And suddenly, it's here: Children, chores and significant others will be cast aside for a few glorious hours this weekend by millions of fantasy players in search of more hardware, cash winnings, and bragging rights. Here's a quick rundown of the state of things on the AFC side and how I'm approaching the key players in drafts this weekend.

Buffalo Bills

Best case
The Stefon Diggs divestment pays off handsomely: Like Patrick Mahomes in 2022, democratizing the targets among a diverse cast of characters unlocks a sixth gear for Josh Allen, sending him back over 4500 yards passing for the first time since 2020 as the Bills barnstorm to a fifth consecutive AFC East title.

Worst case
The quiet collapse of Josh Allen's passing numbers after last year's midseason dismissal of Ken Dorsey was not a fluke. With no high-volume dealer (Diggs) and no legitimate lid lifter to pull DBs downfield (Gabe Davis), the post-Diggs Buffalo offense resembles that of the early 2023 Chiefs more than the 2022 version they had hoped to mimic. The Bills sag to 9-8, are eliminated from a ferociously tough AFC playoff picture before Christmas and Sean McDermott is shown the door.

Key players
Josh Allen should be the first QB off every draft board this weekend, but the question is when. My unofficial demarcation line: If Josh Jacobs and Nico Collins are gone, Josh Allen is officially discounted. James Cook may be the most underappreciated third year running back coming off of a 1500-yard season in NFL history, and frankly I'm part of the problem - I just can't bring myself to advocate for him with Allen calling his own number more than ever and two capable, bigger backs making the 53-man to exacerbate his TD issues. Dalton Kincaid is a rock-solid buy. House favorite Khalil Shakir is too, although I personally view him more as a very economical point of entry into the offense than 'the guy'. I think affable youngster Keon Coleman was brought in for that role; the big question is when (and if) he'll be ready to fill it. Given the implied passing numbers at play here, I'm willing to pay Coleman's current market price (around WR45) on the chance that the Bills have their man.

Miami Dolphins

Best case
Mike McDaniel's Dolphins prove that the first two years were just bad luck, breaking through for over 410 yards of total offense per week that is powered by a barrage of splash plays, both by land and by air. Tua Tagovailoa becomes the first QB to best Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs since Burrow, and just like Burrow ends his franchise's playoff win drought in style by sending the Dolphins to the Big Easy as AFC champs.

Worst case
Yeah, about that contract... despite all the talent and schematic help in the world, Tagovailoa fails to live up to his handsome pay day, as paint begins to chip off of the now 30-year old Tyreek Hill for the first time and Tagovailoa is unable to offset it with his play. The Dolphins are once again dispatched on the road in the wild card round, giving way to a winter of hard questions in South Beach.

Key players
Tyreek Hill is still a AAA-rated investment at the top of fantasy drafts... but we can now hear the clock ticking. Despite a down 2023, Jaylen Waddle's draft price hasn't slipped all that much from where he was going last year. Waddle's a solid bet even at his current WR19 perch, albeit one that feels more like a solid single than a deep fly ball toward the fences. The scariest man to face in fantasy this side of McCaffrey in 2024 may also have the scariest price tag, as De'Von Achane as the RB10 in drafts is difficult to comprehend. My gut says do it anyway. Raheem Mostert finds himself in the truly bizarre position of being the returning starter coming off of a 21-touchdown season for an elite offense... and yet he's going 4-5 rounds later. But Miami was sixth in rushing last year, and I think they push for top 3 status this year. I'm buying both these guys. Jonnu Smith is a name to remember either at the ends of drafts or afterward, as the Dolphins seem to have some rugby-ish Taysom Hill usage in mind for him on top of conventional TE duties. Malik Washington is also a name to file away. Sadly, Odell Beckham is very likely a name to forget at this point.

New England Patriots

Best case
The Patriots got the right guy for the job this time. Promising prospective franchise signal-caller Drake Maye comes on in relief of capable bridgeman Jacoby Brissett after New England's brutal opening draw lets up in week 9, acting as a rising tide for a deep but very young receiver group. Maye and the Patriots string together some upset wins, culminating with a brief cameo in the wild card picture in early December and allowing them to head into the offseason feeling confident the franchise has found its heading.

Worst case
Pressed into action ahead of schedule by a Brissett injury, Drake Maye is not just outgunned, but out of his depth. Worse still, New England's shotgun approach at receiver winds up hitting nothing but air, the Patriots finish dead last in the NFL in total offense and head into 2025 with a top 3 pick and a mandate to get Maye more help immediately.

Key players
The Bills and Dolphins will have three players apiece taken before the first Patriot's name is called in fantasy drafts this weekend, and that Patriot will be Rhamondre Stevenson. Rhamondre's name has lost a lot of luster since his fantastic 2022, but his (shocking) 4-yr/$36 million extension this summer suggests he should get bell cow treatment this year - or the 2024 version of bell cow treatment, anyway. Sitting at around RB20 at press time, if the Patriots overperform their extremely meager expectations then Stevenson becomes a very interesting proposition. After that, our guess isn't much better than yours: Second-year speedster DeMario Douglas should have a 100-target floor. Day 2 rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker had encouraging summers, but don't seem to be heading into the regular season on the right foot. Maybe Belichick holdovers Tyquan Thornton or Kayshon Boutte step up instead? It's a mystery box, so be prepared to put in waiver claims on whoever steps up in the season opener.

New York Jets

Best case
The big bet on a 40-year old quarterback pays off a year late. Able to lean on a league-best defense early and often, Aaron Rodgers manages to keep the offense on schedule far more often than not and superstars Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson both go supernova, powering Gang Green to 12 wins and their first AFC East title in 22 years.

Worst case
Aaron Rodgers, to whom all hopes and several people's jobs were tied, is an absolute shell of his Hall of Fame self, right from the start. After an embarrassing shellacking in the season opener at the hands of San Francisco, the Jets are stunned by a feisty Tennessee team in week 2 and never manage to claw their way back to .500 after that. OC Nathaniel Hackett is the first head to roll, but Robert Saleh and even GM Joe Douglas follow him out the door in the end. Now closer to rebuilding than contending, the Jets eat both a whopping $49 million dead cap hit in 2025 and $63 million in void year cap penalties thru 2028 to walk away from a now 41-year old Rodgers, continuing their generation-long journey through the desert in search of a true successor to Namath.

Key players
We love Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson as much as the next guy, and both are deserving and exciting first round selections. But the presence of Aaron Rodgers, whom is off our draft boards entirely, means drafting them is akin to building your straw hut at the foot of Mt. Vesuvius. So, if you feel the ground begin to rumble... start packing.

A much less anxiety-inducing ticket to see if Rodgers still has it is Mike Williams. He's a hard guy to love at this point (as evidenced by his current WR60 standing), and he very well may spend September rounding back into form after last year's ACL tear, but if Rodgers has another special season of high-end efficiency distributing to the intermediate perimeter of the field, it wouldn't be shocking for Williams to be a major benefactor. And my Tyler Conklin 'truthering' truly knows no bounds.

Baltimore Ravens

Best case
Like many great QBs in a conference dominated by Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson enters 2024 needing to add some January wins to his resume. Behind healthy seasons from him, Mark Andrews and Derrick Henry, he gets them: The Ravens make mincemeat of an AFC North that was much tougher on paper than the football field, cruising to a second consecutive 13-win AFC North title and avenging last year's disappointment in the AFC championship game by punching their ticket to the Super Bowl in front of the Baltimore faithful.

Worst case
The injury bug that had plagued Lamar Jackson in recent years prior to his 2023 MVP revival returns, taking bites out of the seasons of both Jackson and multiple other key Ravens - including an offensive line that had already lost multiple starters to free agency. The Ravens fall to the Texans' buzzsaw in the wild card round in Houston.

Key players
Heading north to Baltimore for a Lombardi and apparently the cuisine, Derrick Henry is a second-round pick with obvious first round ceiling; 12 touchdowns are assured, 18+ are squarely in play. Very hard to go wrong with him here. Locked in as the QB4 pretty much across the board, Lamar Jackson continues to feel like a player you're drafting with his hair already pressed against his ceiling. Mark Andrews seems to be running as the 'safe' option relative to Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride, but he needs both himself and Lamar to stay healthy - a trick that has been elusive for some time now. One of the hills I died on many moons ago and continue resting peacefully upon: regret awaits those venturing near Zay Flowers at his current WR28 ADP. A far more intriguing (and clearance-priced) option is Rashod Bateman: bigger, faster, and being taken as the WR79(!) as a starting receiver for a team that finished sixth in total offense last year and is signaling a desire to throw more this year.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best case
After two years of seemingly constant injuries to their superstars keeping the Cincinnati Triplets from all being on the field at the same time, the Bengals have an availability breakthrough. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins all play 17 games together for the first time, and new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher adds some wrinkles to keep opposing defenses off-balance and the scoreboard operator plenty busy. Good health combined with the easiest December schedule the Bengals have drawn in years is all it takes to make the team's 2023 season of horrors a distant memory. It takes all 13 wins to fend off the Ravens for the AFC North, but their week 2 win in Kansas City gives Burrow and the Bengals the all-important home field advantage throughout, setting the stage for a 2021 AFC Championship game rematch in Cincinnati. After a touchdown drive from Mahomes ties the game with less than thirty seconds left in regulation, Burrow needs only three plays to move the team into position for a 52-yard field goal attempt. McPherson hits it dead center: Bengals back to the Super Bowl, 30-27.

Worst case
Determined to match he and Burrow's LSU teammate's June contract extension dollar for dollar, Ja'Marr Chase chooses not to back down from the famously tight-fisted Bengals. The Bengals' front office does the same, resulting in several missed games for their superstar receiver before cooler heads finally prevail. But if the Bengals didn't have bad luck, they'd have no luck at all: As soon as Chase returns for Cincinnati's Week 5 home tilt with the rival Ravens, Tee Higgins is lost for six weeks to a high ankle sprain. The Bengals still manage to win 10 games and make the playoffs as the seven seed, but this road playoff game in Buffalo doesn't go nearly as well as the last one. Tee Higgins signs elsewhere on the first day of free agency in the spring, and the Bengals head into 2025 somehow needing to add a receiver across from Chase. HC Zac Taylor contacts a few realtors, just in case.

Key players
Few teams boast as much fantasy relevance as this current iteration of the Bengals. Despite months of contract uncertainty, Ja'Marr Chase continues running as a comfortable top 8 selection in PPR fantasy drafts. Of course, he was comfortably in the top 5 a month ago... people are most definitely getting nervous here. As the people who managed to nab Brandon Aiyuk in the fourth round of drafts last week can tell you, bet on this guy playing and take him at any kind of discount you can get in the mid- to late first. Down quite a bit from where we're accustomed to seeing him drafted is Tee Higgins, running all the way down as the WR27. That's silly value; if you're able to nab him in the fifth round, enjoy. Joe Burrow is usually quick to follow, but I emphasize 'usually'; technically the QB7 on average, I've seen Jordan Love and even Kyler Murray's names called before his recently, so be prepared for a possible discount Burrow-Higgins stack if you're into that. Replacing longtime stalwart Joe Mixon is a two-man crew of Zack Moss (RB28) and Chase Brown (RB37); both are quality upside plays, with Moss presumably having more appeal in TD-oriented leagues and Brown theoretically being the call in more PPR-heavy scoring. But that could all be wrong, we really don't know. As we've talked about in recent podcasts, Andrei Iosivas (WR88) and rookie Jermaine Burton (WR73) have fought a war of attrition for the right to succeed Tyler Boyd as Cincy's #3 receiver. Iosivas has won, but not by enough to keep Burton off the field entirely, rendering both unplayable for now. Mike Gesicki (TE29) is in town as the Bengals' next attempt to produce a fantasy-relevant tight end. It still probably won't happen, but Gesicki may represent their most earnest attempt yet, as he does have two 700-yard seasons on his resume and reports have had him and Burrow 'developing chemistry' over the summer. So there's that.

Cleveland Browns

Best case
Although still not playing up to his 2020 version, Deshaun Watson finally stabilizes in year three in Cleveland, piloting an offense suddenly flush with receiving talent back to the playoffs. The Browns even manage to log a road playoff victory (thanks to some heroics from Nick Chubb, naturally) before being sent packing by a rested and laser-focused Chiefs team in the divisional round.

Worst case
After thoroughly underwhelming in his first two seasons in town, the wheels simply fall off for Watson this time around, as the baffling misfires are too frequent for even the strong supporting cast to overcome. The Browns do the unthinkable, benching a healthy Watson after a 27-7 home whomping at the hands of Jim Harbaugh's Chargers in week 9 drops them to 2-6. Jameis Winston isn't much better in relief, Nick Chubb is a grim shadow of his former self, and the Browns drop six straight to close out 2024. Cleveland heads into the offseason with a salary cap disaster that would make even the Broncos blush: counting an unfathomable $172 million in dead cap if released in 2025 and completely untradeable, the Browns are forced to simply bench Watson and finish paying out his contract to avoid tearing their entire roster down to the studs.

Key players
While I'm clearly deeply, deeply concerned about the range of possible outcomes for the Browns in 2024, Amari Cooper is uniquely hardy against mediocre-to-terrible quarterback play. I would sleep better at night with him in my lineup than Malik Nabers. ADP goes out the window with Nick Chubb, as where he goes in your league's drafts this weekend will be controlled by who #Believes the hardest. All I can say is he's gone earlier than I would dream of taking him in every draft I've been in for weeks now. Better to take advantage of the discount that Chubb's attempted comeback creates on Jerome Ford, who I have loosely tabbed as potentially being this year's Rachaad White. I'm in the minority on my belief that the David Njoku-mania that broke out in Cleveland last fall keeps right on going this year, and I'm fine with that. He's just too darn good, wouldn't make a lick of sense for the Browns to put him back in the attic. Jerry Jeudy may have the money, but I do not believe he has the talent to overcome both target share and QB accuracy issues to make even his modest WR56 price much worth bothering with. Cedric Tillman is an interesting deep league/dynasty league buy low guy. Sitting all the way back at QB22, Deshaun Watson's supporting cast and ability to add value as a runner combined with his past greatness is somehow still enough to draw in fantasy owners. Don't be that guy. Deshaun Watson does not belong anywhere near fantasy rosters in typical leagues.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best case
The 'What if we just become the 2019 Titans?' gambit the Steelers embarked upon with the Arthur Smith hire works to perfection. Led by massive efforts from Jaylen Warren and contract-year Najee Harris (and an offensive line that finally ascends to elite status after years of diligent draft capital investment), Russell Wilson arrives as a castoff only to lead Pittsburgh to an 11-win season and a playoff berth as the #5 seed.

Worst case
The 'What if we just become the 2019 Titans?' thing does not work. At all. Russell Wilson quickly proves that Sean Payton was propping up not just his counting stats but his entire game, and not even the play action-happy Arthur Smith playsheet can conceal Russ's flaws enough to make the offense work. With zero real investment in Wilson, after a week 4 drubbing in Indianapolis the Steelers turn to Justin Fields. Fields is unfortunately as lost as ever when asked to operate from the pocket, and the Steelers hot foot between Wilson and Fields a couple more times en route to an 8-9 finish. Mike Tomlin's first losing season in Pittsburgh is his last, as he opts to step aside at season's end.

Key players
George Pickens and Najee Harris are the two most consequential Steelers in fantasy football this year, with Jaylen Warren not far behind. A bet on either Harris (RB24) or Warren (RB34) feels like a bet that Arthur Smith can recreate the magic of his Tennessee offenses. The Steelers are generally a bad team to bet against, but Smith's oafish turn as the head football coach in Atlanta has me suspecting those Tennessee offenses were a lot more about Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown than anything else. Maybe a pivot to Justin Fields puts a little wind in their sails though, can't rule that out. As for Pickens, I firmly believe he makes the jump from semi-star to superstar if Russell Wilson can party like it's 2019 again. He's a bit of a rich bet as the WR26, but a potentially league-winning one. Poised to be a real fly in the backfield ointment appears to be Cordarrelle Patterson, who followed Smith from Atlanta presumably to give the Steelers an edge with the new kick return rules - but who still looks pretty darn good doing the 'wide-back' thing. I preemptively rounded him up on a couple dynasty teams lacking for RB depth. Apologies to the Harris and Warren drafters out there.

Houston Texans

Best case
A Texans offense that was already primed to explode in 2024 is turned into a true atom bomb with the arrival of the mercurial-but-(still)-elite Stefon Diggs: The Texans become the first team since the 2008 Arizona Cardinals to feature three 1,000-yard receivers, and C.J. Stroud logs the first of what could be a few seasons with 5,000 yards passing as the Texans run away with the AFC South. Forced to march through a playoff gauntlet that includes Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes, Stroud and the Texans prove that yet another superpower has emerged in the conference as Houston earns the first Super Bowl berth in the franchise's young history.

Worst case
The Texans are still a high-powered affair in 2024, but the addition of Stefon Diggs proves to be subtraction by addition. Diggs demands more targets than he really deserves at this stage of his career, pulling down Stroud's per play efficiency and resulting in some heated sideline scenes between Diggs and OC Bobby Slowik that would make even the most casual lip reader avert their eyes. The Texans concede the AFC South to the team that almost won it last year, Indianapolis, before a shocking loss in a win-and-in scenario on the road against a plucky Titans team in the season finale.

Stefon Diggs is driven to Houston city limits at dawn and ordered never to return.

Key players
It's fairly odd for an offense this good not to have any players in the consensus top 10, let alone to not have any in the top 20. That immediately implies a lot of upside, and best positioned to realize that upside is Nico Collins. Coming off of a season that saw him explode for 1300 yards in just 15 games, Collins earned himself a nice little 'we like you, now make us love you' contract extension for his efforts. Diggs' arrival is certainly less than ideal, but Collins is the Brandon Aiyuk of this offense, and should have every bit as much volume as Aiyuk if not more. Stefon Diggs... sigh. Whatever we may think of Stefon Diggs at this point, that opinion is secondary to that of Houston's; they didn't trade for him by accident, and they didn't trade for him just to annoy him with a lack of targets. The days of 160 targets are over, but 135 high value targets as the WR21? Plenty worse ways to spend your money. Joe Mixon has been covered: get him.

C.J. Stroud is running as the QB5; I've got him as somewhere between the QB2 and QB4, so that implies value too. There's an exceedingly real chance he leads the league in passing, so in leagues with .05 points per passing yard he should be a guy you try to get. As for presumed odd man out Tank Dell, a lot of smart people in the industry remain too sold on his 2023 tape and his connection with Stroud to fade him. For me, I just can't see my way clear to drafting any team's #3 receiver over guys like Tee Higgins and Terry McLaurin, but I absolutely get the argument. With three receivers eating before him now, plus Mixon's presumed passing game involvement, it's even harder to see how Dalton Schultz is able to squeeze even 80 targets for himself in this brutal pecking order. He's fine, but personally if I'm punting tight end I don't want to pay for the privilege (TE14, 125 overall). Gimme Conklin (or Hockenson, if I'm in a riverboat gambler state of mind) instead, later.

Indianapolis Colts

Best case
Last year's 2.5-game teaser trailer was no mirage. Armed with perhaps the closest thing to his old Philly quarterback, Shane Steichen and the Colts turn Indy into 'Philadel-polis' behind a top-notch two-headed rushing attack and a whole lot of footballs being funneled to Michael Pittman. Catching the Texans by surprise, the Colts slingshot past the presumptive favorites by winning their last five games behind a home stretch performance from Richardson that sees him outperform Josh Allen as the fantasy QB1 over the last four weeks en route to a top 5 finish overall. The Colts ride that momentum to a playoff win at home before coming up just short against a more experienced Bills team on the road in the divisional.

Worst case
After missing his last 13 games and parts of two others with various injuries as a rookie, Richardson again struggles to stay on the field and is frequently playing at less than 100% when he's able to play at all. What had been encouraging early returns on him as a passer in 2023 prove to have been short-lived: Richardson's passing numbers tank to a touch under 200 yards passing per game, killing not only his own return on investment but also that of Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. A season that started with quiet optimism ends with a shocking last place finish.

Key players
For a guy who has had two consecutive injury and nonsense-filled seasons and now finds himself competing with a Jalen Hurts-ian quarterback near the goal line, the fantasy community has been thoroughly forgiving of Jonathan Taylor (RB4). But with all three downs seemingly back to himself, the upside in a Steichen run game for a player this talented is obviously a top 3 finish. Michael Pittman (WR21) is a consensus high-end WR2 that nobody seems very excited to be drafting this year. That could easily prove to have been wrong-headed; Pittman had a larger target share than Amon-Ra St. Brown last year. Anthony Richardson is one of two or three quarterbacks I'm willing to take in the first eight rounds of drafts this year. Yes, he could flop, he could get hurt, he could accidentally lock himself in a broom closet and miss two games waiting to be rescued, etc. etc. He could also provide the Hurts-Allen Effect for whatever number of games he's able to play. I'll take 9-12 games of that type of production at this price. Josh Downs is a fine player, but one whose WR67 ADP may prove prophetic. Give me the bigger, faster Adonai Mitchell a few picks earlier, I think he will generally be an easier guy for Richardson to find with those 'high value targets', as the kids like to say.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best case
The 2023 disaster that saw the Jaguars collapse from a division-leading 8-3 mark to a 9-8 finish proves to have been little more than a bump in the road. Reloaded with better vertical threats at receiver, Trevor Lawrence eclipses 4200 yards passing and 26 passing touchdowns for the first time, leading the Jaguars to a surprise 11-win season and a road playoff win. Travis Etienne's 1600 total yards also prove quite helpful.

Worst case
The disintegration of the Jacksonville offensive line that torpedoed their plans in 2023 repeats in full; what was to be a more vertically oriented passing attack in 2024 is crippled by an inability to keep Trevor Lawrence upright long enough for it to work. Forced to improvise, Evan Engram and Christian Kirk hoover up lots of short receptions, but the rest of the offense stagnates badly. Trevor Lawrence comes in at an anemic 3800 yards passing, the Jags win seven games, and Doug Pederson (and possibly GM Trent Baalke) are looking for their next NFL gigs come January.

Key players
Travis Etienne is a unanimous second round pick, and one for whom a lot of people are fairly excited. He's a great player, but I just can't shake the feeling you're buying Kenneth Walker at a heck of a markup. Clustered tightly together are the Jaguars' top three pass-catchers, and they're all pretty appealing: Christian Kirk (WR35) is a great way to get a WR2 for a WR3 price; Evan Engram (TE8) is coming off one of the truly great PPR campaigns by a tight end in fantasy history, and there are signs that a more prominent role near the stripe could be in the cards; and Brian Thomas Jr. (WR49) is the kind of galactic talent that could take over an offense in the exact style people are banking on with Malik Nabers, several rounds earlier. They're all great gets. So is Trevor Lawrence for that matter, who can be had as the QB16... despite last year's worst-case scenario still yielding a QB13 finish. There's a lot of potential value on the bone in this offense.

Tennessee Titans

Best case
They wrote Will Levis off, but Will Levis ain't write back. Out of nowhere, a head coach hire in former Bengals' OC Brian Callahan that didn't move the needle an inch back in January is a hit. Callahan and OC Nick Holz unlock Levis' potential in a big way, as the Titans come out of the gates storming with a shocking road win in what was to be Caleb Williams' Chicago coronation, following that up with an even more shocking win in their home opener against the Jets the following week. The rest of the league ultimately catches up with them, but not before the Titans scratch out nine wins and prove they have the two most important pieces in place: The quarterback, and the scheme.

Worst case
Will Levis writes back, and Calvin Ridley writes the postscript. Woefully outgunned in a new-look AFC South, it is immediately clear that Brian Callahan and his former high school football teammate (Holz) and their high school coach (OL coach Bill Callahan, former Raiders' head coach and Brian's dad) aren't fit to run a Nashville hot chicken food truck, let alone oversee a complete shift in culture post-Vrabel. Embarrassing turnovers and blowouts abound, culminating in the mercy-benching of Levis in December for Mason Rudolph to play out the string. The Titans wind up with the #1 overall pick in the spring, taking Georgia quarterback Carson Beck as the brief, cursed Will Levis era quickly fades to black.

Key players
So yeah, huge range of potential outcomes in play for the Titans and their players. But people are generally assuming it's gonna be closer to the latter scenario than the former, which is creating a lot of value potential... Calvin Ridley is often the first Titan drafted right now, and understandably so. I'm not a big fan, but GM Ran Carthon paying him $92 million bucks this spring suggests the Titans are. Running as the WR35 with a path to 130+ targets, it's a case that pretty much makes itself. Of course, the same can be said for the venerable DeAndre Hopkins as the WR43 on average. I prefer Hopkins. Tennessee's other big addition was former University of Memphis star Tony Pollard, in town to form a two-man rushing attack with second-year man Tyjae Spears. I'm partial to Pollard as the RB26 with the presumed lion's share of the work, but Spears (RB35) genuinely impressed as a pass-catcher as a rookie; if the Titans overachieve, these guys both should too. Running as the QB25, Will Levis is hard to roster out of the draft in all but the deepest leagues, but he possesses a howitzer for a throwing arm and can run more than his rookie season implied. He has the tools to be fantasy-relevant; does Brian Callahan have the offense to scheme that into existence?

Denver Broncos

Best case
Seven years after famously being sniped by Andy Reid for a certain Texas Tech quarterback, Sean Payton avenges himself. Despite an iffy set of receiving options, Bo Nix hits the ground running as precisely the man for the job of executing the Sean Payton offense to near perfection as a rookie. Nix's 3,900 yards passing and especially his 33 total touchdowns earn him serious Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration, the Broncos make a surprise one-game cameo in the playoffs, and Goodwill stores in the Denver metro area are forced to begin refusing to accept Russell Wilson jerseys at donation centers.

Worst case
Sean Payton got the right guy at quarterback, but the other 52 are a different story. The Bronco passing game becomes a true pop gun attack, setting a new record for third down completions short of the sticks and forcing over 125 receptions into the hands of their running backs once again - none of whom are Alvin Kamara. Denver dink and dunks to six wins, trades Courtland Sutton shortly thereafter and goes into 2025 hellbent on getting Bo Nix some receiver help. Sarcastic 'Jerry Jeudy to Denver?' tweets briefly become a thing.

Key players
Another offense bereft of any consensus top 50 fantasy picks, the first man through the door in fantasy drafts for Denver will very likely be Javonte Williams (RB27), who has come full circle from a rumored cut candidate in June to a somewhat popular sleeper pick after the release of Samaje Perine. But positioned to benefit even more from Perine's exodus may be Youngstown State legend Jaleel McLaughlin (RB49), who flashed real game-changing quickness as a rookie and could be shoehorned into passing down work in year 2. He's a priority bench target for me. Courtland Sutton reprises his role as the team's de facto WR1, but I'm not counting on anything like last year's 10 receiving touchdowns. DK Metcalf's receiving touchdown totals have never been the same since losing Russell Wilson, I doubt Sutton's will either. Lastly, Bo Nix is going about as late as Will Levis (QB23) and offers the same sneaky upside and value add with his legs. I grabbed him as my Anthony Richardson backstop in a serious league, and I am only a smidge concerned by the prospect of actually starting him.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best case
We all know the best case on this one. Finally provided with proper reinforcements for the first time since the Chiefs were forced to trade away living fantasy legend Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs set about silencing any and all questions about whether he is still the baddest man in the business. Mahomes joins the ultra-select 'three-time 5,000-yard passer' club, tacking on 45 passing touchdowns and finishing as the fantasy QB1 for the third time overall and second since 2022. The Chiefs roll to a division title, their ninth straight, and fend off another commendable effort from the rest of the AFC field for another conference championship and a chance at a three-peat in N'awlins.

Worst case
Kansas City's bad luck at receiver continues where Kadarius Toney left off: Marquise "Hollywood" Brown's summer sternum injury knocks him out for multiple games in September, and an aggravation of his semi-chronic left foot winds up limiting the one-year rental to just six games as a Chief. Xavier Worthy's inability to get off the line against press coverage ultimately forces him into a situational role, leaving Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice to carry most of the receiving water.

But by far the biggest problem is the AC Joint Sprain Heard Round the World, as Mahomes' misses over a month after a very questionable late hit from the Raiders' Maxx Crosby in week 8. The Chiefs still manage to scrape together 10 wins, but Jim Harbaugh's Chargers capture the division, their first since 2009. Mahomes is back in time for the playoffs, but his fastball is missing its zip. The Mahomes era Chiefs are one and done for the first time, falling 27-16 in Baltimore.

Key players
The Isiah Pacheco (RB11) hype train has joined the Great Wall as the only manmade object visible from space... and I gotta be honest, I do not have a ticket to ride. Samaje Perine's arrival can only mean bad things for Pacheco's passing game involvement, and if I'm taking a running back who can't catch 30 balls in the second round it's going to be Derrick Henry every single time. Patrick Mahomes is as strong a bet as any to lead the league in passing once again after cratering by over 1,000 yards in 2023, but when he's going bang-bang with Jalen Hurts in draft's I kinda think he has to do it to pay that back. Not knocking the pick, but not pounding the table for it either. Travis Kelce's ADP has rebounded quite a bit over the course of the summer, and he's actually going a couple picks ahead of Detroit sensation Sam LaPorta as of this writing. Same story as Mahomes, there's not a lot of value in the pick but there's a plenty sturdy floor. Rashee Rice is where things get really interesting. After seeing his ADP languish outside the top 70 for the entire summer, recent news of any near-term suspension being unofficially ruled out has sent his price into full-blown recovery. I've seen him go as early as the late fourth round in the last few days. Neither Xavier Worthy (WR37) nor Hollywood Brown (WR45) really do it for me at that not-quite-cheap price point, but certainly they're priced agreeably enough for those who just want a piece of this offense. I will say, forced to choose between the two my answer would unquestionably be Worthy; a month ago it would unquestionably have been Brown.

Las Vegas Raiders

Best case
In a division with three of the most successful head coaches of the 21st century, it is HC Antonio Pierce and his more lax, 'player-coach' approach that most exceeds expectations in the West. Led by a mauling ground game spearheaded by Zamir White and Gardner Minshew morphing into a true successor to Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Raiders impose their wills on teams through brute force time and again, squeezing out a hard-fought nine wins and only narrowly missing out on a wild card bid. The Antonio Pierce approach is proven to be viable; now they just need to decide what to do at quarterback.

Worst case
Yeah, about those other coaches... Pierce's modest success as the interim head coach last year is unfortunately that short-lived. The contrast in team preparedness between the Raiders and Jim Harbaugh's Chargers is almost painfully sharp in the season opener, as the Chargers roundly thump Las Vegas in all phases of the game. The other Harbaugh brother gives them more of the same in Week 2, and it's off to the races on another season of frustration and futility in the desert. Pierce survives the 4-win debacle, but by the narrowest of margins.

Key players
Davante Adams is the only Raider going anywhere close to the top 50, and even he is sitting back in the middle part of the second round as the WR12, a far cry from where we're used to seeing him. I said as much a month or so ago, but Adams feels like a rock-solid floor and ceiling play at that point in the draft; we are still presuming 160 targets here, maybe more. After that we don't see another guy wearing the silver and black drafted for several rounds, and it's usually Zamir White (RB22) that breaks the streak. Zamir has his advocates, and in standard scoring he could certainly be a pleasant surprise, but in full PPR scoring I could take him or leave him. Brock Bowers arrives to give the Raiders the yards after catch threat they were sorely lacking, and as the TE11, I gotta admit: I'm thoroughly intrigued. Josh McDaniels era holdover Jakobi Meyers is still in town, and as the WR54, I suppose there are worse ways to spend your draft capital. Considering Bills WR and honorary FI staffer Khalil Shakir can be had for basically the same price, however...

Los Angeles Chargers

Best case
It ain't sexy, but 'Har-ball' still works like gangbusters. With the arrival of HC Jim Harbaugh and his no nonsense, relentless commitment to the fundamentals (and the run game), the Chargers trade in Justin Herbert's pass-happy past for an offense built on winning in the trenches, time of possession and good old-fashioned slobberknockin'. Herbert's passing numbers wither, but so do the embarrassing late game collapses with which the franchise had unfortunately become synonymous. A shocking week 14 road win in Kansas City puts the Chargers in the driver's seat to win the division and they go undefeated from there, finishing 12-5 and reanimating a Mahomes-Herbert rivalry that had been tragically one-sided in recent years. The Chargers climb as far as the AFC championship game before a positively furious Patrick Mahomes comes to town and burnishes his resume with the revenge game win, but the Chargers prove that they are no longer punchlines and the AFC West is no longer Chiefs property.

Worst case
Harbaugh's 'my way or the highway' philosophy proves even more outdated than his khakis. After a hot start, the Chargers get the defending champs at home and get boat raced heading into their week 5 bye. The team that emerges is clearly already losing patience with their new head coach, coming out flat in a 30-12 loss in Denver in week 6 and never getting it back on track after that. Reducing Justin Herbert to an exorbitantly paid game manager is fine when you're winning, but begins to look deeply questionable as the losses pile up in the tougher middle portion of LA's schedule. A 3-0 start culminates in an 8-9 finish, and Harbaugh and new GM Joe Hortiz head into 2025 with a lot of questions to answer. Quickly.

Key players
If you want Chargers on your fantasy team this year then boy, do I have good news for you! These Chargers are perhaps the best NFL team in history not to have hardly any players being taken in the top 100 in fantasy drafts. The one Bolt that will usually crack the top 100 is rookie super slot Ladd McConkey, hovering around WR42 and 97 overall. I question both the pass volume and McConkey's ability to corner it as a rookie that's already battled some minor injuries this summer, but he's a perfectly fine bet given the boundless opportunity here. Personally, I prefer the veteran Josh Palmer and his WR52 entry fee. He's nothing special as a player, but he may be the next great story of ego-massaging one's way into fantasy relevance.

Of course, the real gold in the hills here is figuring out this Charger backfield. Unfortunately, we don't have a real clear idea of who to back here, and judging by the ADP's of Gus Edwards (RB36), J.K. Dobbins (RB41) and rookie Kimani Vidal (RB59), neither do most fantasy players. My gut says you want Edwards and Vidal... so it's probably Dobbins. As for Justin Herbert it has been quite the steep fall from fantasy grace, as the former annual top 10 QB pick has tumbled all the way to a QB17 standing that almost feels generous. Herbert's a fine QB2 if you choose to carry one, but with these receivers and Greg Roman around I think it's a pretty uninspired choice. I'd rather live a little with Levis.

—Luke Wilson