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Mailbag for November 13, 2024

Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Tee Higgins undervalued? Defenses to pick up for the playoffs. Long-term value of rookie running backs. And more.

Question 1

The Buccaneers d/st face so many “bad teams” after their bye. Is this defense worth running the year out with? I have the 49ers but they seem to have a rough schedule and haven’t excelled this year.

David Fetterman (Kirkland, WA)

That makes a lot of sense to me. The 49ers in the near future will be playing at Green Bay and at Buffalo. I have no interest in their defense in those games. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has a troublesome game left against the Chargers. Justin Herbert has thrown only 1 pick all year. But their other remaining games could not be better: Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Cowboys, Panthers, Saints. I believe the Bucs will put up better defensive numbers than the 49ers.

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Question 2

I noticed that Tee Higgins' rankings for the remainder of the season has fallen. We know he's been hurt, but he's scheduled to return (I think). The games he has played in this year have been productive. Why have you guys projected him to be less effective for the remainder of the season?

Bryce Erickson (Dallas, TX)

There are two components to the player’s grade. There’s the question of how many games he’s going to play? He was a limited participant at practice today, making it seem like he’ll probably be back in the starting lineup this week. And then there’s the question of how he’ll perform. Higgins has played in five games this year; he’s averaged 5.8 catches for 68 yards in those five games, with 3 TDs. If you want to more optimistically argue that he was knocking rust off in his first game back (back in Week 3), you might view him as having averaged 6.5 catches for 76 yards in his last four games, with 3 TDs. If you’re more of a big-picture guy, you might point to him averaging 4.3 catches for 62 yards the last two years, with 12 touchdowns in 27 games. In our current modeling, we’ve got him penciled in conservatively at 4.3 catches for 51 yards when he returns. The thinking being that perhaps the offense has changed some while he was away. Mike Gesicki has caught a bunch of balls the last few weeks – is he now part of the offense? And Jermaine Burton looks ready to now start rotating in for some snaps. But the offense is definitely rolling, with Joe Burrow in top form. As you point out, I may be a little too low on Higgins.

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Question 3

Dynasty league: I have kickers Fairbairn and Moody, and Karty on my taxi squad (thanks to your preseason recommendation), so I need to trade one of them. Who would you shop around and how high of a pick would you ask for? I was thinking of offering Karty since he just had a 5 fg game and his future worth may be the riskiest, with Stafford getting older. Would asking for a 2025 5th-round pick in a rookie dynasty draft be reasonable?

David Jung (San Francisco, CA)

The market is the market, as they say. A lot of owners simply have no interest in trading anything more than a bag of chips for a kicker. So you’ll have to check around, seeing if anyone has any interest in these guys. I would think most would order them Fairbairn-Moody-Karty, but they’re all good. If Fairbairn could fetch you a second, while nobody was offering more than a fifth for either of the others, you’d have to consider moving your top guy. Moody just missed 3 field goals, which is hardly a selling point, but San Francisco’s offense has been awfully kicker friendly. The 49ers are averaging 10.6 kicking points, which is over a point more than even Fairbairn. I wouldn’t worry too much about Stafford. Sean McVay is a good coach; he’ll find somebody who can run his offense.

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Question 4

Enjoy this article weekly! In an auction/keeper league, i am always looking for the future stars. I am especially interested in RBs: Vidal, Davis, Estime, Spears, and Lloyd. What do you expect from these players, next year and the following 2-3 years?

mark meyer (Ocean Park, WA)

Estime looks like he’s ready to move to the top of the depth chart in Denver. He got most of their carries at Kansas City. (I think they’ve gotten tired of waiting for Javonte Williams to come around.) Vidal had that nice touchdown catch on a wheel route a few weeks back, but he took a step back on Sunday. He was a healthy scratch against Tennessee, with the Chargers instead going with Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins as their backup running backs. Spears is sharing time with Tony Pollard but doesn’t look particularly likely to ever develop into what we might call a big-time back. Lloyd should be activated soon by the Packers, but I’m not sure he’ll be moving above Emanuel Wilson on the depth chart anytime soon. With Davis, I would need a hint of who we’re talking about.

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Question 5

It's that time of year – the weather turns cooler, the leaves change colors and the thoughts of fantasy managers turn toward the playoffs. Can you give us a short list of DSTs that stand to do well in Weeks 15-17?

Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)

We can take the performance numbers for each defense, comparing them against the offenses they will face. If we give equal weight to both sides of the ball (averaging the offensive and defensive numbers) we can get initial estimates for the 96 games in that three-week period. The Vikings in Week 15 (hosting Chicago) project to have the best defense, while the Falcons in Week 17 (at Washington) project to have the worst possible defense. The 96 games (in order) appear below. Vikings the only team with two games in the top 10. Three others have two of the top 20: Bills, Bears, Chargers. Rankings assume 1 point for sacks and 2 for each takeaway.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP ESTIMATES, WEEKS 15-17
Wk	Defense	Opp	Sack	Int	FL	Pts
15	Minnesota	Chi.	3.78	1.11	.44	6.89
17	New Orleans	L.V.	2.77	1.16	.65	6.38
17	Chicago	Sea.	2.89	1.00	.72	6.33
16	Indianapolis	Ten.	2.66	1.01	.78	6.24
17	Philadelphia	Dall.	2.72	.89	.78	6.06
17	Minnesota	G.B.	2.33	1.39	.44	6.00
16	Buffalo	N.E.	2.85	.85	.70	5.95
15	Denver	Ind.	2.85	.95	.50	5.75
15	Houston	Mia.	2.73	.93	.58	5.75
16	Cincinnati	Cle.	3.24	.74	.42	5.57
15	LA Chargers	T.B.	2.92	.95	.37	5.57
16	Green Bay	N.O.	2.32	.86	.75	5.53
17	Pittsburgh	K.C.	2.33	1.06	.50	5.44
16	Seattle	Min.	2.67	.89	.50	5.44
17	NY Giants	Ind.	2.90	.65	.60	5.40
17	Buffalo	NYJ	2.40	.90	.60	5.40
16	LA Chargers	Den.	2.57	.80	.57	5.32
17	Jacksonville	Ten.	2.61	.86	.48	5.29
15	San Francisco	LAR	2.39	.94	.50	5.28
16	Chicago	Det.	2.39	.94	.50	5.28
17	Tampa Bay	Car.	2.30	.85	.55	5.10
15	Arizona	N.E.	2.80	.55	.60	5.10
16	Washington	Phil.	2.85	.48	.63	5.07
17	San Francisco	Det.	2.28	1.06	.33	5.06
15	Carolina	Dall.	1.93	.81	.74	5.03
15	Philadelphia	Pitt.	2.72	.44	.61	4.83
16	Kansas City	Hou.	2.81	.58	.42	4.79
16	NY Jets	LAR	2.77	.49	.47	4.69
16	Baltimore	Pitt.	2.88	.41	.48	4.66
17	LA Rams	Ari.	2.08	.65	.62	4.63
15	Detroit	Buff.	1.98	.92	.38	4.58
16	Dallas	T.B.	2.48	.73	.32	4.57
17	Cleveland	Mia.	2.78	.33	.56	4.56
17	Washington	Atl.	2.35	.60	.50	4.55
17	Houston	Balt.	2.10	.75	.45	4.50
15	Cleveland	K.C.	2.61	.56	.39	4.50
16	Atlanta	NYG	1.95	.70	.50	4.35
15	Seattle	G.B.	1.83	.89	.33	4.28
16	Las Vegas	Jac.	2.09	.68	.35	4.15
15	Jacksonville	NYJ	2.20	.60	.35	4.10
16	Miami	S.F.	1.83	.67	.44	4.06
15	New Orleans	Was.	2.15	.70	.25	4.05
17	Cincinnati	Den.	1.70	.60	.55	4.00
15	NY Giants	Balt.	2.45	.15	.55	3.85
17	New England	LAC	2.58	.26	.37	3.83
15	Tennessee	Cin.	2.15	.37	.47	3.82
15	Las Vegas	Atl.	1.94	.68	.20	3.70
16	Carolina	Ari.	1.35	.40	.70	3.55
16	Minnesota	at Sea.	3.22	1.39	.56	7.11
17	Green Bay	at Min.	2.72	1.11	.83	6.61
15	Green Bay	at Sea.	2.78	1.11	.78	6.56
15	Chicago	at Min.	2.83	1.00	.78	6.39
16	Detroit	at Chi.	3.44	1.00	.44	6.33
17	LA Chargers	at N.E.	3.32	.80	.52	5.97
16	Tampa Bay	at Dall.	2.73	.81	.79	5.93
15	Pittsburgh	at Phil.	2.72	.83	.67	5.72
17	Detroit	at S.F.	2.39	1.11	.56	5.72
17	Indianapolis	at NYG	2.60	.75	.80	5.70
16	Houston	at K.C.	2.56	1.15	.42	5.69
15	Kansas City	at Cle.	3.44	.72	.39	5.67
16	Jacksonville	at L.V.	2.72	.81	.65	5.63
15	Baltimore	at NYG	3.05	.65	.55	5.45
17	Baltimore	at Hou.	3.30	.60	.45	5.40
16	San Francisco	at Mia.	2.50	.83	.61	5.39
17	Miami	at Cle.	3.17	.72	.39	5.39
15	Buffalo	at Det.	2.31	1.05	.46	5.32
15	Cincinnati	at Ten.	2.41	.91	.53	5.29
15	Atlanta	at L.V.	2.12	.91	.65	5.23
17	Seattle	at Chi.	3.28	.61	.33	5.17
15	LA Rams	at S.F.	2.39	.89	.50	5.17
17	Denver	at Cin.	2.90	.55	.55	5.10
16	LA Rams	at NYJ	2.48	.85	.42	5.03
15	Indianapolis	at Den.	1.95	.70	.80	4.95
15	NY Jets	at Jac.	2.75	.50	.60	4.95
17	Dallas	at Phil.	2.78	.56	.50	4.89
16	NY Giants	at Atl.	2.80	.45	.55	4.80
16	Arizona	at Car.	2.10	.85	.50	4.80
16	Denver	at LAC	3.08	.41	.42	4.73
16	New Orleans	at G.B.	1.77	1.16	.32	4.71
17	Arizona	at LAR	2.37	.64	.52	4.69
15	Dallas	at Car.	2.18	.88	.37	4.67
15	Washington	at N.O.	2.45	.50	.55	4.55
15	Miami	at Hou.	2.53	.58	.42	4.52
16	Tennessee	at Ind.	2.10	.77	.42	4.47
15	Tampa Bay	at LAC	2.73	.31	.52	4.38
17	Tennessee	at Jac.	2.15	.57	.52	4.32
16	Pittsburgh	at Balt.	1.87	.66	.53	4.25
16	Cleveland	at Cin.	2.65	.26	.52	4.21
16	Philadelphia	at Was.	2.44	.43	.43	4.17
17	Carolina	at T.B.	1.80	.70	.45	4.10
17	Kansas City	at Pitt.	2.39	.39	.44	4.06
15	New England	at Ari.	2.00	.35	.60	3.90
17	Las Vegas	at N.O.	2.04	.58	.25	3.70
17	NY Jets	at Buff.	2.25	.30	.35	3.55
16	New England	at Buff.	1.90	.40	.30	3.30
17	Atlanta	at Was.	1.50	.45	.25	2.90

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