LAS VEGAS (at N.O.): Those who want to talk themselves into using Raiders in Week 17 might reason that the passing game has at least improved some of late. Since switching coordinators, the Raiders have averaged 270 passing yards. And they’re playing this week against a lesser opponent – the similarly crappy Saints.
Only two defenses have allowed more yards. But ultimately, the Raiders are still a dumpster fire. Despite picking up a few more yards, this is still an offense that’s managed only 9 touchdowns in its last six games. It scored only twice against 3-12 Jacksonville, and it scored only 1 TD in each of its previous two (against the Bucs and Falcons). Probably 2 TDs here, and we shouldn’t even be promising that much.
Brock Bowers, at least, can be rolled out as one of the top few options at tight end. He and Malik Nabers are both going to blow by Puka Nacua’s record for most catches by a rookie, and probably both are interested in having that record for themselves. With 101 catches, Bowers enters Week 17 with a 4-catch lead, and he’ll likely get the final word in this duel (with the Raiders playing in the late window in the final week of the season). Zach Ertz has the record for most catches by a tight end (116), and that’s probably one that Bowers wants as well. At a minimum, he should catch 16 passes in these final two games.
Aidan O’Connell is sneaky decent. He’s been a lot better than Las Vegas’ other quarterbacks at avoiding sacks and interceptions, and he’s averaged over a half yard more per attempt. And with the Raiders now having a better offensive coordinator in place, some of numbers are far above what you might expect. Since Scott Turner took over the play-calling, the Raiders have passed for 282, 328, 340, 205, 208 and 257 yards. Just 6 TD passes in those six games, but there’s some reasonable value for those looking for a filler starter in a superflex league. Very reasonable to conclude that a big yards day will make O’Connell one of the 24 most productive quarterbacks in Week 17. The Saints have a bottom-10 pass defense, allowing 258 yards per week entering the Packers game. O’Connell can’t run at all, which works against him. But put him down as a possible low-level option.
Sincere McCormick is out for the year, so the Raiders are down to Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah at tailback. They won’t be doing much. Las Vegas is averaging a league-low 78 rushing yards. McCormick averaged over 5 yards per carry in three games, but they’ve been unable to get things going. Since the coordinator change, they’ve been under 70 yards in four of six games. The Saints haven’t been able to stop the run, so perhaps an extra 20 yards here. But Alexander is averaging only 3.2 yards per attempt. Abdullah is averaging a yard more, but he’s operating as a third-down back, running more draws and whatnot. It’s pretty dire. The slight value here is perhaps in the passing game. Abdullah has caught 7 and 5 passes in his last two games, including a touchdown. He’s caught 23 passes and 3 TDs, in fact, and all of that has come in Scott Turner’s six games. We can reasonably forecast Abdullah will catch 4 passes, and that makes him a warm body in larger PPR leagues.
Considering the Raiders have averaged 270 passing yards since the coordinator chance, Jakobi Meyers has been a mild disappointment, averaging 5.7 catches for 69 yards in those games, with no touchdowns. He’s the clear No. 1 wide receiver, but he’s caught 10 fewer passes than Bowers in those games, and with 2 fewer touchdowns. Meyers has caught only 2 touchdowns all year. But he can at least be rolled out with a reasonable expectation of catching 5-plus passes.
Tre Tucker has been starting since Davante Adams decided he didn’t want to play anymore, but with a lot more misses than hits. He’s gotten downfield for a pair of catches over 50 yards and had a 7-catch game against Denver, but he’s averaged only 3.1 catches for 30 yards in his 12 games, with 2 TDs. The Saints have a lesser defense, so perhaps a little better than that.
Let’s stay well away from Daniel Carlson. He’s a capable enough kicker (with outstanding range), but he’s working with a dumpster fire team. This one’s against a similarly lesser team, but Carlson has scored more than 5 points in barely more than half his games.
The Raiders Defense likely will be facing a rookie quarterback, but they’re hard to take seriously nowadays, sitting at 3-12 and with their two big-ticket defenders (Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins) both done for the season. Las Vegas ranks next-to-last in takeaways and has a bottom-5 pass rush.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 17 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst Package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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