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Factoid

Rookie running backs

Lightly regarded draft class should include some hits

Running backs will not be coveted in the upcoming draft. None will be selected in the first round, and I’m not positive that one will even be chosen in the second. But if form holds, there will be multiple first-round running backs who will make an impact in the 2024 season.

The lack of interest in the draft is fueled by the position in general becoming devalued. There are plenty of free agent running backs available, and a growing number of teams have been opting to go cheap at the position, figuring it’s better to use those resources on other positions. Kansas City has won the last two Super Bowls with lightly regarded Isiah Pacheco starting at tailback. Baltimore hosted the AFC Championship game while relying predominantly on a cast of lesser running backs – Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell.

There’s no Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley type prospect this year that will get anybody’s interest in the first round. But there are plenty of capable backs who’ll come in and compete for roles, including Jonathon Brooks (Texas), Trey Benson (Florida State), Braelon Allen (Wisconsin), Blake Corum (Michigan), Bucky Irving (Oregon), Audric Estime (Notre Dame) and Dillon Johnson (Washington). Brooks (pictured) averaged 6.1 yards per carry at Texas last year, which is almost identical to what Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson averaged the previous season before being drafted into the league. He tore his ACL in November, potentially knocking him down to the third round.

If past seasons are an indication, some of those backs will string together some productive games. In the last 10 years, 41 rookie running backs have finished with top-30 numbers (using PPR scoring). Only 10 of those 41 were players picked in the first round (in the chart below, I have them flagged with black dots).

Fourteen of those 41 running backs, on the other hand, were players selected after the third round, including three who weren’t picked at all. Some of these backs will land in favorable situations (with teams looking for ballcarriers), with some finishing with viable numbers in their first season.

In the just-completed season, three rookie running backs (in bold) finished with top-25 numbers. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were coveted prospects (both picked in the first half of the first round), while DeVon Achane lasted until the third round.

ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS POSTING TOP-30 NUMBERS
YearPlayerRdRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2018• Saquon Barkley, NYG11307721202815385.82
2016• Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.11631363199416327.42
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.3728826155414322.43
2021• Najee Harris, Pitt.11200467166710300.73
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.31327455178211297.24
2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.21169299146812254.86
2020James Robinson, Jac.FA1070344141410252.47
2023• Bijan Robinson, Atl.197648714638252.38
2023• Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.1945316126111244.110
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.5131329816117232.110
2017• Christian McCaffrey, Car.143565110867230.69
2017• Leonard Fournette, Jac.11040302134210230.210
2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.FA1037241127810222.813
2019Miles Sanders, Phil.281850913276220.715
2015David Johnson, Ari.3581457103813217.87
2014Jeremy Hill, Cin.2112421513399214.910
2015• Todd Gurley, St.L.11106188129410210.49
2021Javonte Williams, Den.290331612197206.917
2020Antonio Gibson, Was.3795247104211206.214
2022Kenneth Walker, Sea.2105016512159202.518
2018Nick Chubb, Cle.2996149114510194.517
2020D'Andre Swift, Det.252135787810193.816
2019• Josh Jacobs, Oak.1115016613167193.621
2023DeVon Achane, Mia.380019799711192.725
2020• Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.180329711005176.022
2019David Montgomery, Chi.388918510747174.424
2022Dameon Pierce, Hou.493916511045170.425
2020J.K. Dobbins, Balt.28051209259168.524
2021Elijah Mitchell, S.F.696313711006165.026
2015Duke Johnson, Cle.33795349132164.324
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.43144257394160.928
2022Tyler Allgeier, Atl.5103513911744159.430
2021Michael Carter, NYJ46393259644156.429
2015T.J. Yeldon, Jac.274027910193155.928
2017Tarik Cohen, Chi.43703537234154.428
2015Javorius Allen, Balt.45143538673149.729
2016Devontae Booker, Den.46122658775148.729
2015Jeremy Langford, Chi.45372798167147.630
2014Branden Oliver, S.D.FA5822718534145.326
2014Andre Williams, NYG47211308517145.127
2014Tre Mason, St.L.37651489135137.330

—Ian Allan

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