The Titans say they’re excited about Carnell Tate. He was the guy, as they tell it, they were hoping to take all along with that No. 4 overall pick. A guy who can grow and blossom with Cam Ward. Now, let’s see what happens.
This is the way it happens. You take a player, and then you cross your fingers and hope he’s as good as you think he is.
History shows that along with the hits come plenty of misses. The last time the Titans took a player with a top-5 overall, after all, things never quite got off the ground. Corey Davis had a game with 2 TDs at New England in the playoffs, but he never came close to living up to expectations.
Nor have a bunch of others.
There have been 25 wide receivers selected with top-10 picks in the last 20 years. This is the group that Tate and Jordyn Tyson are joining. Fourteen of those guys posted top-30 numbers (PPR scoring) in their first season, but 11 didn’t.
| BEST SEASONS BY TOP-10 RECEIVERS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | No | Rec | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 5 | 81 | 1455 | 21 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 6 | 109 | 1204 | 2 | 7 | 273.6 | 6 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 6 | 104 | 1015 | 3 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 7 | 68 | 1051 | 0 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2025 | Tetairoa McMillan, Car. | 8 | 70 | 1014 | 0 | 7 | 213.4 | 15 |
| 2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 4 | 65 | 1057 | 53 | 7 | 218.0 | 17 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 4 | 72 | 1070 | -3 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 10 | 83 | 1103 | 4 | 4 | 217.7 | 21 |
| 2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 6 | 54 | 959 | 56 | 8 | 203.5 | 21 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 4 | 65 | 982 | 8 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
| 2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 8 | 72 | 866 | 0 | 4 | 184.6 | 28 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 5 | 64 | 865 | 23 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 10 | 64 | 916 | 0 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
| 2024 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 4 | 62 | 885 | 0 | 8 | 198.5 | 30 |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 2 | 48 | 756 | 52 | 5 | 158.8 | 38 |
| 2024 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 9 | 54 | 734 | 15 | 3 | 146.9 | 49 |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 8 | 40 | 418 | 151 | 6 | 132.9 | 53 |
| 2009 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 10 | 48 | 625 | 0 | 2 | 122.5 | 60 |
| 2007 | Ted Ginn, Mia. | 9 | 34 | 420 | 3 | 3 | 94.3 | 74 |
| 2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 5 | 34 | 375 | 0 | 0 | 71.5 | 85 |
| 2025 | Travis Hunter, Jac. | 2 | 28 | 298 | 0 | 1 | 63.8 | 97 |
| 2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 7 | 9 | 124 | 19 | 1 | 29.3 | 118 |
| 2017 | Mike Williams, LAC | 7 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 139 |
| 2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 9 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1.2 | 199 |
| 2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2026 | Carnell Tate, Ten. | 4 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2026 | Jordyn Tyson, N.O. | 8 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Of those 25 wide receivers, 10 haven’t yet had a season with top-25 numbers (again, PPR). That’s 40 percent. And when a team takes a receiver in the top 10, it’s expecting something better than top-25 production.
Admittedly, some of these guys are just getting started, including five selected in the 2024-25 drafts – Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, McMillan and Travis Hunter (who’s looking like he’ll be more of a cornerback than receiver).
But the big-picture odds suggest there’s a good chance either Tate or Tyson will quietly fall short of expectations. Not to jinx either of them. Tate is the only first-round receiver in the last five years who didn’t drop a pass his final year of college ball. And I like that Tyson will be working with Kellen Moore, who pumped a ton of balls to his wide receivers last year. But time will tell.
In the chart below, you’re looking at the best season (rookie year or otherwise) so far for wide receivers selected with top-10 picks.
| BEST SEASONS BY TOP-10 RECEIVERS (last 20 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | No | Rec | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson | 5 | 96 | 1681 | 11 | 16 | 361.2 | 1 |
| 2024 | Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 127 | 1708 | 32 | 17 | 403.0 | 1 |
| 2015 | Julio Jones | 5 | 136 | 1871 | 0 | 9 | 377.1 | 2 |
| 2016 | Mike Evans | 3 | 96 | 1321 | 0 | 12 | 304.1 | 3 |
| 2013 | A.J. Green | 3 | 98 | 1426 | 0 | 11 | 306.6 | 4 |
| 2024 | Drake London | 3 | 100 | 1271 | -3 | 9 | 280.8 | 5 |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers | 1 | 109 | 1204 | 2 | 7 | 273.6 | 6 |
| 2022 | Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 75 | 1356 | 26 | 8 | 261.2 | 8 |
| 2022 | DeVonta Smith | 2 | 95 | 1196 | 0 | 7 | 256.6 | 9 |
| 2024 | Garrett Wilson | 3 | 101 | 1104 | 5 | 7 | 255.9 | 9 |
| 2022 | Amari Cooper | 8 | 78 | 1160 | 0 | 9 | 248.0 | 10 |
| 2021 | Mike Williams | 5 | 76 | 1146 | 0 | 9 | 246.6 | 13 |
| 2012 | Michael Crabtree | 4 | 85 | 1105 | 8 | 9 | 250.3 | 15 |
| 2025 | Tetairoa McMillan | 1 | 70 | 1014 | 0 | 7 | 213.4 | 15 |
| 2015 | Sammy Watkins | 2 | 60 | 1047 | 1 | 9 | 218.8 | 20 |
| 2015 | Tavon Austin | 3 | 52 | 473 | 434 | 10 | 202.7 | 27 |
| 2011 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 64 | 975 | 0 | 4 | 185.5 | 28 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon | 1 | 64 | 865 | 23 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
| 2020 | Corey Davis | 4 | 65 | 984 | 0 | 5 | 193.4 | 29 |
| 2024 | Marvin Harrison | 1 | 62 | 885 | 0 | 8 | 198.5 | 30 |
| 2015 | Ted Ginn | 9 | 44 | 739 | 60 | 10 | 183.9 | 34 |
| 2024 | Rome Odunze | 1 | 54 | 734 | 15 | 3 | 146.9 | 49 |
| 2019 | John Ross | 3 | 28 | 506 | 4 | 3 | 97.0 | 74 |
| 2025 | Travis Hunter | 1 | 28 | 298 | 0 | 1 | 63.8 | 97 |
| 2016 | Kevin White | 2 | 19 | 187 | 9 | 0 | 38.6 | 123 |
| 2026 | Carnell Tate | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2026 | Jordyn Tyson | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a bonus, I will close with a chart showing the best four seasons for each of these receivers (via where they ranked among the WR position using PPR scoring).
Of these receivers, fewer than half (11) have had a season with top-10 numbers. (Guys without a top-10 season are tagged with black dots.)
| TOP-10 RECEIVERS -- BEST FOUR SEASONS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Tm | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson | 2 | Det. | 1st | 1st | 3rd | 6th |
| 2007 | • Ted Ginn | 9 | Mia. | 33rd | 34th | 34th | 48th |
| 2009 | • Darrius Heyward-Bey | 7 | Oak. | 28th | 56th | 88th | 95th |
| 2009 | • Michael Crabtree | 10 | S.F. | 15th | 17th | 27th | 30th |
| 2011 | A.J. Green | 4 | Cin. | 4th | 4th | 8th | 10th |
| 2011 | Julio Jones | 6 | Atl. | 2nd | 3rd | 3rd | 6th |
| 2012 | • Justin Blackmon | 5 | Jac. | 29th | 93rd | -- | -- |
| 2013 | • Tavon Austin | 8 | St.L. | 27th | 52nd | 53rd | 81st |
| 2014 | • Sammy Watkins | 4 | Buff. | 20th | 27th | 41st | 50th |
| 2014 | Mike Evans | 7 | T.B. | 3rd | 7th | 9th | 9th |
| 2015 | • Kevin White | 7 | Chi. | 123rd | 164th | 172nd | 189th |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper | 4 | Cle. | 10th | 10th | 15th | 15th |
| 2017 | • Corey Davis | 5 | Ten. | 29th | 29th | 64th | 69th |
| 2017 | • John Ross | 9 | Cin. | 74th | 86th | 129th | 199th |
| 2017 | • Mike Williams | 7 | LAC | 13rd | 33rd | 33rd | 41st |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith | 10 | Phil. | 9th | 19th | 20th | 28th |
| 2021 | Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | Cin. | 1st | 4th | 5th | 11th |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle | 6 | Mia. | 8th | 12nd | 24th | 34th |
| 2022 | Drake London | 8 | Atl. | 5th | 18th | 28th | 36th |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson | 10 | NYJ | 9th | 21st | 26th | 63rd |
| 2024 | • Marvin Harrison | 4 | Ari. | 30th | 50th | -- | -- |
| 2024 | • Rome Odunze | 9 | Chi. | 41st | 49th | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers | 6 | NYG | 6th | 102nd | -- | -- |
| 2025 | • Tetairoa McMillan | 8 | Car. | 15th | -- | -- | -- |
| 2025 | • Travis Hunter | 2 | Jac. | 97th | -- | -- | -- |
| 2026 | Carnell Tate | 4 | Ten. | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2026 | Jordyn Tyson | 8 | N.O. | -- | -- | -- | -- |
—Ian Allan
