I see that the new coaching staff for the Giants wants Jaxson Dart to run less. That’s not surprising, and it has me thinking he’ll be falling short of expectations in his second season.
It was Dart’s rushing production, after all, that made him sneaky good last year. He averaged 41 rushing yards in his 12 starts, and with 9 TDs. With rushing production richly rewarded in typical fantasy formats, that made him much more valuable than most everyone was expecting.
Suppose, for example, that you’re in a league that gives 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 points for touchdowns. He averaged 8.6 rushing points per game in that style of league. In the 32-team era, only 12 quarterbacks have averaged more rushing stats per game (among those starting over half of the season).
| RUSHING PRODUCTION PER GAME (since 2002) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | RYd | TDR | Pts |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 80.4 | .47 | 10.8 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 76.2 | .53 | 10.8 |
| 2022 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 50.7 | .87 | 10.3 |
| 2010 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 11 | 52.1 | .82 | 10.1 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 55.0 | .73 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 42.0 | .93 | 9.8 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 44.1 | .88 | 9.7 |
| 2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 67.0 | .47 | 9.5 |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 51.2 | .69 | 9.2 |
| 2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 52.3 | .67 | 9.2 |
| 2020 | Cam Newton, N.E. | 15 | 39.5 | .87 | 9.1 |
| 2023 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 17 | 35.6 | .88 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | Jaxson Dart, NYG | 12 | 40.6 | .75 | 8.6 |
| 2011 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 11 | 56.6 | .45 | 8.4 |
| 2002 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 15 | 51.8 | .53 | 8.4 |
| 2023 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 30.8 | .88 | 8.4 |
| 2025 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 34.1 | .82 | 8.3 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 54.3 | .47 | 8.2 |
| 2002 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 10 | 46.0 | .60 | 8.2 |
That’s pretty cool, but it’s also unsustainable. He exposed himself to way too many hits last year, and many were unnecessary (particularly that sideline hit at Foxboro). Hence the move by the new coaching staff to make Dart a better decision maker.
“That was one of like our first meetings with [quarterbacks coach Brian] Callahan, you know, just pulling up my tape and just going over situationally like, you know, is it worth the risk here in this situation? That’s what we talk about a ton is just situationally just being smart. … I obviously understand the most important thing is to be out there. You just grow and learn from things. I think I’m gonna do a good job this year, for sure.”
I imagine he’ll still run more than most, particularly in the red zone. But I think we could be looking at about a 50 percent decline in his rushing numbers. And that should make it hard for him to keep pace with the top-tier players at the position.
In the 2025 season, 30 quarterbacks started at least half the season, and Dart averaged better overall numbers than all but six of them. With those rushing stats factored in, remarkably, he averaged better overall fantasy numbers than the likes of Goff, Prescott, Herbert and Lamar Jackson.
But parse out the rushing stats, and Dart is left with an average of 189 passing yards in his 12 starts, with 15 TDs. So for passing purposes, he ranked only 26th over those 30 quarterbacks.
What we’ve got, I think, is more of a guy who’ll be finishing in the teens statistically – a second quarterback in a 12-team league. Not a player I expect to be drafting.
| PASSING STATS PER START (2025) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Pts |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 17 | 276.9 | 2.71 | .47 | 14.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett, Ari. | 12 | 280.5 | 1.92 | .67 | 14.5 |
| Jared Goff, Det. | 17 | 268.5 | 2.00 | .47 | 13.9 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 17 | 267.8 | 1.76 | .59 | 13.8 |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | 17 | 258.5 | 1.82 | .47 | 13.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 14 | 256.2 | 1.57 | .79 | 13.2 |
| Tyler Shough, N.O. | 9 | 250.7 | 1.11 | .56 | 12.8 |
| Joe Flacco, Cle.-Cin. | 10 | 245.1 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 12.6 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 9 | 240.8 | 2.22 | 1.11 | 12.6 |
| Daniel Jones, Ind. | 13 | 238.5 | 1.46 | .62 | 12.3 |
| Sam Darnold, Sea. | 17 | 238.1 | 1.47 | .82 | 12.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 235.7 | 1.71 | .71 | 12.2 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 16 | 232.9 | 1.63 | .81 | 12.1 |
| Caleb Williams, Chi. | 17 | 231.9 | 1.59 | .41 | 12.0 |
| Bo Nix, Den. | 17 | 231.2 | 1.47 | .65 | 11.9 |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | 15 | 225.4 | 1.53 | .40 | 11.7 |
| Michael Penix, Atl. | 9 | 220.2 | 1.00 | .33 | 11.3 |
| Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 17 | 217.2 | 1.53 | .65 | 11.2 |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 14 | 217.2 | 1.36 | .57 | 11.2 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 215.8 | 1.47 | .59 | 11.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers, Pitt. | 16 | 207.6 | 1.50 | .44 | 10.8 |
| Jalen Hurts, Phi. | 16 | 201.5 | 1.56 | .38 | 10.5 |
| Geno Smith, L.V. | 15 | 201.7 | 1.27 | 1.13 | 10.4 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 13 | 196.1 | 1.62 | .54 | 10.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 14 | 190.0 | 1.43 | 1.07 | 9.9 |
| Jaxson Dart, NYG | 12 | 189.3 | 1.25 | .42 | 9.8 |
| Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 188.2 | 1.44 | .69 | 9.8 |
| Cam Ward, Ten. | 17 | 186.4 | .88 | .41 | 9.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy, Min. | 10 | 163.2 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 8.4 |
| Justin Fields, NYJ | 9 | 139.9 | .78 | .11 | 7.2 |
—Ian Allan
