Alvin Kamara turns 29 this summer and has a big contract, so it's fair to wonder if he'll be on the Saints roster in 2024. But it's currently a $17 million hit against the cap even if the team were to release him, and local beat writer Nick Underhill apparently believes he'll return. The question is whether his fantasy value will increase or decrease in the new offense.
The Saints have replaced coordinator Pete Carmichael -- with New Orleans for Kamara's entire career -- with Klint Kubiak, who last helmed an offense in 2021, with the Vikings. The last two years he's been an offensive assistant with the Broncos and 49ers, which is kind of a mixed bag. Denver's offense in 2022 was a disaster. San Francisco's was great, but it's fair to wonder how responsible for it Kubiak was (it's Kyle Shanahan's offense, and Kubiak was one of three assistants, listed as Passing Game Coordinator).
San Francisco had arguably the game's best pass-catching running back in Christian McCaffrey, while Kubiak's 2021 Vikings completed 66 passes to Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, so reasonable to think Kamara's involvement as a pass catcher will remain strong. But it's also fair to wonder how much of what Carmichael was doing with Kamara will continue into 2024.
Kamara last season averaged just 6.2 yards per catch, which was worst among all running backs to see at least 75 targets a year ago. He also averaged just 5.4 yards per target. That was not only worst among running backs with that kind of volume a year ago, it was one of the dozen worst numbers from the last decade. (McCaffrey last year was tops in this regard of the 75-target backs, up at 6.8 in San Francisco's offense, but he's been one of the best for most of his career.)
The hope, then, is that the passes thrown in Kamara's direction will be a little more productive, rather than short balls that don't go anywhere. Might mean fewer catches for him, bringing his value down in PPR leagues, but (theoretically) more big plays. Although whether that will actually happen in New Orleans' Derek Carr-led offense remains to be seen.
Table shows running backs with 75 targets the last 10 years, sorted by yards per target. Kamara shows up multiple times, including with one of the best numbers -- but that was back in his rookie season of 2017, playing as the sidekick to main runner Mark Ingram. Seven years later, he's probably not that guy anymore.
| RUNNING BACK YARDS PER TARGET, 2014-2023 (75+ TARGETS) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Tgt | No | Rec | Avg | TD | Y/Tgt |
| 2019 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 557 | 108 | 92 | 993 | 10.8 | 11 | 9.19 |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1305 | 87 | 64 | 788 | 12.3 | 19 | 9.06 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728 | 100 | 81 | 826 | 10.2 | 14 | 8.26 |
| 2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1361 | 105 | 83 | 854 | 10.3 | 11 | 8.13 |
| 2018 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 444 | 91 | 71 | 725 | 10.2 | 8 | 7.97 |
| 2018 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | 259 | 81 | 68 | 607 | 8.9 | 1 | 7.49 |
| 2017 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 348 | 93 | 74 | 693 | 9.4 | 7 | 7.45 |
| 2016 | David Johnson, Ari. | 1239 | 120 | 80 | 879 | 11.0 | 20 | 7.33 |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1251 | 81 | 59 | 580 | 9.8 | 21 | 7.16 |
| 2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 336 | 106 | 80 | 755 | 9.4 | 9 | 7.12 |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1387 | 142 | 116 | 1005 | 8.7 | 19 | 7.08 |
| 2020 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 932 | 107 | 83 | 756 | 9.1 | 21 | 7.07 |
| 2015 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 133 | 99 | 80 | 697 | 8.7 | 3 | 7.04 |
| 2018 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1098 | 124 | 107 | 867 | 8.1 | 13 | 6.99 |
| 2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 911 | 94 | 70 | 647 | 9.2 | 20 | 6.88 |
| 2022 | Christian McCaffrey, 2TM | 1139 | 108 | 85 | 741 | 8.7 | 13 | 6.86 |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 1459 | 83 | 67 | 564 | 8.4 | 21 | 6.80 |
| 2019 | James White, N.E. | 263 | 95 | 72 | 645 | 9.0 | 6 | 6.79 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 883 | 105 | 81 | 709 | 8.8 | 18 | 6.75 |
| 2016 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1268 | 94 | 75 | 616 | 8.2 | 9 | 6.55 |
| 2016 | James White, N.E. | 166 | 86 | 60 | 551 | 9.2 | 5 | 6.41 |
| 2022 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 897 | 77 | 57 | 490 | 8.6 | 4 | 6.36 |
| 2020 | Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 380 | 76 | 63 | 482 | 7.7 | 7 | 6.34 |
| 2022 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 668 | 83 | 73 | 523 | 7.2 | 6 | 6.30 |
| 2018 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 414 | 78 | 55 | 487 | 8.9 | 5 | 6.24 |
| 2023 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 994 | 95 | 76 | 591 | 7.8 | 9 | 6.22 |
| 2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1038 | 130 | 102 | 808 | 7.9 | 10 | 6.22 |
| 2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1291 | 106 | 85 | 655 | 7.7 | 11 | 6.18 |
| 2015 | Shane Vereen, NYG | 260 | 81 | 59 | 495 | 8.4 | 4 | 6.11 |
| 2018 | James White, N.E. | 425 | 123 | 87 | 751 | 8.6 | 12 | 6.11 |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1434 | 95 | 77 | 567 | 7.4 | 9 | 5.97 |
| 2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 1056 | 97 | 73 | 578 | 7.9 | 14 | 5.96 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 121 | 91 | 721 | 7.9 | 15 | 5.96 |
| 2019 | LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 789 | 78 | 66 | 461 | 7.0 | 4 | 5.91 |
| 2022 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 814 | 75 | 60 | 441 | 7.4 | 9 | 5.88 |
| 2018 | David Johnson, Ari. | 940 | 76 | 50 | 446 | 8.9 | 10 | 5.87 |
| 2017 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 1138 | 77 | 59 | 448 | 7.6 | 8 | 5.82 |
| 2014 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 391 | 77 | 52 | 447 | 8.6 | 5 | 5.81 |
| 2021 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 617 | 78 | 62 | 452 | 7.3 | 7 | 5.79 |
| 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 113 | 80 | 651 | 8.1 | 7 | 5.76 |
| 2017 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 1105 | 83 | 58 | 476 | 8.2 | 12 | 5.73 |
| 2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 915 | 127 | 107 | 722 | 6.7 | 18 | 5.69 |
| 2023 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 976 | 86 | 58 | 487 | 8.4 | 8 | 5.66 |
| 2014 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 525 | 90 | 66 | 501 | 7.6 | 3 | 5.57 |
| 2019 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 797 | 97 | 81 | 533 | 6.6 | 6 | 5.49 |
| 2023 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 694 | 86 | 75 | 466 | 6.2 | 6 | 5.42 |
| 2021 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 812 | 84 | 69 | 454 | 6.6 | 10 | 5.40 |
| 2020 | J.D. McKissic, Was. | 365 | 110 | 80 | 589 | 7.4 | 3 | 5.35 |
| 2018 | Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 314 | 81 | 63 | 425 | 6.8 | 4 | 5.25 |
| 2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1152 | 100 | 76 | 522 | 6.9 | 3 | 5.22 |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1200 | 94 | 74 | 467 | 6.3 | 10 | 4.97 |
| 2022 | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 1040 | 88 | 69 | 421 | 6.1 | 6 | 4.78 |
| 2015 | Darren Sproles, Phil. | 317 | 83 | 55 | 388 | 7.1 | 6 | 4.67 |
| 2022 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1312 | 76 | 57 | 338 | 5.9 | 10 | 4.45 |
| 2019 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 213 | 104 | 79 | 456 | 5.8 | 3 | 4.38 |
| 2017 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 938 | 88 | 59 | 350 | 5.9 | 8 | 3.98 |
In general, I'm thinking 29-year-old Kamara will be catching fewer passes, but maybe they'll do a better job of getting him in space so those receptions can be a little more productive. The team will also probably work in Kendre Miller more. And that's assuming they don't find some financially feasible way to get Kamara off the roster.
--Andy Richardson