I'm flummoxed by how to rank Joe Burrow next year. On the one hand, he burned a whole lot of us by immediately getting hurt and missing most of last season. On the other hand, he's sure been great when he's on the field.
It's a Christian McCaffrey-like situation, although Burrow is theoretically in his prime and playing a position that shouldn't be as much of an injury risk as a franchise running back. If he stays on the field, he can win fantasy titles. It's the staying on the field that's hard to trust.
Three times in his six-year career, Burrow has missed 6-plus games; twice in the past three years. The other three times, he's played 16 or 17 games, and helped win fantasy titles. There's no middle ground with the guy.
Over the last two seasons, on a per-game basis, you can't do better than him. Even with relatively modest rushing production, Burrow has averaged more total yards and more total touchdowns than any other quarterback.
Table shows per-game numbers for all quarterback who've started at least half the time since the start of the 2024 season. It's sorted by touchdowns, but Burrow would also be No. 1 if sorted by total yards. If sorted by fantasy points, he'd come in 3rd, just behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (with rushing production worth twice as much in most fantasy leagues). Jackson, of course, also carries some injury risk.
| QUARTERBACKS PER GAME, 2024-2025 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | PYd | TDP | RYd | TDR | Pts | TYds | TD |
| Joe Burrow | 25 | 269.1 | 2.40 | 9.7 | .08 | 24.5 | 278.8 | 2.48 |
| Josh Allen | 34 | 217.6 | 1.56 | 32.6 | .79 | 25.3 | 250.3 | 2.35 |
| Lamar Jackson | 30 | 224.0 | 2.07 | 42.1 | .20 | 25.0 | 266.2 | 2.27 |
| Jared Goff | 34 | 270.4 | 2.09 | 3.0 | .03 | 22.4 | 273.4 | 2.12 |
| Jalen Hurts | 31 | 197.6 | 1.39 | 33.9 | .71 | 23.1 | 231.5 | 2.10 |
| Baker Mayfield | 34 | 241.0 | 1.97 | 22.4 | .12 | 23.0 | 263.3 | 2.09 |
| Brock Purdy | 24 | 251.3 | 1.67 | 19.6 | .33 | 23.3 | 270.9 | 2.00 |
| Matthew Stafford | 33 | 256.6 | 2.00 | 1.3 | .00 | 21.0 | 257.9 | 2.00 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 27 | 224.1 | 1.48 | 17.7 | .44 | 21.9 | 241.9 | 1.93 |
| Bo Nix | 34 | 226.6 | 1.59 | 23.1 | .29 | 22.0 | 249.8 | 1.88 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 30 | 250.5 | 1.60 | 24.3 | .23 | 22.9 | 274.8 | 1.83 |
| Sam Darnold | 34 | 246.1 | 1.76 | 9.0 | .03 | 20.6 | 255.1 | 1.79 |
| Drake Maye | 29 | 229.2 | 1.59 | 29.6 | .21 | 22.3 | 258.9 | 1.79 |
| Dak Prescott | 25 | 261.2 | 1.64 | 9.2 | .12 | 21.5 | 270.4 | 1.76 |
| Jayden Daniels | 24 | 201.3 | 1.38 | 48.7 | .33 | 22.8 | 250.0 | 1.71 |
| Bryce Young | 28 | 191.4 | 1.36 | 16.3 | .29 | 18.4 | 207.8 | 1.64 |
| Jordan Love | 30 | 225.7 | 1.60 | 9.4 | .03 | 19.2 | 235.1 | 1.63 |
| Justin Herbert | 33 | 230.2 | 1.48 | 24.4 | .12 | 20.9 | 254.6 | 1.61 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 33 | 218.8 | 1.58 | 5.1 | .03 | 18.1 | 223.8 | 1.61 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25 | 221.1 | 1.56 | 3.7 | .00 | 17.9 | 224.8 | 1.56 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 17 | 238.9 | 1.47 | 12.8 | .06 | 19.6 | 251.7 | 1.53 |
| Kyler Murray | 22 | 218.8 | 1.23 | 33.9 | .27 | 21.0 | 252.6 | 1.50 |
| Caleb Williams | 34 | 220.1 | 1.38 | 25.8 | .12 | 20.1 | 245.9 | 1.50 |
| Daniel Jones | 23 | 224.8 | 1.17 | 18.7 | .30 | 19.7 | 243.5 | 1.48 |
| Kirk Cousins | 22 | 234.2 | 1.27 | .2 | .05 | 17.1 | 234.4 | 1.32 |
| Geno Smith | 32 | 229.5 | 1.25 | 11.9 | .06 | 18.1 | 241.4 | 1.31 |
| C.J. Stroud | 31 | 218.3 | 1.26 | 14.3 | .03 | 17.6 | 232.6 | 1.29 |
| Cam Ward | 17 | 186.4 | .88 | 9.4 | .12 | 14.5 | 195.8 | 1.00 |
So the question remains: do we draft Burrow early again next year, risking the same thing that happened this year? On top of the injury risk, there was the story last year with Burrow suggesting his heart wasn't really in even playing football at times ("If I'm going to keep doing this, I have to have fun").
On his behalf, Burrow will certainly come at an injury discount, and sometimes that pays off (Matthew Stafford this year, for example). Those who wait on the position just a little can get a potential top-2 quarterback a few spots lower than that. And Burrow wasn't the only guy who got hurt last year: Mahomes, Daniels, Lamar all missed time.
We'll see, but I suspect I'll be willing to draft him again. I'll want to secure a quality backup, but seems like a risk I'll be willing to take on in 2026.
--Andy Richardson
