The Packers have the league’s most frustrating receiving group, I think. It’s a good offense – there will be some production – but it’s hard to latch onto any one guy with confidence. There is no go-to guy, as far as I can see.
Christian Watson should have some huge, difference-making games, but he might be best suited to be a big-play sidekick rather than a featured receiver. A deluxe version of Gabe Davis. He’s best on long runs, where he can build up a head of steam. And he has an extensive history of injuries.
I think Jayden Reed probably will end up with the best numbers. He had an impressive rookie season, not only catching passes but also scoring 2 touchdowns on end-arounds. In his final 10 games last year, he averaged 4.5 catches, 50 receiving yards and 11 rushing yards, with 7 TDs. But he also looks more like a contributor rather than a featured, No. 1 kind of guy.
They’ve still got Romeo Doubs. He averaged 3.5 catches for 40 yards last year, with 8 TDs. But he doesn’t have special size or speed.
Cluttering this situation more, the Packers have a pair of up-and-coming tight ends (Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft), and a pair of less-heralded young receivers who also made noise last year. Bo Melton (who I don’t think will play much) caught 11 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown in the last two games last year, when other guys were out with injuries. And Dontayvion Wicks looks like he needs to play more.
With Wicks (a fifth-round pick a year ago) he made the most of his opportunities as a fill-in last year. When he started four games late in the season, he caught 16 passes for 203 yards and 3 TDs. And he averaged 10 yards per pass play (including incompletions); that was the best on the team.
Wicks ran a modest 4.62 at the combine, but he was a good downfield threat at Virginia, with his 90 catches averaging 18.8 yards. It’s looking like he should have been picked earlier.
Jordan Love early in camp identified Wicks as a player he thinks will be doing a lot more. “I think Dontayvion Wicks is going to have a monster year,” he said.
Playing around with numbers, only a dozen other wide receivers in the last 20 years have averaged at least 10 yards per target as rookies while having at least 50 passes thrown their way. Wicks is in this game. The vast majority of those guys went on to have good careers.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS AVERAGING 10 YDS PER TARGET | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Yds | YPT | TD | Best Yr |
| 2013 | Kenny Stills, N.O. | 50 | 32 | 641 | 12.8 | 5 | 58-847-6 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 84 | 52 | 1,051 | 12.5 | 8 | 88-1496-11 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 79 | 58 | 917 | 11.6 | 7 | 111-1426-7 |
| 2004 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 74 | 48 | 843 | 11.4 | 9 | 82-1292-8 |
| 2021 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 128 | 81 | 1,455 | 11.4 | 13 | 81-1455-13 |
| 2007 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 51 | 37 | 576 | 11.3 | 3 | 57-664-4 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1,400 | 11.2 | 7 | 128-1809-8 |
| 2009 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 74 | 47 | 790 | 10.7 | 6 | 79-1052-11 |
| 2009 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 72 | 39 | 756 | 10.5 | 6 | 60-1257-10 |
| 2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 95 | 54 | 959 | 10.1 | 8 | 136-1871-8 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 130 | 91 | 1,305 | 10.0 | 12 | 96-1450-13 |
| 2023 | Dontayvion Wicks, G.B. | 58 | 39 | 581 | 10.0 | 4 | 39-581-4 |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 105 | 71 | 1,046 | 10.0 | 8 | 102-1393-6 |
Admittedly, I don’t see the chart as particularly meaningful or predictive. Nine of the other 12 wide receivers were first- or second-round picks. (What’s the value in comparing Wicks to Justin Jefferson or Odell Beckham?). Only one of those receivers (Kenny Stills) was a fifth-round pick, and he’s a different style of receiver. Only two other receivers were third-round picks.
But Wicks is one of those guys to keep an eye on in training camp, gauging whether he might be ready to overtake Doubs. Not a guy I expect to be selecting, but he has my attention.
—Ian Allan