MINNESOTA (at Sea.): About 23 points seems like a fair estimate for the Vikings. That’s what’s indicated by the point spread (Minnesota favored by 3.5, with an over-under of 42.5).
This snippet was first published on December 18.
The Vikings have an above-average offense, but one that’s tailed off some, scoring 25 touchdowns in their last 10 games). Seattle’s defense, meanwhile, is a little better than the season-long numbers suggest – it’s gotten better. Admittedly, the Seahawks were pushed around by Green Bay on Sunday night, but it’s a defense that’s allowed only 23 touchdowns in its last 10. So 2-3 TDs seems like the right number.
Let’s call it an average situation for Aaron Jones. The Seahawks rank 22nd against the run, but they’ve seemed to be above-average at times recently. Most notably, they held Arizona to only 49 rushing yards, and they limited the Rams to 68. Both of those games were at Lumen. The Packers came to this venue last week and ran for 140, but that was more a case of them being patient with the run, rather than simply pushing Seattle around (Josh Jacobs averaged only 3.6 per attempt). So something close to his usual makes sense. For the season, Jones is averaging 70 rushing and 23 receiving yards, with 7 TDs. He’s scored four weeks in a row, but this tends to be an offense that scores its touchdowns through the air (29 TD passes versus only 9 TD runs). Cam Akers got 10 carries off the bench Monday, including a touchdown, but most of that work came after the game had been settled.
Let’s lower expectations for Sam Darnold a notch this week. Seattle’s defense has improved as the season has progressed. It limited Aaron Rodgers to 185 yards three weeks ago, and it held Brock Purdy to 159 yards and a touchdown. Kyler Murray passed for 285 yards in this building, but with his offense managing only a pair of field goals. Weather will need to be looked into later in the week (for now, we’ll assume it’s not going to be a factor). But Darnold has been playing well enough that he tends to grade out as an above-average option. He’s averaged 252 passing yards in his 14 games, with 29 TDs. And the trends makes it look like he’ll be throwing multiple touchdowns. The Vikings have scored over 3 times as many touchdowns on passes rather than runs. They’ve scored at least 3 TDs in eight games this year, and they’ve scored more touchdowns passing than rushing in all but one of those games (the one on Monday night). Seattle’s defense, meanwhile, plays with a similar style. In its last 10 games, it’s allowed 17 TD passes versus only 6 TD runs.
If we’re agreeing that the passing numbers should be a little down this week, it makes sense to rank Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison a little lower. That production needs to come from somewhere. But at the same time, these receivers generally are good enough that it’s tough to ever sit them down. Jefferson is about as good as anyone playing the position; he’s averaging 5.9 catches for 89 yards. He hasn’t been as elite as a touchdown scorer, but 3 of his 8 touchdowns have come in the last two games. Jefferson’s worst game, oddly, came in the game that you might have figured would have been his best – 48 yards against Jacksonville – demonstrating that one should be careful with “matchups” and the very best receivers. Addison is a notch back (he’s averaging 4.3 catches for 64 yards) but he’s actually outscored Jefferson 7-6 in the 12 games that both have been playing. And he’s been hot, going over 130 yards in two of his last four.
Jalen Nailor is their third receiver, but they don’t use him much (he’s caught only 11 passes and 2 TDs in his last 10 games).
T.J. Hockenson looks like a mid-level tight end, rather than the top-tier option he’s been in the past. He’s averaged 4.8 catches in his last six games, but with no touchdowns. He’s a chain mover between the 20s. Since he was activated, the team has thrown 15 touchdowns, and he hasn’t caught any of them (two of those touchdowns, however, have been thrown to other tight ends). This seems to be what Hockenson is nowadays; he’ll catch his 4-6 balls, but probably without a touchdown.
With Will Reichard leading the way, the Vikings have been one of the top half-dozen kicking teams for the bulk of the season, but such production looks unlikely this week. Seattle’s defense has improved dramatically over the last month-plus, and that extends to the kicker position.
The season-long numbers suggest the Vikings Defense will be the best in the league this week. It’s good in any week, of course, with only three teams having more sacks and only the Steelers having more takeaways. But these are areas where the Seahawks have struggled, with a problematic offensive line. Only two teams have allowed more sacks, and only five offenses have more turnovers. Geno Smith left the last game with a knee injury, and if it’s Sam Howell filling in, even better. Special teams is the one weak area; the Vikings are the only team that hasn’t had a 20-yard punt return or a 40-yard kickoff return.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst Package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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