You’ve got the hand it to Matt Nagy. He’s hanging in there with those wide receiver running plays. They rarely amount to much, but he keeps calling them.
It nearly cost Kansas City the game yesterday. They gave Mecole Hardman the ball on an end-around early in the second quarter and he fumbled, with KC fortunate that Justin Watson was able to land on it. And late in the game they went back to Hardman on a pop pass (officially a pass but a similar play) at the goal line that resulted in a fumble through the end zone, keeping Buffalo in the game.
Kansas City has been plugging away with those receiver runs all year, and they almost never work. Kadarius Toney is their usual player of choice in those situations. He’s got 2 runs that have gone for 14 years, but his other 9 carries have generated a grand total of 3 yards.
With Toney sidelined by a hip injury, they’ve instead used Hardman on those plays in the postseason. Hardman lost 4 yards on his carry against Miami and lost a yard on his running play yesterday (the one Watson saved him on).
Rashee Rice carried the ball once in the regular season; it lost 3 yards. They’ve had more success with Skyy Moore; his 3 running plays have resulted in gains of 11, 8 and 4 yards. Moore might be activated off IR this week, but they used Toney rather than Moore on running plays for the bulk of the season.
Overall, I’ve got Kansas City’s wide receivers at 18 carries for 49 yards. That’s 2.7 yards per attempt. That’s better than only six other teams. Of the other teams that have averaged at least one receiver run per game (I’ve got them tagged with black dots) they’ve tended to average over twice as many yards on those plays.
You would think Nagy, with those plays tending to come up short, would move away from them. But he’s continuing to make that a regular part of the offense.
| RUSHING BY WIDE RECEIVERS (yards per carry) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| NY Giants | 10 | 93 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Detroit | 14 | 128 | 9.1 | 1 |
| • Dallas | 32 | 269 | 8.4 | 3 |
| • Green Bay | 20 | 161 | 8.1 | 2 |
| New England | 16 | 122 | 7.6 | 0 |
| • Tampa Bay | 18 | 135 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 0 |
| • Las Vegas | 17 | 119 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Baltimore | 13 | 89 | 6.8 | 1 |
| • Arizona | 31 | 206 | 6.6 | 1 |
| • LA Rams | 23 | 151 | 6.6 | 0 |
| • Carolina | 21 | 135 | 6.4 | 1 |
| • San Francisco | 41 | 254 | 6.2 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 1 |
| • LA Chargers | 21 | 125 | 6.0 | 0 |
| New Orleans | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| • Houston | 23 | 131 | 5.7 | 0 |
| NY Jets | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 1 |
| • Chicago | 22 | 116 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Washington | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Indianapolis | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Miami | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Cleveland | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Denver | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| • Kansas City | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Seattle | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jacksonville | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
Among wide receivers with at least 10 rushing attempts, Toney has been by far the least effective in the league, down at 2.8 per attempt.
| WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 10 RUNNING PLAYS (yards per carry) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tm | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Jayden Reed, G.B. | G.B. | 11 | 119 | 10.8 | 2 |
| KaVontae Turpin, Dall. | Dall. | 11 | 110 | 10.0 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | Dall. | 14 | 113 | 8.1 | 2 |
| Tre Tucker, L.V. | L.V. | 10 | 77 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | LAR | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Derius Davis, LAC | LAC | 14 | 101 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore, Ari. | Ari. | 28 | 178 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | S.F. | 37 | 225 | 6.1 | 5 |
| Calvin Austin, Pitt. | Pitt. | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Tank Dell, Hou. | Hou. | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault, Car. | Car. | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney, K.C. | K.C. | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
When Kansas City uses Hardman and Toney in the passing game, it tends to be in the same kind of way – short passes around the line of scrimmage that don’t amount to much. Toney saw 38 targets in the regular season, and they amount to 27 catches for 169 yards, with 1 TD. That’s 6.3 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per pass play.
For Hardman, he’s played six games with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. He’s seen 14 targets in those games, resulting in 10 catches for 46 yards.
If KC is able to overcome Baltimore, it won’t be with Toney or Hardman contributing key plays on runs and pop passes.
—Ian Allan