The Patriots are a lesser team. At 1-5, they’re looking like they’ll be finishing in last in their division. They still, however, look like an unfavorable matchup for fantasy purposes. They can still play credible defense – particularly against good receivers.
Buffalo is playing at New England this week, and I don’t consider it to be a tap-in matchup for Stefon Diggs. He’s gone for 100-plus yards in four straight games, but I expect that streak will end on Sunday.
For all of New England’s problems, opposing offenses haven’t been lighting them up. Setting aside 4 touchdowns scored on returns of turnovers, the Patriots defense has allowed only 11 touchdowns in six games (fewer than 2 per week, on average). And only nine teams are allowing fewer yards (the Patriots rank in the top 15 against both the run and the pass).
New England has been particularly good at not getting torched by big-time receivers. The Patriots have played against a big-time receiver in all six of their games, but none of those guys has had what you would call a big game.
| NO. 1 RECEIVERS AGAINST NEW ENGLAND | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk | Player | Tgt | No | Yds | Avg | Lg | TD |
| 1 | A.J. Brown | 10 | 7 | 79 | 11.3 | 23 | 0 |
| 2 | Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 9 | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 15 | 1 |
| 3 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 9 | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 29 | 0 |
| 4 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 6 | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 20t | 1 |
| 5 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 5 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 7 | 1 |
| 6 | Davante Adams, L.V. | 5 | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 21 | 0 |
| 7 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
A.J. Brown caught 7 passes against them back in Week 1, but they went for only 79 yards, and with no touchdowns. And all five of the other No. 1 guys they’ve seen the last five weeks have finished with fewer than 50 yards. They held Tyreek Hill to 5 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets. (As well as Hill has been playing, I consider that to be a win for the defense.)
As well as Diggs is playing, of course, this is largely an academic exercise. He’s caught 49 passes for 620 yards and 5 TDs. He caught 7 passes and scored in each of his games against Buffalo last year. Also note that the Patriots in recent weeks have lost two of their key defenders, Matthew Judon and rookie corner Christian Gonzalez. Nobody is sitting down Diggs in Week 7.
But as well as Diggs is playing, I would think that he’ll be at least a little off that pace. If we’re in one of those contests (like the Fantasy Index Blackout) where you’re picking the top 2-3 receivers, I would think this would be a week where it would make sense to go with other guys.
—Ian Allan