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Pickens may be moving on

Dallas uncertain to keep star wideout

George Pickens is in the news this week. It sounds like Jerry Jones' bold optimism regarding the mercurial wide receiver back in November was overstated, at least based on more recent reports.

Back then, Jones said he was "looking forward to getting things worked out so George can be a Cowboy a long time.” Based on what Ian Rapoport was saying yesterday, that long time may be just a couple of months. Rapoport says the Cowboys are going to franchise Pickens, and that they could trade be willing to trade him away for a second-round pick.

With media reports in general, and especially with Rapoport in my opinion, it's useful to look at what seems to be reliable reporting and what is more empty speculation, which often turns out to be wrong. In this case, Pickens being franchised seems pretty likely; the Cowboys have some history of franchising star players and dragging their feet on working out contracts (or not working them out, as seen with Micah Parsons last year).

But the part that says Dallas could be willing to trade him for a second-round pick? That sounds like Rapoport just guessing. I think there's a decent chance the Cowboys see the considerable value that Pickens brings to the team and finds a way to keep him around.

Yards per target is a good stat; yards generated by receivers on all passes thrown their way. Pickens has been one of the league's very best in this regard twice in the last three seasons. The kind of guy worth investing in, if you can put up with the occasional on-field headaches.

Table shows yards per target numbers from wide receivers with 100-plus passes thrown their way in the last three seasons. Pickens has accounted for two of the eight best figures in this regard. Lot of great players up there, but he's the only one showing up twice in the top 10.

YARDS PER TARGETS, 2023-2025
YearPlayerTgtRecYdsAvgTDY/Tgt
2023Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.10575134217.9712.8
2023Nico Collins, Hou.10980129716.2811.9
2025Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea.163119179315.11011.0
2025Jameson Williams, Det.10265111717.2711.0
2023George Pickens, Pitt.10663114018.1510.8
2023Justin Jefferson, Min.10068107415.8510.7
2023Tyreek Hill, Mia.171119179915.11310.5
2025George Pickens, Dall.13793142915.4910.4
2025Puka Nacua, LAR166129171513.31110.3
2025Zay Flowers, Balt.11886121114.1610.3
2024Ladd McConkey, LAC11282114914.0710.3
2023DJ Moore, Chi.13696136414.2910.0
2024Justin Jefferson, Min.154103153314.91010.0
2025Stefon Diggs, N.E.10285101311.949.9
2023Amari Cooper, Cle.12872125017.459.8
2024Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.175127170813.5179.8
2023Jaylen Waddle, Mia.10472101414.149.8
2023CeeDee Lamb, Dall.181135174913.0149.7
2024Brian Thomas, Jac.13387128214.7109.6
2023DeVonta Smith, Phil.11281106613.279.5
2024Terry McLaurin, Was.11782109613.4139.4
2023DK Metcalf, Sea.11966111416.989.4
2024Darnell Mooney, Atl.1066499215.559.4
2024Puka Nacua, LAR1067999012.549.3
2025Nico Collins, Hou.12071111715.779.3
2023Puka Nacua, LAR160105148614.269.3
2023Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.164119151512.7109.2
2023Mike Evans, T.B.13679125515.9139.2
2023A.J. Brown, Phil.158106145613.779.2
2025CeeDee Lamb, Dall.11775107714.439.2
2023Rashee Rice, K.C.1027993811.979.2
2024DK Metcalf, Sea.1086699215.059.2
2024Zay Flowers, Balt.11674105914.349.1
2024Mike Evans, T.B.11074100413.6119.1
2025Jaylen Waddle, Mia.1006491014.269.1
2024Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.141115126311.0129.0
2025DeVonta Smith, Phil.11377100813.148.9
2024George Pickens, Pitt.1035990015.338.7
2024Jauan Jennings, S.F.1137797512.768.6
2024Jerry Jeudy, Cle.14590122913.748.5
2024Calvin Ridley, Ten.12064101715.958.5
2023Jordan Addison, Min.1087091113.0108.4
2023Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.145100121612.278.4
2024Tee Higgins, Cin.1097391112.5108.4
2025Tetairoa McMillan, Car.12270101414.578.3
2025A.J. Brown, Phil.12178100312.978.3
2023Keenan Allen, LAC150108124311.578.3
2024Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea.137100113011.368.2
2023Drake London, Atl.1106990513.128.2
2024Khalil Shakir, Buff.1007682110.848.2
2025Drake London, Atl.1126891913.578.2
2025Courtland Sutton, Den.12474101713.778.2
2025Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.172117140112.0118.1
2023Chris Olave, N.O.13887112312.958.1
2024Drake London, Atl.158100127112.798.0
2024Courtland Sutton, Den.13581108113.488.0
2025Michael Wilson, Ari.12678100612.978.0
2024Jakobi Meyers, L.V.12987102711.848.0

Pickens comes with some issues, stuff like jawing with (or actually fighting with) defensive backs, sometimes while plays are going on around him. No doubt contract talks won't be easy, and Dallas doesn't have unlimited cap room, with plenty of money tied up in other star players.

But this was the league's top-ranked passing game a year ago, and Pickens was a huge part of that. Dallas was able to keep him in line and focused all year, and may believe they can keep that going. (More than some other teams, certainly; Pittsburgh didn't want to deal with him, and there will certainly be plenty of other teams that say no thanks.) Is Dallas going to want to trade him at a discount? He's still just 24 years old, and if they can't get fair value for his on-the-field play, seems better to pay the man.

We'll see, but I'm not convinced that Dallas will be letting him go for an unknown draft pick which probably won't produce a player nearly as good.

--Andy Richardson

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