L 55-14 | 0 sack, 1 takeaway |
| Chicago | at G.B. | 2014 | L 14-55 | W 21-13 | 2 sacks, 1 takeaway |
| Indianapolis | at Pit. | 2014 | L 34-51 | W 40-24 | 3 sacks, 1 takeaway |
| Oakland | at St.L. | 2014 | L 0-52 | W 24-13 | 5 sacks, 2 takeaways |
| Philadelphia | at G.B. | 2014 | L 20-53 | W 43-24 | 5 sacks, 3 takeaways |
| Tampa Bay | at Atl. | 2014 | L 14-56 | W 27-24 | 5 sacks, 1 takeaway |
| Indianapolis | at Jac. | 2015 | L 16-51 | L 16-10 | 3 sacks, 2 takeaways |
| Jacksonville | at N.E. | 2015 | L 17-51 | L 16-13 | 3 sacks, 2 takeaways |
| N.Y. Giants | at N.O. | 2015 | L 49-52 | W 32-18 | 0 sack, 3 takeaways |
| Buffalo | at LAC | 2017 | L 24-54 | W 16-10 | 2 sacks, 1 takeaway |
| Denver | at Phi. | 2017 | L 23-51 | L 41-16 | 1 sack, 0 takeaway |
| Detroit | at N.O. | 2017 | L 38-52 | L 20-15 | 0 sack, 2 takeaways |
| N.Y. Giants | LAR | 2017 | L 17-51 | L 31-21 | 0 sack, 2 takeaways |
| Tennessee | at Hou. | 2017 | L 14-57 | L 16-10 | 1 sack, 2 takeaways |
| Carolina | at Pit. | 2018 | L 21-52 | L 20-19 | 1 sack, 0 takeaway |
| Cincinnati | N.O. | 2018 | L 14-51 | L 24-21 | 3 sacks, 1 takeaway |
| Atlanta | at Hou. | 2019 | L 32-53 | L 34-33 | 0 sack, 0 takeaway |
| Carolina | at S.F. | 2019 | L 13-51 | W 30-20 | 4 sacks, 3 takeaways |
| L.A. Rams | T.B. | 2019 | L 40-55 | L 30-29 | 1 sack, 1 takeaway |
| Miami | Balt. | 2019 | L 10-59 | L 43-0 | 2 sacks, 1 takeaway |
| Minnesota | at N.O. | 2020 | L 33-52 | W 37-35 | 1 sack, 2 takeaways |
| Jacksonville | at N.E. | 2021 | L 10-50 | W 26-11 | 6 sacks, 2 takeaways |
| N.Y. Jets | at N.E. | 2021 | L 13-54 | W 34-31 | 3 sacks, 1 takeaway |
| Washington | at Dal. | 2021 | L 14-56 | L 20-16 | 1 sack, 0 takeaway |
| Denver | at LAR | 2022 | L 14-51 | L 27-24 | 0 sack, 2 takeaways |
| Indianapolis | at Dal. | 2022 | L 19-54 | L 39-36 | 7 sacks, 4 takeaways |
| Denver | at Mia. | 2023 | L 20-70 | ??? | ??? |
As the final column of the table shows, the fantasy results from most of those embarrassed defenses one week later were solid. Nearly half (14) recorded at least 3 sacks, and just over half (17) recorded multiple takeaways. That's what I'm looking for out of my fantasy defense -- 3 sacks and a couple of takeaways. I think there's a decent chance Justin Fields and company will comply.
--Andy Richardson