The Chargers are reportedly kicking the tires on J.K. Dobbins. He's coming off a torn Achilles, the second time in three years he's had his season wiped out by a major injury. But he's healthy now (according to his doctor) and the landing spot would certainly get him on the radar.
The Chargers have long been a pass-first offense, but those days can be set aside for the moment. Jim Harbaugh takes over with a run-first scheme from Michigan, and the team wasted no time in getting rid of its best wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (salary cap-driven moves, but whatever). They'll definitely be emphasizing the run in 2024.
Right off the bat, Harbaugh hired Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator. Roman was out of football last year, but in four years running Baltimore's offense from 2019 through 2022, the Ravens ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd and 2nd in rushing. (29th or worse in passing in three of those seasons.) Those stats are influenced some by having the game's most prolific running quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but their running backs have been very effective -- in start contrast to what's been happening with the Chargers.
In Roman's last season in Baltimore, Ravens running backs averaged nearly 5.0 yards per attempt, tops in the league. That was with Dobbins, Gus Edwards -- who the Chargers have already signed -- and Kenyan Drake doing most of the rushing. Chargers running backs averaged about a yard less per attempt (4.0) that season, then were even worse in 2023 (3.5, better than only Tampa Bay), while Baltimore's Roman-less offense with remained one of the league's better groups. It's a new era coming to Los Angeles.
| RUNNING BACK ONLY TEAM RUSHING, 2022-2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2023 | Miami | 398 | 2183 | 5.5 | 27 |
| 2023 | San Francisco | 398 | 1973 | 5.0 | 19 |
| 2022 | Baltimore | 352 | 1731 | 4.9 | 9 |
| 2022 | Buffalo | 291 | 1418 | 4.9 | 7 |
| 2022 | Atlanta | 455 | 2209 | 4.9 | 13 |
| 2022 | San Francisco | 392 | 1902 | 4.9 | 13 |
| 2023 | Detroit | 449 | 2157 | 4.8 | 24 |
| 2022 | Las Vegas | 378 | 1809 | 4.8 | 12 |
| 2022 | Seattle | 351 | 1679 | 4.8 | 11 |
| 2023 | Arizona | 339 | 1615 | 4.8 | 9 |
| 2022 | Philadelphia | 368 | 1745 | 4.7 | 18 |
| 2022 | Jacksonville | 359 | 1701 | 4.7 | 11 |
| 2022 | Green Bay | 410 | 1929 | 4.7 | 9 |
| 2022 | New England | 354 | 1663 | 4.7 | 10 |
| 2023 | Baltimore | 364 | 1696 | 4.7 | 20 |
| 2022 | Cleveland | 438 | 2018 | 4.6 | 15 |
| 2022 | Carolina | 415 | 1893 | 4.6 | 12 |
| 2023 | Pittsburgh | 404 | 1819 | 4.5 | 12 |
| 2022 | Chicago | 368 | 1650 | 4.5 | 9 |
| 2022 | Miami | 335 | 1501 | 4.5 | 10 |
| 2022 | Kansas City | 335 | 1500 | 4.5 | 10 |
| 2023 | Philadelphia | 344 | 1532 | 4.5 | 7 |
| 2023 | Buffalo | 381 | 1688 | 4.4 | 7 |
| 2022 | Dallas | 462 | 2044 | 4.4 | 22 |
| 2022 | Tennessee | 410 | 1813 | 4.4 | 13 |
| 2022 | Detroit | 427 | 1884 | 4.4 | 23 |
| 2022 | NY Giants | 380 | 1673 | 4.4 | 12 |
| 2023 | Indianapolis | 416 | 1807 | 4.3 | 12 |
| 2023 | Tennessee | 383 | 1631 | 4.3 | 14 |
| 2023 | Washington | 298 | 1269 | 4.3 | 8 |
| 2023 | LA Rams | 414 | 1752 | 4.2 | 17 |
| 2023 | Chicago | 360 | 1519 | 4.2 | 9 |
| 2022 | Indianapolis | 382 | 1605 | 4.2 | 7 |
| 2022 | Denver | 367 | 1540 | 4.2 | 8 |
| 2022 | Minnesota | 357 | 1497 | 4.2 | 15 |
| 2022 | NY Jets | 338 | 1410 | 4.2 | 9 |
| 2023 | Seattle | 337 | 1403 | 4.2 | 9 |
| 2022 | Arizona | 316 | 1298 | 4.1 | 12 |
| 2023 | NY Jets | 322 | 1320 | 4.1 | 6 |
| 2022 | LA Rams | 320 | 1310 | 4.1 | 11 |
| 2023 | Atlanta | 450 | 1840 | 4.1 | 8 |
| 2023 | Kansas City | 318 | 1295 | 4.1 | 9 |
| 2023 | Cincinnati | 318 | 1294 | 4.1 | 9 |
| 2023 | Green Bay | 368 | 1497 | 4.1 | 4 |
| 2023 | Denver | 353 | 1431 | 4.1 | 5 |
| 2022 | Pittsburgh | 384 | 1554 | 4.0 | 10 |
| 2023 | Minnesota | 326 | 1319 | 4.0 | 4 |
| 2022 | LA Chargers | 344 | 1376 | 4.0 | 15 |
| 2022 | Cincinnati | 311 | 1238 | 4.0 | 9 |
| 2023 | Cleveland | 430 | 1685 | 3.9 | 14 |
| 2022 | New Orleans | 330 | 1280 | 3.9 | 4 |
| 2022 | Washington | 433 | 1676 | 3.9 | 5 |
| 2023 | Las Vegas | 356 | 1376 | 3.9 | 8 |
| 2023 | Dallas | 370 | 1425 | 3.9 | 9 |
| 2022 | Houston | 332 | 1260 | 3.8 | 5 |
| 2023 | New England | 356 | 1326 | 3.7 | 8 |
| 2023 | Houston | 379 | 1375 | 3.6 | 7 |
| 2023 | Carolina | 381 | 1380 | 3.6 | 6 |
| 2022 | Tampa Bay | 343 | 1230 | 3.6 | 4 |
| 2023 | NY Giants | 330 | 1183 | 3.6 | 7 |
| 2023 | New Orleans | 350 | 1238 | 3.5 | 9 |
| 2023 | Jacksonville | 358 | 1248 | 3.5 | 13 |
| 2023 | LA Chargers | 327 | 1135 | 3.5 | 7 |
| 2023 | Tampa Bay | 360 | 1231 | 3.4 | 6 |
When the Chargers signed Edwards, our suspicion was that more moves would be coming; that the team would not enter the 2024 season with Edwards as a feature back. Signing Dobbins, if that happens, would give the team a more intriguing lead back: Dobbins has averaged 6.0 and 5.7 yards per attempt in his two mostly healthy seasons, while Edwards is about a yard less for his career, and was at just 4.1 as Baltimore's main back last season. And the Chargers could still add to the team via the draft.
There's risk, obviously, in expecting much out of Dobbins. He needs to show he can stay healthy, and that he's still capable while just a year removed from an Achilles injury. But if LA signs him, he'll be the back I'll be interested in taking a stab at in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. If healthy, he's better than Edwards, and would have some potential in this offense.
--Andy Richardson