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Andy Richardson

January 05, 2024

Week 18 Superstars

Nobody running backs fare best

Week 18 is here, and though most fantasy leagues don't play this week, some do. And there are gambling and FanDuel and DraftKings type games available. A lot of teams are playing backups this week. Will any of them deliver top performances?

Using the search tools at pro-football-reference, I looked for all of the top performers in the final week of the NFL season from the last 10 years. Week 18 the last two seasons, Week 17 prior to that (16-game schedule until recently). I was curious whether the stars were the big-name guys you'd expect, or more lesser lights.

The results seem to show that if you're looking for nobody players who put up strong numbers in the final week of the season, best to go after running backs. Like perhaps Kansas City's LaMical Perine (pictured, in Jets uniform).

This makes sense, in that teams with nothing to play for will be most to apt to get players at the position that takes the most punishment out of the lineup. And also that since it is the position where there are the most injuries, you're most apt to end up with backups starting late in the year.

There were a few examples of nobody wide receivers putting up top numbers, and a couple of tight ends. Just one quarterback. But a lot of running backs.

Table shows the top performers at each of those key positions in the final week of the season over the last decade (over 25 PPR points at QB, over 20 at the other positions). Players in bold are ones I deemed lesser lights and/or usual backups putting up big numbers. I was doing this by memory and name recognition, so it's possible I somebody I bolded was actually a regular starter, or left unbolded was also a backup. But should be mostly accurate.

WEEK 18 TOP PERFORMERS, 2013-2022
YearPlayerOppPassTDRunNoRecTDPPR
QUARTERBACKS
2018Josh Allen, Buf.Mia.22439500240.5
2013Drew Brees, N.O.T.B.3814800138.0
2020Cam Newton, N.E.NYJ242379119137.5
2020Kirk Cousins, Min.at Det.4053100134.3
2016Aaron Rodgers, G.B.at Det.30044200034.2
2018Dak Prescott, Dall.at NYG3874000033.5
2020Justin Herbert, LACat K.C.3023900133.0
2015Cam Newton, Car.T.B.29321000232.7
2021Dak Prescott, Dall.at Phil.2955000031.8
2020Tom Brady, T.B.Atl.3994300030.3
2018Jameis Winston, T.B.Atl.34542300030.1
2019Dak Prescott, Dall.Wash.30343500029.6
2016Matt Ryan, Atl.N.O.3314200029.4
2018Matt Ryan, Atl.at T.B.3782715129.3
2020Ryan Tannehill, Tenn.at Hou.21613800228.4
2017Philip Rivers, LACOak.3873500028.0
2021Justin Herbert, LACat L.V.3833100027.4
2021Davis Mills, Hou.Tenn.30131200027.2
2017Matthew Stafford, Det.G.B.3233200027.1
RUNNING BACKS
2019Derrick Henry, Tenn.at Hou.0021100339.1
2013Matt Forte, Chi.G.B.00110447337.7
2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.Jac.0025311237.4
2019Boston Scott, Phil.at NYG0054484335.8
2020Derrick Henry, Tenn.at Hou.0025000235.0
2019Damien Williams, K.C.LAC00124430231.4
2013LeGarrette Blount, N.E.Buff0018900230.9
2014C.J. Anderson, Den.Oak.0087220330.7
2019Joe Mixon, Cin.Cle.00162114230.6
2020J.K. Dobbins, Balt.at Cin.0016000228.0
2020Alexander Mattison, Minn.at Det.0095350226.5
2016Rex Burkhead, Cin.Balt.00119225226.4
2021Rashaad Penny, Sea.at Ariz.0019000125.0
2021Austin Ekeler, LACat L.V.0064535223.9
2016Devonta Freeman, Atl.N.O.0096581123.7
2016Charcandrick West, K.C.at S.D.0058558223.6
2015Rashad Jennings, NYGPhil.0017026123.6
2021Devin Singletary, Buff.NYJ0088224223.2
2020Darwin Thompson, K.C.LAC0045765223.0
2016Jerick McKinnon, Minn.Chi.0089321223.0
2016Devontae Booker, Den.Oak.0057252222.9
2016Shaun Draughn, S.F.Sea.0041468222.9
WIDE RECEIVERS
2014Eric Decker, NYJat Mia.00010221138.1
2014Michael Floyd, Ariz.at S.F.0008153235.3
2019Michael Gallup, Dall.Wash.000598332.8
2013Jerrel Jernigan, NYGWash.0057690232.7
2020Marvin Jones, Det.Minn.0008180230.0
2020Brandin Cooks, Hou.Tenn.00011166228.6
2020Antonio Brown, T.B.Atl.00011138225.8
2020Sterling Shepard, NYGDall.00248112225.6
2021Danny Amendola, Hou.Tenn.0007113225.3
2020Chris Godwin, T.B.Atl.0005133225.3
2021Deebo Samuel, S.F.at LAR24145495125.0
2020Isaiah McKenzie, Buff.Mia.000665224.5
2021Cedrick Wilson, Dall.at Phil.0005119223.9
2016Julian Edelman, N.E.at Mia.0068151123.7
2015Antonio Brown, Pitt.at Clev.00013187122.7
2022Keenan Allen, LACat Den.0008102222.2
2021Tyler Lockett, Sea.at Ariz.002598222.0
2020Jerry Jeudy, Den.L.V.0005140122.0
2016Michael Thomas, N.O.at Atl.00010156121.6
2021Jauan Jennings, S.F.at LAR000694221.4
2020A.J. Brown, Tenn.at Hou.00010151121.1
2020Tyler Lockett, Sea.at S.F.0001290221.0
TIGHT ENDS
2018Blake Jarwin, Dall.at NYG0007119336.9
2016Zach Ertz, Phil.Dall.00013139225.9
2022Jordan Akins, Hou.at Ind.000470221.0

I notice multiple running backs from Kansas City on the list. Part of that is because Kansas City, a perennial power, has had more opportunities to rest starters in the final week. But they're in that situation again, so maybe Perine will be that top performer. San Francisco also put a nobody on the list (and somebody else who didn't quite make the cut, Jeff Wilson), so maybe they'll have a star -- Jordan Mason, or someone off the practice squad.

Had I gone back a little earlier, I'd have certainly pulled up Matt Flynn, who threw 6 touchdowns for Green Bay in a Week 17 game back in the 2011 season. But such games are rare lately for quarterbacks. If it's gonna happen, though, there are a whole lot of candidate this season, with Jeff Driskel, Sam Darnold, Blaine Gabbert and Carson Wentz among the lesser lights coming off the bench to start this week. So maybe.

But seems like running back is the position to target if you're looking for somebody on the waiver wire for a Week 18 game.

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