Couple of stories involving Broncos running backs floating around this week. Most notably, the report that Jacksonville made an effort to sign J.K. Dobbins in free agency, before he ultimately returned to Denver. A few takeaways.
Some of it is about Jacksonville. The Jaguars ultimately settled for Chris Rodriguez, but the fact that they tried to bring in Dobbins -- who's always been a main runner, rather than a No. 2 or change-of-pace type -- suggests they were looking for a lead runner, with Bhayshul Tuten in a secondary role. Rodriguez has been sidelined in camp and Tuten is drawing praise, so I'm still comfortable preferring Tuten, but the reports seem to indicate the Jaguars had doubts.
Denver's retaining Dobbins also becomes more interesting with the news this week that RJ Harvey is recovering from a torn labrum suffered in the AFC Championship Game. That hadn't been previously reported (not that I'd seen), but it highlights increased importance both for Dobbins, who we now know had at least one other suitor, and also fourth-rounder Jonah Coleman. Harvey might still be fine for training camp, but he could also be limited early on, an opportunity for Coleman to make his case for a role.
Dobbins has never been able to stay healthy, but he's been impressive on the field, including for Denver last year. The first half of the season, Denver averaged 134 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry. The second half of the season, after Dobbins got hurt, the Broncos averaged just 102 rushing yards and 3.8 per attempt. The twin declines were both among the biggest in the league from the first half to the second (table sorted by +/- change in rushing yards per game).
Table also shows team rushing rank in each half of the season; Denver went from 7th in the first half to 27th in the second half.
| TEAM RUSHING, 1ST HALF VERSUS 2ND HALF | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Y/G (1) | Rk (1) | Avg | Y/G (2) | Rk (2) | Avg | Yds (+/-) | Avg (+/-) |
| Miami | 97 | 25 | 4.4 | 146 | 4 | 5.0 | 48.9 | .53 |
| Baltimore | 136 | 6 | 5.2 | 175 | 1 | 5.3 | 39.8 | .07 |
| Seattle | 104 | 22 | 3.7 | 141 | 7 | 4.5 | 36.7 | .82 |
| New England | 112 | 17 | 3.9 | 148 | 3 | 5.1 | 35.2 | 1.23 |
| Cincinnati | 79 | 32 | 4.2 | 110 | 20 | 4.2 | 31.5 | -.03 |
| Tampa Bay | 98 | 24 | 3.8 | 129 | 11 | 4.3 | 31.0 | .49 |
| Pittsburgh | 87 | 30 | 3.8 | 118 | 17 | 4.8 | 30.3 | .99 |
| LA Rams | 112 | 18 | 4.1 | 140 | 8 | 5.1 | 27.8 | .98 |
| Tennessee | 81 | 31 | 4.0 | 107 | 24 | 4.4 | 26.0 | .41 |
| NY Giants | 118 | 14 | 4.2 | 142 | 6 | 4.4 | 23.9 | .27 |
| San Francisco | 97 | 26 | 3.5 | 118 | 16 | 4.1 | 20.8 | .55 |
| Atlanta | 117 | 15 | 4.4 | 134 | 9 | 4.5 | 17.0 | .14 |
| Minnesota | 100 | 23 | 4.4 | 116 | 18 | 4.6 | 15.9 | .18 |
| Cleveland | 90 | 28 | 3.8 | 104 | 26 | 4.0 | 14.2 | .27 |
| Green Bay | 113 | 16 | 4.0 | 126 | 13 | 4.3 | 13.1 | .33 |
| Dallas | 121 | 13 | 4.8 | 131 | 10 | 4.4 | 10.6 | -.37 |
| New Orleans | 90 | 27 | 3.8 | 100 | 28 | 3.6 | 10.1 | -.23 |
| Philadelphia | 112 | 19 | 4.1 | 122 | 14 | 4.2 | 10.0 | .12 |
| Houston | 109 | 21 | 4.1 | 109 | 22 | 3.8 | .1 | -.31 |
| Chicago | 145 | 2 | 4.9 | 144 | 5 | 4.8 | -1.0 | -.14 |
| Buffalo | 162 | 1 | 5.0 | 158 | 2 | 4.9 | -3.5 | -.16 |
| LA Chargers | 124 | 10 | 4.8 | 119 | 15 | 4.1 | -5.1 | -.71 |
| Detroit | 125 | 9 | 4.4 | 116 | 19 | 4.8 | -9.6 | .43 |
| Washington | 140 | 4 | 5.1 | 129 | 12 | 4.4 | -11.0 | -.71 |
| Indianapolis | 126 | 8 | 4.8 | 110 | 21 | 4.2 | -15.9 | -.65 |
| Jacksonville | 124 | 11 | 4.5 | 107 | 23 | 3.6 | -16.2 | -.87 |
| Las Vegas | 89 | 29 | 3.8 | 67 | 32 | 3.4 | -22.0 | -.42 |
| Kansas City | 121 | 12 | 4.5 | 90 | 29 | 3.9 | -31.1 | -.56 |
| Denver | 134 | 7 | 4.9 | 102 | 27 | 3.8 | -31.6 | -1.12 |
| Arizona | 112 | 20 | 4.4 | 77 | 31 | 4.3 | -34.7 | -.11 |
| NY Jets | 144 | 3 | 5.2 | 105 | 25 | 4.0 | -38.4 | -1.17 |
| Carolina | 140 | 5 | 4.7 | 90 | 30 | 3.7 | -49.9 | -.93 |
I'm not too concerned about Harvey, with training camp still a month away and the season almost three. But bringing back Dobbins, who was pretty good in this offense a year ago, and drafting Coleman suggests a big leap isn't coming for him. And I think Jacksonville's interest has to be viewed as a slight negative for Tuten.
As for Dobbins, I don't like his chances of staying healthy, but looks pretty certain he'll be opening as the lead back again, with Denver's other backs secondary options.
--Andy Richardson
