Travis Kelce is mulling retirement, and Kansas City has given him a March 14th deadline to make his decision. Depending how that one turns out, the team might have a very intriguing youngster at the position, especially in dynasty formats.
Kelce is due an $11.5 million roster bonus on March 15, explaining why KC needs a decision before they pay that out. Kelce has been so good for so long that even a 97-catch season, like he just had, is considered a disappointment. But despite all those receptions, he had fewer touchdowns (3), yards per game (51) and yards per reception (8.5, which is nearly 4 yards below his career average of 12.1) than any of his other 10 seasons as a starter. He had one good game in the playoffs, against Houston; a total of 6 catches for 58 yards in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl.
Looking at those numbers, and also watching his inability to create separation or get downfield for most of the season, it kind of looks like Kelce should -- will -- hang 'em up. He has other stuff going on, and would not lack for work (the Kelce brothers could have a nice full-time media thing during the season).
If this is it for Kelce, Kansas City will have a new -- and potentially very valuable -- starter at tight end. There's free agency and the draft, but maybe they already have someone on the roster.
Noah Gray will probably be the favorite. The 2021 fifth-rounder comes off his best season, catching 40 passes for 437 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those aren't league-winning numbers, but they were enough to make him the 22nd-best tight end in PPR league even with Kelce around catching 97 passes. In a TE-premium league (1.5 points per reception) and/or one with multiple flex spots, he was a starting option. If Kelce is gone and no veteran or top draft pick is brought in ahead of him, you can start thinking about Gray as a possible top-15 tight end, maybe better. He put up last year's numbers on just 49 total targets, fewer than all 21 of the guys who finished ahead of him in PPR.
Kansas City drafted Jared Wiley in the fourth round a year ago, a round earlier than they'd selected Gray. Wiley didn't get much of an opportunity as their 3rd tight end, and then tore his ACL in practice in early November. He'll miss a good chunk of the offseason program, and won't necessarily be ready for the start of the 2025 season. That's just 10 months after surgery. Unfortunate, with Wiley otherwise looking like an intriguing dynasty stash.
In college (first at Texas, and then as a featured receiver at TCU his last two seasons), Wiley was a productive scorer. Of the 90 passes he caught in college, 15 of them went for touchdowns. That scoring rate of 16.7 percent ranked 15th among college tight ends who caught at least 75 passes over the past 10 years. A lot of the guys ahead of Wiley have gone on to be productive NFL players. A couple of Ravens, Andrews and Likely, catch the eye.
Table, compiled using the search tools at sports-reference.com, shows all college TEs from the last 10 years with 75-plus receptions and over 14 percent of them going for touchdowns. (I could have cropped it at 15 percent but wanted to get Brock Bowers in there.)
| COLLEGE TIGHT ENDS, 75-PLUS CATCHES (2015-2024) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yds | TD | TD% |
| Noah Fant | 78 | 1083 | 19 | 24.4% |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 98 | 1187 | 23 | 23.5% |
| Isaac Rex | 112 | 1385 | 24 | 21.4% |
| Isaiah Likely | 133 | 2050 | 27 | 20.3% |
| RJ Maryland | 86 | 1173 | 17 | 19.8% |
| Ryan Yurachek | 126 | 1205 | 24 | 19.0% |
| Mark Andrews | 81 | 1276 | 15 | 18.5% |
| Kyle Pitts | 100 | 1492 | 18 | 18.0% |
| Kylen Granson | 78 | 1257 | 14 | 17.9% |
| Jordan Leggett | 86 | 1261 | 15 | 17.4% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 92 | 1185 | 16 | 17.4% |
| Cole Turner | 111 | 1282 | 19 | 17.1% |
| Josh Whyle | 88 | 1062 | 15 | 17.0% |
| Kamari Morales | 95 | 1086 | 16 | 16.8% |
| Payne Durham | 126 | 1275 | 21 | 16.7% |
| Jared Wiley | 90 | 1013 | 15 | 16.7% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 79 | 1102 | 13 | 16.5% |
| Ryan Smith | 87 | 1061 | 14 | 16.1% |
| Joshua Simon | 154 | 1921 | 24 | 15.6% |
| Theo Johnson | 77 | 938 | 12 | 15.6% |
| Ben Sims | 78 | 785 | 12 | 15.4% |
| Eli Wilson | 78 | 775 | 12 | 15.4% |
| Daniel Barker | 85 | 1066 | 13 | 15.3% |
| Sean Dykes | 125 | 1789 | 19 | 15.2% |
| C.J. Conrad | 80 | 1015 | 12 | 15.0% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 107 | 1414 | 16 | 15.0% |
| Brock Bowers | 175 | 2538 | 26 | 14.9% |
| Jack Velling | 81 | 1130 | 12 | 14.8% |
| Bucky Hodges | 88 | 1221 | 13 | 14.8% |
| Greg Dulcich | 77 | 1353 | 11 | 14.3% |
| Marshon Ford | 127 | 1585 | 18 | 14.2% |
I kind of think Kelce will hang 'em up. Maybe his girlfriend being booed at the Super Bowl has him thinking, eh, do I need this anymore? If he does, Gray is the current favorite to be the team's Week 1 starter at tight end. But let's put Wiley on a deep sleeper list, especially in dynasty formats (given the November ACL tear).
--Andy Richardson