Running backs will not be coveted in the upcoming draft. None will be selected in the first round, and I’m not positive that one will even be chosen in the second. But if form holds, there will be multiple first-round running backs who will make an impact in the 2024 season.
The lack of interest in the draft is fueled by the position in general becoming devalued. There are plenty of free agent running backs available, and a growing number of teams have been opting to go cheap at the position, figuring it’s better to use those resources on other positions. Kansas City has won the last two Super Bowls with lightly regarded Isiah Pacheco starting at tailback. Baltimore hosted the AFC Championship game while relying predominantly on a cast of lesser running backs – Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell.
There’s no Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley type prospect this year that will get anybody’s interest in the first round. But there are plenty of capable backs who’ll come in and compete for roles, including Jonathon Brooks (Texas), Trey Benson (Florida State), Braelon Allen (Wisconsin), Blake Corum (Michigan), Bucky Irving (Oregon), Audric Estime (Notre Dame) and Dillon Johnson (Washington). Brooks (pictured) averaged 6.1 yards per carry at Texas last year, which is almost identical to what Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson averaged the previous season before being drafted into the league. He tore his ACL in November, potentially knocking him down to the third round.
If past seasons are an indication, some of those backs will string together some productive games. In the last 10 years, 41 rookie running backs have finished with top-30 numbers (using PPR scoring). Only 10 of those 41 were players picked in the first round (in the chart below, I have them flagged with black dots).
Fourteen of those 41 running backs, on the other hand, were players selected after the third round, including three who weren’t picked at all. Some of these backs will land in favorable situations (with teams looking for ballcarriers), with some finishing with viable numbers in their first season.
In the just-completed season, three rookie running backs (in bold) finished with top-25 numbers. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were coveted prospects (both picked in the first half of the first round), while DeVon Achane lasted until the third round.
ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS POSTING TOP-30 NUMBERS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rd | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
2018 | • Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1 | 1307 | 721 | 2028 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 |
2016 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1 | 1631 | 363 | 1994 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 3 | 728 | 826 | 1554 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
2021 | • Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1 | 1200 | 467 | 1667 | 10 | 300.7 | 3 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 3 | 1327 | 455 | 1782 | 11 | 297.2 | 4 |
2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 2 | 1169 | 299 | 1468 | 12 | 254.8 | 6 |
2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | FA | 1070 | 344 | 1414 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
2023 | • Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 1 | 976 | 487 | 1463 | 8 | 252.3 | 8 |
2023 | • Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 1 | 945 | 316 | 1261 | 11 | 244.1 | 10 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 5 | 1313 | 298 | 1611 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
2017 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1 | 435 | 651 | 1086 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
2017 | • Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1 | 1040 | 302 | 1342 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 |
2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | FA | 1037 | 241 | 1278 | 10 | 222.8 | 13 |
2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 2 | 818 | 509 | 1327 | 6 | 220.7 | 15 |
2015 | David Johnson, Ari. | 3 | 581 | 457 | 1038 | 13 | 217.8 | 7 |
2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 2 | 1124 | 215 | 1339 | 9 | 214.9 | 10 |
2015 | • Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1 | 1106 | 188 | 1294 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 |
2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 2 | 903 | 316 | 1219 | 7 | 206.9 | 17 |
2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 3 | 795 | 247 | 1042 | 11 | 206.2 | 14 |
2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 2 | 1050 | 165 | 1215 | 9 | 202.5 | 18 |
2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 2 | 996 | 149 | 1145 | 10 | 194.5 | 17 |
2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 2 | 521 | 357 | 878 | 10 | 193.8 | 16 |
2019 | • Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1 | 1150 | 166 | 1316 | 7 | 193.6 | 21 |
2023 | DeVon Achane, Mia. | 3 | 800 | 197 | 997 | 11 | 192.7 | 25 |
2020 | • Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 1 | 803 | 297 | 1100 | 5 | 176.0 | 22 |
2019 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 3 | 889 | 185 | 1074 | 7 | 174.4 | 24 |
2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 4 | 939 | 165 | 1104 | 5 | 170.4 | 25 |
2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 2 | 805 | 120 | 925 | 9 | 168.5 | 24 |
2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 6 | 963 | 137 | 1100 | 6 | 165.0 | 26 |
2015 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 3 | 379 | 534 | 913 | 2 | 164.3 | 24 |
2018 | Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 4 | 314 | 425 | 739 | 4 | 160.9 | 28 |
2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 5 | 1035 | 139 | 1174 | 4 | 159.4 | 30 |
2021 | Michael Carter, NYJ | 4 | 639 | 325 | 964 | 4 | 156.4 | 29 |
2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 2 | 740 | 279 | 1019 | 3 | 155.9 | 28 |
2017 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 4 | 370 | 353 | 723 | 4 | 154.4 | 28 |
2015 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 4 | 514 | 353 | 867 | 3 | 149.7 | 29 |
2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 4 | 612 | 265 | 877 | 5 | 148.7 | 29 |
2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 4 | 537 | 279 | 816 | 7 | 147.6 | 30 |
2014 | Branden Oliver, S.D. | FA | 582 | 271 | 853 | 4 | 145.3 | 26 |
2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 4 | 721 | 130 | 851 | 7 | 145.1 | 27 |
2014 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 3 | 765 | 148 | 913 | 5 | 137.3 | 30 |
—Ian Allan