I’m a John Harbaugh fan. His 18 teams in Baltimore averaged 10 wins (closer to 11, if including the playoffs). But I find the hiring of Matt Nagy to be underwhelming.
I understand that Nagy has been around Andy Reid for years. And Nagy also had a four-year run with the Bears. But has any current offensive coach done less with more?
Nagy has been working with Patrick Mahomes the last three years – arguably the best quarterback in the history of the game. Those teams also had Travis Kelce – admittedly older, but a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Yet those offenses scored only 37, 41 and 38 touchdowns the last three seasons, below-average each year. Kansas City quietly forced him out at the end of the season.
Each of Nagy’s last three offenses in Chicago were also below-average at putting the ball in the end zone, with 28, 38 and 30 touchdowns. (Somehow he got 44 TDs out of the Bears in 2018, so give him some credit there.)
But while the Giants have some interesting offensive pieces, with Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas and Jaxson Dart leading the way, I don’t have a lot of confidence that Nagy is the right guy to be calling the shots on that side of the ball. And this is Nagy’s show – Harbaugh is a CEO head coach.
Using standard fantasy scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards) Kansas City has ranked 8th, 13th and 17th in passing production the last three years. That’s decent production, but underwhelming when adjusting for Mahomes being at quarterback. Too often, they were unable to come up with adjustments for what defenses were throwing at them.
None of Nagy’s Chicago offenses ranked higher than 19th in passing. Is this really the guy they want overseeing Dart?
| MATT NAGY OFFENSES, PASSING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pct | Yd/G | TD | Ind | Rk |
| 2018 | Chicago | 67.2% | 234.2 | 28 | 14 | 19 |
| 2019 | Chicago | 64.0% | 223.3 | 20 | 12 | 26 |
| 2020 | Chicago | 65.5% | 245.3 | 26 | 16 | 19 |
| 2021 | Chicago | 61.3% | 213.8 | 16 | 20 | 29 |
| 2023 | Kansas City | 66.3% | 257.8 | 28 | 17 | 8 |
| 2024 | Kansas City | 67.3% | 238.0 | 26 | 11 | 13 |
| 2025 | Kansas City | 62.2% | 232.2 | 23 | 12 | 17 |
Nagy’s offenses haven’t tended to run the ball well either. Kansas City has averaged 105 rushing yards per week over the last three years. Chicago ranked 16th in rushing in 2021 and KC was 17th two years ago, but his last four other teams have all ranked outside the top 20. (Again, that’s using fantasy scoring – 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.)
| MATT NAGY OFFENSES, RUSHING | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yd/G | Yd/Att | TD | Rank |
| 2018 | Chicago | 121.1 | 4.1 | 16 | 9 |
| 2019 | Chicago | 91.1 | 3.7 | 8 | 28 |
| 2020 | Chicago | 102.9 | 4.2 | 12 | 27 |
| 2021 | Chicago | 118.7 | 4.2 | 14 | 16 |
| 2023 | Kansas City | 104.9 | 4.3 | 9 | 21 |
| 2024 | Kansas City | 105.3 | 4.0 | 15 | 17 |
| 2025 | Kansas City | 106.6 | 4.2 | 15 | 23 |
With those last three KC offenses, of course, Nagy didn’t have overall control. He’s not picking players, and Andy Reid was calling the plays. But Nagy had a hand in it, and he was unable to help get them where they needed to be.
In New York, there are three other coaches who’ve been NFL offensive coordinators: Brian Callahan, Greg Roman and Tim Kelly. Maybe that trio can help Nagy cobble together a viable offense. But my early lean is that I won’t be looking to buy much stock in New York players.
—Ian Allan
