The Packers got a great year out of Josh Jacobs, so no one can criticize them too heavily for not bringing back Aaron Jones. But Jones was a nice find for the division-rival Vikings, and yesterday's move by Minnesota suggests the 30-year-old could be their starter again next year.
Jones had a career-high 1,138 rushing yards, while also catching 51 passes for 408 more, with 7 total touchdowns. That ranked him 12th at his position in PPR leagues. The Vikings had to make a decision on a void date on his contract by tomorrow, but they've pushed that date back until the start of free agency, giving them more time to work out a new deal. Kevin O'Connell has said he wants to bring Jones back, which makes sense after the season he just had.
Thirty, or even 29 or 28, seem to be the time teams want to move on from running backs (fantasy coaches too), but there have been a solid number of success stories lately. I pulled the numbers from all 30-year-old running backs to get a significant workload in the last 10 years (I went with 100-plus rushing attempts). There have been 41 such backs, so about 4 per season.
I also included the 29-year-old running backs to get that kind of workload last season; there were five such backs.
Of those backs, 12 (including four last season: Jones, Derrick Henry, and 29-year-olds James Conner and Alvin Kamara) ranked in the top 12 at their position (PPR). Six more at least ranked in the top 25, starters in typical leagues.
In general, while I wouldn't want to be rostering Jones, Kamara or Conner in a dynasty league, I see little reason to think they can't be solid starters in fantasy leagues for the 2025 season. They won't be hotly sought after in best-ball drafts, but could pay off pretty well, relative to where they'll be selected.
In the table, backs who fit the profile from 2024 are in bold.
30-YEAR-OLD RBS (PLUS 2024 29S) WITH 100-PLUS CARRIES, 2015-2024 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 30 | 327 | 1485 | 30 | 222 | 11 | 2 |
2024 | Derrick Henry, Balt. | 30 | 325 | 1921 | 19 | 193 | 18 | 4 |
2023 | Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 31 | 209 | 1012 | 25 | 175 | 21 | 5 |
2015 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 32 | 200 | 907 | 40 | 367 | 11 | 5 |
2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 30 | 218 | 898 | 44 | 389 | 7 | 8 |
2016 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 30 | 299 | 1161 | 7 | 38 | 18 | 9 |
2024 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 29 | 228 | 950 | 68 | 543 | 8 | 9 |
2019 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 30 | 202 | 1018 | 26 | 247 | 15 | 10 |
2021 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl. | 30 | 153 | 618 | 52 | 548 | 11 | 10 |
2024 | James Conner, Ari. | 29 | 236 | 1094 | 47 | 414 | 9 | 11 |
2016 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 33 | 263 | 1025 | 38 | 277 | 8 | 12 |
2024 | Aaron Jones, Min. | 30 | 255 | 1138 | 51 | 408 | 7 | 12 |
2015 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 32 | 260 | 967 | 34 | 267 | 7 | 14 |
2018 | Adrian Peterson, Was. | 33 | 251 | 1042 | 20 | 208 | 8 | 19 |
2017 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 34 | 261 | 961 | 29 | 245 | 4 | 20 |
2016 | Matt Forte, NYJ | 31 | 218 | 813 | 30 | 263 | 8 | 21 |
2015 | Rashad Jennings, NYG | 30 | 195 | 863 | 29 | 296 | 4 | 22 |
2017 | Marshawn Lynch, Oak. | 31 | 207 | 891 | 20 | 151 | 7 | 23 |
2022 | Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 30 | 181 | 891 | 31 | 202 | 5 | 26 |
2024 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 29 | 200 | 728 | 23 | 176 | 7 | 31 |
2022 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl. | 31 | 144 | 695 | 21 | 122 | 9 | 31 |
2019 | Adrian Peterson, Was. | 34 | 211 | 898 | 17 | 142 | 5 | 32 |
2022 | Latavius Murray, 2TM | 32 | 171 | 760 | 27 | 132 | 6 | 32 |
2020 | Latavius Murray, N.O. | 30 | 146 | 656 | 23 | 176 | 5 | 34 |
2016 | Rashad Jennings, NYG | 31 | 181 | 593 | 35 | 201 | 4 | 36 |
2018 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 30 | 161 | 514 | 34 | 238 | 3 | 39 |
2016 | Tim Hightower, N.O. | 30 | 133 | 548 | 22 | 200 | 5 | 39 |
2020 | Adrian Peterson, Det. | 35 | 156 | 604 | 12 | 101 | 7 | 40 |
2019 | LeSean McCoy, K.C. | 31 | 101 | 465 | 28 | 181 | 5 | 40 |
2017 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 30 | 198 | 680 | 8 | 52 | 7 | 41 |
2015 | Justin Forsett, Balt. | 30 | 151 | 641 | 31 | 153 | 2 | 42 |
2017 | Matt Forte, NYJ | 32 | 103 | 381 | 37 | 293 | 3 | 42 |
2017 | LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 31 | 173 | 766 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 45 |
2020 | Frank Gore, NYJ | 37 | 187 | 653 | 16 | 89 | 2 | 46 |
2018 | Frank Gore, Mia. | 35 | 156 | 722 | 12 | 124 | 1 | 47 |
2015 | Chris Johnson, Ari. | 30 | 196 | 814 | 6 | 58 | 3 | 48 |
2021 | Mark Ingram, 2TM | 32 | 160 | 554 | 27 | 162 | 2 | 49 |
2019 | Frank Gore, Buff. | 36 | 166 | 599 | 13 | 100 | 2 | 50 |
2021 | Rex Burkhead, Hou. | 31 | 122 | 427 | 25 | 186 | 3 | 52 |
2021 | Latavius Murray, Balt. | 31 | 119 | 501 | 10 | 75 | 6 | 54 |
2024 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 29 | 102 | 332 | 5 | 31 | 4 | 58 |
2018 | LeGarrette Blount, Det. | 32 | 154 | 418 | 10 | 67 | 5 | 59 |
2024 | Gus Edwards, LAC | 29 | 101 | 365 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 59 |
2017 | Adrian Peterson, 2TM | 32 | 156 | 529 | 11 | 70 | 2 | 61 |
2018 | Chris Ivory, Buff. | 30 | 115 | 385 | 13 | 205 | 1 | 65 |
2018 | Alfred Morris, S.F. | 30 | 111 | 428 | 8 | 73 | 2 | 69 |
--Andy Richardson