Bo Nix looks like he’ll be one of the more compelling quarterbacks in drafts this summer. As well as he played late in the season, I’m thinking he’ll be putting up top-10 numbers.
Sean Payton knows how to put together an offense, and it tends to be a quarterback-friendly system. Payton didn’t like Russell Wilson, but Wilson nonetheless threw 27 touchdowns versus only 8 picks in 15 games in that offense.
Nix had a great rookie season, and he got a lot better as the season progressed.
Denver in the first half of last season averaged only 198 passing yards, with 9 TDs in nine games. Using standard fantasy scoring, only five teams finished with lesser passing numbers.
TEAM PASSING, FIRST HALF OF SEASON | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | G | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Pts/G |
Tampa Bay | 9 | 71.4% | 265.4 | 23 | 9 | 22.8 |
Baltimore | 9 | 68.4% | 264.4 | 20 | 2 | 21.6 |
Cincinnati | 9 | 70.2% | 249.3 | 20 | 4 | 20.7 |
Atlanta | 9 | 69.0% | 260.2 | 17 | 7 | 19.9 |
Green Bay | 9 | 63.1% | 244.4 | 18 | 10 | 19.8 |
Minnesota | 8 | 69.8% | 243.3 | 17 | 7 | 19.6 |
Detroit | 8 | 74.9% | 236.5 | 16 | 4 | 18.9 |
Dallas | 8 | 63.5% | 268.1 | 12 | 9 | 18.7 |
Buffalo | 9 | 64.2% | 222.9 | 17 | 2 | 18.4 |
Seattle | 9 | 68.2% | 288.3 | 11 | 10 | 18.3 |
NY Jets | 9 | 62.7% | 238.1 | 16 | 7 | 18.2 |
San Francisco | 8 | 64.5% | 262.6 | 10 | 7 | 17.7 |
Kansas City | 8 | 69.9% | 242.8 | 11 | 9 | 17.0 |
Washington | 9 | 71.7% | 238.7 | 11 | 2 | 16.3 |
LA Rams | 8 | 65.7% | 246.1 | 9 | 6 | 16.1 |
Houston | 9 | 63.0% | 247.9 | 11 | 4 | 16.0 |
Jacksonville | 9 | 61.5% | 225.8 | 11 | 6 | 15.3 |
New Orleans | 9 | 63.0% | 219.6 | 11 | 6 | 15.2 |
Philadelphia | 8 | 69.4% | 221.8 | 10 | 4 | 15.1 |
LA Chargers | 8 | 65.3% | 218.6 | 10 | 1 | 15.0 |
Indianapolis | 9 | 54.6% | 208.6 | 11 | 9 | 14.6 |
Arizona | 9 | 67.1% | 199.1 | 11 | 3 | 14.4 |
Las Vegas | 9 | 66.1% | 225.6 | 9 | 10 | 14.2 |
Cleveland | 9 | 61.1% | 209.1 | 10 | 8 | 13.6 |
Chicago | 8 | 61.4% | 208.1 | 9 | 5 | 13.6 |
Pittsburgh | 8 | 65.6% | 208.4 | 8 | 1 | 13.5 |
Denver | 9 | 63.0% | 198.4 | 9 | 6 | 13.4 |
Carolina | 9 | 63.1% | 187.0 | 10 | 12 | 13.3 |
NY Giants | 9 | 62.9% | 209.6 | 8 | 5 | 13.1 |
Tennessee | 8 | 62.8% | 188.1 | 9 | 11 | 13.0 |
Miami | 8 | 66.4% | 208.1 | 6 | 4 | 12.6 |
New England | 9 | 62.0% | 177.6 | 8 | 5 | 11.2 |
But the Broncos let Nix do more in the second half of the season, and he responded. The team averaged 253 passing yards in its last eight games, with 21 TDs versus only 6 interceptions. In the second half of the season, only the Bengals and Lions averaged better overall passing numbers.
TEAM PASSING, SECOND HALF OF SEASON | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | G | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Pts/G |
Cincinnati | 8 | 70.9% | 334.3 | 23 | 5 | 27.2 |
Detroit | 9 | 70.8% | 314.0 | 23 | 8 | 25.4 |
Denver | 8 | 70.3% | 252.8 | 21 | 6 | 22.5 |
Tampa Bay | 8 | 71.5% | 264.5 | 18 | 7 | 21.5 |
Baltimore | 8 | 64.7% | 226.1 | 21 | 2 | 21.4 |
Minnesota | 9 | 64.1% | 270.3 | 18 | 5 | 20.6 |
Miami | 9 | 72.5% | 263.4 | 16 | 6 | 19.4 |
Washington | 8 | 67.5% | 223.0 | 18 | 7 | 19.1 |
Buffalo | 8 | 62.4% | 241.5 | 13 | 4 | 18.6 |
NY Jets | 8 | 64.3% | 234.1 | 15 | 4 | 18.3 |
San Francisco | 9 | 66.3% | 258.1 | 13 | 9 | 18.0 |
Kansas City | 9 | 65.3% | 233.8 | 15 | 2 | 17.4 |
Las Vegas | 8 | 63.0% | 260.9 | 10 | 6 | 17.3 |
Arizona | 8 | 70.4% | 258.4 | 10 | 8 | 17.1 |
LA Chargers | 9 | 66.3% | 239.1 | 13 | 2 | 17.0 |
LA Rams | 9 | 65.6% | 236.3 | 13 | 3 | 17.0 |
Tennessee | 9 | 63.9% | 235.1 | 13 | 10 | 16.6 |
Cleveland | 8 | 58.4% | 249.6 | 9 | 15 | 16.1 |
Carolina | 8 | 61.5% | 216.0 | 12 | 3 | 16.0 |
Green Bay | 8 | 66.0% | 217.4 | 10 | 1 | 15.5 |
Pittsburgh | 9 | 63.3% | 215.6 | 13 | 5 | 15.5 |
New Orleans | 8 | 60.3% | 219.3 | 10 | 6 | 15.2 |
New England | 8 | 67.8% | 218.1 | 10 | 6 | 15.1 |
Dallas | 9 | 61.4% | 216.3 | 11 | 5 | 15.1 |
Seattle | 8 | 71.6% | 223.0 | 10 | 6 | 15.0 |
Philadelphia | 9 | 65.9% | 193.7 | 14 | 2 | 15.0 |
Indianapolis | 8 | 58.2% | 215.3 | 9 | 10 | 14.6 |
Jacksonville | 8 | 64.3% | 210.6 | 8 | 9 | 14.1 |
Houston | 8 | 62.2% | 215.1 | 9 | 8 | 14.1 |
Chicago | 9 | 63.2% | 209.7 | 11 | 2 | 13.9 |
Atlanta | 8 | 60.7% | 242.6 | 4 | 12 | 13.6 |
NY Giants | 8 | 60.8% | 204.4 | 7 | 8 | 12.9 |
A skeptic would point out that Nix padded his stats with 321 yards and 4 TDs in Week 18 against a Kansas City defense that was resting its regulars. That’s fair. And note that three other young quarterbacks last year failed to build on promising first seasons – C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love and Anthony Richardson.
But I like the look of Nix. It’s hopelessly early, but I will guess that he’ll be one of the first 10 quarterbacks on my draft board this summer.
—Ian Allan