With the Cowboys and Giants once again set to tussle in East Rutherford shortly, here's an update on the state of things for the big names in fantasy football from all of the NFC East squads heading into the week 4 slate.
Dallas Cowboys
Total Offense: 343.3/game (t-9th)
Passing Yards: 269.7/game (1st)
Rushing Yards: 73.7/game (30th)
Offensive TDs: 6 (t-18th)
Prediction: Both passing and rushing numbers regress toward the median and the touchdowns increase
After spending the bulk of the season opener leading by 2+ scores, the Cowboys spent 96 and a half minutes trailing by 7+ points in their 120 minutes of September football at JerryWorld. This collapse in run-friendly game script has begun to expose the flaws in the Dallas rushing attack post-Kellen Moore: After finishing ninth in the NFL in rushing yardage with a 4.32 yards per carry mark that was good for 18th (and probably would have been better but for Ezekiel Elliott and his sapped legs) in 2022, Dallas slid to 14th in the league in team rushing on a 4.10ypc mark in 2023 despite the subtraction of Elliott and the continuation of big honkin’ leads. With the return of Zeke, and despite teams often giving the Cowboys the run to keep the clock running the last two weeks, the run game has finally collapsed: Dallas running backs rank 31st in the NFL in explosive run rate, 28th in stuff rate (runs that go for less than 3 yards and don’t result in either a touchdown or a touchdown), 30th in missed tackles forced, 31st in yards after contact… you get the idea, they stink. Somewhat amusingly, Cowboys running backs are also 13th in the NFL in yards before contact – can’t really blame the offensive line for the run game struggles.
There is cause for some optimism though. While Cowboys running backs have been going nowhere fast so far, they have also crossed swords with the league’s 13th, 8th, and now top-ranked run defenses to open 2024, so it is possible that this could at least in part be a function of their quality of opposition. And between the aforementioned yards before contact numbers and the fact that the Cowboys have had no trouble keeping Dak Prescott’s numbers fat and happy (29.3% pressure rate is 28th-lowest among qualifying QBs, Pressure Rate Over Expected 25th) despite some early season struggles for Prescott himself (19.7% off target throw rate is currently eighth-highest in the league, -5.1% completion percentage over expected is 31st in the league), we have the makings of an argument that this is a unit that is still knocking off the rust and has had some bad luck in terms of who they've played, and when. It’s hard to recommend Rico Dowdle or Elliott especially strongly here against New York, but it’s the last remotely appealing match-up that either will see until Thanksgiving.
But all that could start to go out the window in a hurry if Dallas loses to the Giants tonight. There was already a palpable air of doom and gloom around the Cowboys heading into 2024, and Jerry’s pea-brained, ‘sing for your supper’ routine with his two superstars over contract extensions everyone and their brother knew were coming didn’t help the mood any. A brutal, relentless shellacking at home in the playoffs that was eight months ago feels a lot more recent on the heels of two mostly-embarrassing home showings to open the season, and the Cowboys get dates with the Steelers and Lions next; a loss tonight would put a 1-5 start squarely in play. Dallas - and more specifically, lame duck HC Mike McCarthy - desperately needs to not only win this game, but to do so convincingly. Not letting another team run all over them (the Cowboys defense is currently allowing 185.7 rushing yards per game – yikes) would be a good start.
Another good start should be CeeDee Lamb, who put 11 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown on the Giants when last they met. And Lamb (and his fantasy owners) could certainly go for a cake matchup right about now, as Lamb’s WR19 standing through three games is propped up by a 65-yard touchdown in the Saints game that was purely a product of a mind-numbingly bad pursuit angle by Tyrann Mathieu reminiscent of the Minneapolis Miracle. Lamb was the WR20 last year going into Week 5; we know how that ended. The Giants have surrendered WR4 and WR15 days to opposing team’s #1 receivers thus far. Expect good things tonight. Brandin Cooks is a fine enough flex option, but Jalen Tolbert’s involvement the last two games is notable: Tolbert has now run 104 routes to Cooks’ 105 on the young season, and has been Prescott's first read on 14.1% of them to Cooks’ 15.3% (for context, Lamb at 109 and 24.7% respectively). Cooks has had a slight edge in snaps and remains the nominal #2 receiver ahead of Tolbert, but the Cowboys being down huge basically nonstop the last two weeks has put Tolbert on the field just as much as Cooks and Lamb. If you think the Cowboys take care of business tonight then Cooks becomes a slightly better play, since that should mean less Tolbert on the field (67% snap rate for Tolbert week 1, 80% last two games). Jake Ferguson piled up a meaty 11 targets on 66% of the snaps in his return to action last week, so continue firing him up.
New York Giants
Total Offense: 294.7/game (22nd)
Passing Yards: 189.7 (21st)
Rushing Yards: 105.0/game (19th)
Offensive TDs: 6 (t-18th)
Prediction: What you see is what you’ll get
A 28-6 home blowout at the hands of the Vikings has been softened considerably over the last two weeks: the Vikings are for real, and the Giants very likely would have won both of their other two games but for Graham Gano’s cranky hamstring. Daniel Jones has followed up a clunker in that season opener with QB6 and QB11 performances, games that have dovetailed with a two-week stretch from rookie phenom Malik Nabers that has already erased any doubt regarding whether or not he could stage a hostile takeover as a 21-year old: 30 targets (1st in NFL last two weeks), 47.9% target share (1st by a lot), and 47.9 fantasy points in half PPR scoring (1st). It’s tenuous, but it would appear Jones is good enough to enable Nabers’ fantasy ceiling as a rookie – just barely.
The Cowboys show as a tough matchup for the Giants pass catchers as a whole, but that’s owing far more to how much fun teams have had running the ball against them. Trevon Diggs and Co. are of no material concern for Nabers; double-digit targets are on tap here. As for Jones, the stars (pun partially intended) are at least partially aligned for him to get the ‘can’t beat Dallas’ monkey off of his back (1-7 record vs. DAL) and dealing a potential death blow to their division rival’s 2024 campaign in the process. This feels like a chance for “Danny Dimes” to get his Giants tenure back on track – quite possibly his last one. He’s an acceptable streaming option here, provided your four-leaf clovers and rabbit’s feet are in good working order.
Coming off of consecutive top-18 performances against the league’s swingingest swinging gate run defense and enjoying something close to three-down duties, Devin Singletary (t-7th in NFL in missed tackles forced, 6th in yards after contact, t-7th in explosive run rate) is a guy you probably drafted like a flex that should eat like a meal here against the 'Boys. But Singletary is where I hop off of the still-rickety Giants bandwagon for now; uber-diminutive slot man Wan’Dale Robinson has seen eight targets a game through three weeks, but his next top-30 WR finish this year will be his first. Play with fire, get burned. Darius Slayton has conceded almost the entirety of his targets to Nabers, and is still seeing snaps on the outside simply because someone has to be out there. New York Giants tight ends catching passes is fast approaching Bigfoot sighting status, as they have combined for a whopping four receptions in three games. This offense can’t support more than 2 or 3 fantasy-relevant names at a time – even two represents tremendous progress here. As my dear grandma Arlene says, “It’s not how far you go, but how far you’ve come."
Philadelphia Eagles
Total Offense: 411.7/game (2nd)
Passing Yards: 244.3 (5th)
Rushing Yards: 167.3 (3rd)
Offensive TDs: 8 (t-6th)
Prediction: Passing yardage tapers off a bit; other rates hold
The only team in the NFL that can boast both passing and rushing offenses ranked in the top five in the NFL after three games, the Eagles should be scoring points at will. And yet somehow Philly is only scoring 23.3 points per game, a mark that’s good for a somewhat pedestrian 12th in the league, just ahead of the 0-3 Bengals and decidedly tame New York Jets. What gives?
Jalen Hurts is what gives, and what he’s been giving is the ball to the other team. The Eagles have a -4 turnover differential so far that is tied with the Raiders for 30th in the league, and is underpinned by Hurts’ 4 interceptions and two lost fumbles. This has unfortunately been a continuation of a trend that began in 2023, when Hurts threw a career-high 15 picks and accounted for 20 total giveaways. And it’s a real shame, because the rest of this offense is humming: Even with perennial top dog A.J. Brown out for the last two games with a gimpy hamstring, the passing game has only missed about a half-beat: Hurts has thrown for 247 yards a game in Brown’s absence, good for 7th in the NFL over that span, and while one or two heroic efforts went into those numbers, Hurts’ 50.2 YAC% the last two games is a perfectly average 15th in the NFL; he’s not getting propped up by guys catching five-yard throws and turning them into big plays. After playing with fire relentlessly in the season opener (FantasyPoints charted four of Hurts’ 34 pass attempts against Green Bay as turnover-worthy, an 11.8% rate that would make even Anthony Richardson blush), Hurts’ TWT (Turnover Worthy Throw) rate has cooled back off to a 2.9% rate over the last two games much more in line with his 2.4% clip from last year.
While Hurts’ interception-prone play has carried over from 2023, the prodigious rushing scores have not: Philly’s quarterback’s tush has been pushed to paydirt only once through three games. That is still a small sample size, and new OC Kellen Moore has deployed the vaunted ‘Tush Push’ quite liberally in other short yardage situations, but with the sanguine excellence of Saquon Barkley I can’t help but think Hurts’ soft rushing TD drought continues. Barkley’s homecoming is just about pegged to the rosy end of the range of possible outcomes, three weeks in: his 351 yards rushing are tops in the NFL, as are his 220 yards after contact. The Eagles also have not been shy about using Barkley’s 233-pound frame to wear down defenses between the tackles: Barkley's 2.08 yards before contact average are right around Josh Jacobs (2.10) and Derrick Henry (2.14). Through three games Barkley’s on pace for a sparkling 1,989 yards rushing, another 300 receiving, and 28 total touchdowns.
Of course Barkley’s also on pace for 414 touches, which won’t hold up; only four backs have managed to crack even 355 touches in the nascent 17-game era, and only two topped 330 last year. But Barkley did manage to shoulder 352 total touches in his excellent 2022 and 2018 seasons, and the Eagles clearly have every intention of riding Barkley at least that hard. If you drafted him, enjoy the 'push' for 'Quon's first unanimous RB1 finish – and hope for good health in December, when the Eagles will get what currently appear to be two cupcake run defenses in the Commanders and Cowboys in weeks 16 and 17.
On second thought, that 414-touch pace for Saquon may continue for one more week. Heading to Tampa Bay for a rematch with the team that dealt them a 32-9 wild card round bludgeoning and ended their suffering following a head-scratching collapse down the stretch, the Eagles will be without at least the trusty Devonta Smith and his metronomic ‘7 receptions for 75-90 yards'. And considering they have a bye week after this game we have to assume they won’t risk pushing it with A.J. Brown’s hamstring either. That means that the table is nearly set for Dallas Goedert to continue being the hero we need in these dire times for the tight end position (… in fantasy football). After what has felt like a millennia of ho hum production week after week for him in an otherwise high octane offense, Goedert answered the call in a big way against the Saints last week. The seventh-year man established new career-highs with 10 receptions and 170 yards receiving in a performance that had one-handed snags and 60-yard catch and runs alike. I’m not sure that Goedert will find anything like that level of success against the Bucs’ competent group of linebackers and safeties – he does have a penchant for vanishing into the mist for weeks at a time, after all. But I am sure the Eagles will funnel him some looks, and with how beat to heck the position is right now maybe consider yourself lucky to be starting him.
Third year and second chance wideout Jahan Dotson is also notionally in a position to see upwards of 8 targets this week. Go for it if you’re short-handed amid the flotilla of injuries wracking fantasy teams hither, thither and yon, but I wouldn’t otherwise start him over my usual flex suspects outside of full PPR scoring. There aren’t many teams that can simply decide to run the ball 45+ times and still have a chance to win these days, but the Eagles are one of them.
Washington Commanders
Total Offense: 360.0/game (6th)
Passing Yards: 206.3 (16th)
Rushing Yards: 153.7 (5th)
Offensive TDs: 8 (t-6th)
Prediction: Passing yardage regresses, but the scoring is here to stay
Let’s set aside the advanced stats and even the regular stats for a moment and just talk about Jayden Daniels for a moment. After the Commanders made him the number two overall pick in April and put the fate of the franchise’s first chapter under new owner Josh Harris squarely in his hands, they didn’t exactly do a whole heck of a lot to help the young fella. Sure, they brought in Austin Ekeler on the cheap, they patched up the offensive line with some shrewd free agency signings, grabbed a McCaffrey in the draft. It wasn’t quite a bare minimum level of investment, but it was close.
And then, with the season opener barely two weeks away new Commanders GM Adam Peters takes the presumed #2 receiver in the offense in Jahan Dotson and ships him two hours up I-95 to the division rival Eagles for a couple rolls of ankle tape and a stick of Icy Hot. And this wasn't done to declutter a crowded receiver group - fourth-year holdover Dyami Brown is currently functioning as something like the other boundary receiver. To borrow a line from the cartoon dog dad in Bluey, it’s not the done thing!
So, for Daniels to come out and even be middle of the road would have qualified as a perfectly acceptable start to his pro career – it was all he was set up to really achieve here. And while he didn’t manage to throw for any touchdowns in his first two games, rumors of his uncanny accuracy quickly began to bear out (40-of-53 passing, 62.3% highly accurate throw rate that was third-best in the league). It was clear heading into last week’s primetime trip to Cincinnati that Washington had a fish on with the Daniels pick.
But I for one was unprepared for the sheer, unbridled ‘it factor’ that Daniels oozed with for four quarters Monday night. In a game that the Bengals desperately needed to have (and that they absolutely may have stolen if given an opening), Daniels and the Commanders simply never let the Bengals come up for air, gliding down the field on long scoring drives over and over until it was clear that Burrow wasn’t going to have enough time to pull off any magic. Daniels completed 21 of his 23 throws, good for a blistering 95.5% adjusted completion percentage and over 11 yards per attempt in what may wind up being the Commanders’ signature win of the 2024 season. That is, unless Daniels can bottle what he had on tap in this game, in which case the Commanders are legitimate playoff contenders. With an elite rushing floor and showing star potential as a passer, Daniels is an easy start against the Cardinals this week, and until further notice.
So yes, the Commanders are a shorthand for The Jayden Daniels Show right now – the offense will go just about precisely as far as the rookie quarterback is capable of carrying the thing. But Brian Robinson has made the year 3 turn from quietly being one of the league’s better running backs to quietly being one of its best: 4.6 yards per carry, sixth in the league in explosive run rushing yards (90), ninth in yards after contact (133). Robinson and Austin Ekeler have combined to form a potent duo in DC, accounting for 467 of Washington’s 1080 total yards so far. With Ekeler sidelined for Week 4 in the concussion protocol, Robinson should have an RB2 floor against the Cardinals – with room for more.
Another plausible benefactor from Ekeler’s hiatus is Zach Ertz, who’s been steadily stringing together empty 5- and 7-point days to begin his Commanders tenure. Of course, given the state of play at tight end’s been that’s been enough to make Ertz the TE11 in half-PPR scoring. With Ekeler’s dump-off and screen wizardry offline, it scans that Ertz should see a modest bump in work here. I’d like to be able to say that that logic also applied to Terry McLaurin, but it doesn’t: McLaurin’s 13.7 aDOT (average depth of target) is higher than guys like Davante Adams and Chris Olave, and Daniels' 6.1 aDOT currently sits at 33rd in the league. Pushing vertically and flipping the hips of cover corners is something McLaurin has always done well and has downstream benefits for the short passing game, and new OC Kliff Kingsbury has continued using him in much the same way as previous administrations. Jayden Daniels is good, maybe even great, but this is not an offense that has the personnel nor the will to generate a lot of pass volume period, let alone downfield. Unless something changes drastically – like the addition of, say, Davante Adams – in this offense, McLaurin is likely to remain a boom/bust guy.
—Luke Wilson