There's some positive talk going around about Adonai Mitchell. There's positive talk about everyone this time of year, but in Mitchell's case there's plenty of upside. The question is whether he'll take advantage.
The considerable negatives are going to last year's bottom-ranked passing game, but the Jets will probably be better this year. (As discussed elsewhere here, there's some concern about legal issues facing Geno Smith, but for the moment let's assume those go away.) New York's No. 2 after Garrett Wilson might well be first-rounder Omar Cooper, but Mitchell was a second-round pick just two years ago, so the draft capital isn't that dissimilar.
Mitchell has not, however, made the most of his opportunities in his two seasons in the league. He was seemingly a throw-in by the Colts in the Sauce Gardner trade; that's not inspiring. And a really low percentage of the passes thrown his way have actually been completed.
Poor quarterbacking doesn't help, but Mitchell has also dropped nearly 10 percent of his catchable targets his first two seasons. And he's not the only wide receiver who's had to deal with poor quarterbacks, but he's been the worst at turning balls thrown his way into receptions. By kind of a wide margin.
Over the past two years, 61 wide receivers have had at least 120 passes thrown their way. Mitchell has caught only 43 percent of them, last among that group. Next-worst is at 50 percent. The grisly numbers are below.
| WIDE RECEIVER CATCH RATES, 2024-2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Pct |
| Stefon Diggs, N.E. | 166 | 132 | 1,509 | 7 | 79.5 |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | 272 | 208 | 2,705 | 13 | 76.5 |
| Khalil Shakir, Buff. | 195 | 148 | 1,540 | 8 | 75.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 313 | 232 | 2,664 | 23 | 74.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 300 | 219 | 2,923 | 16 | 73.0 |
| DeMario Douglas, N.E. | 133 | 97 | 1,068 | 6 | 72.9 |
| DeVonta Smith, Phi. | 202 | 145 | 1,841 | 12 | 71.8 |
| Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 360 | 252 | 3,120 | 25 | 70.0 |
| Zay Flowers, Balt. | 234 | 160 | 2,270 | 9 | 68.4 |
| Deebo Samuel, Was. | 180 | 123 | 1,397 | 8 | 68.3 |
| Ladd McConkey, LAC | 218 | 148 | 1,938 | 13 | 67.9 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 177 | 120 | 1,678 | 16 | 67.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers, L.V.-Jac. | 239 | 162 | 1,862 | 7 | 67.8 |
| Michael Pittman, Ind. | 222 | 149 | 1,592 | 10 | 67.1 |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 152 | 102 | 1,224 | 7 | 67.1 |
| Cooper Kupp, Sea. | 170 | 114 | 1,303 | 8 | 67.1 |
| Josh Downs, Ind. | 195 | 130 | 1,369 | 9 | 66.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 183 | 122 | 1,654 | 8 | 66.7 |
| A.J. Brown, Phi. | 218 | 145 | 2,082 | 14 | 66.5 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 280 | 185 | 1,713 | 7 | 66.1 |
| Chris Olave, N.O. | 200 | 132 | 1,563 | 10 | 66.0 |
| DJ Moore, Chi. | 225 | 148 | 1,648 | 12 | 65.8 |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 269 | 176 | 2,271 | 9 | 65.4 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus, Chi. | 129 | 84 | 819 | 5 | 65.1 |
| Jauan Jennings, S.F. | 203 | 132 | 1,618 | 15 | 65.0 |
| Romeo Doubs, G.B. | 157 | 101 | 1,325 | 10 | 64.3 |
| Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 213 | 137 | 1,499 | 11 | 64.3 |
| Tee Higgins, Cin. | 207 | 132 | 1,757 | 21 | 63.8 |
| Jameson Williams, Det. | 193 | 123 | 2,118 | 14 | 63.7 |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | 219 | 139 | 2,123 | 13 | 63.5 |
| Michael Wilson, Ari. | 197 | 125 | 1,554 | 11 | 63.5 |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 295 | 187 | 2,581 | 12 | 63.4 |
| George Pickens, Dall. | 240 | 152 | 2,329 | 12 | 63.3 |
| Tyler Lockett, Ten.-L.V. | 129 | 81 | 891 | 3 | 62.8 |
| Drake London, Atl. | 270 | 168 | 2,190 | 16 | 62.2 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 243 | 151 | 1,521 | 11 | 62.1 |
| Malik Nabers, NYG | 205 | 127 | 1,475 | 9 | 62.0 |
| Parker Washington, Jac. | 146 | 90 | 1,237 | 8 | 61.6 |
| Quentin Johnston, LAC | 175 | 106 | 1,446 | 16 | 60.6 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 172 | 104 | 1,372 | 14 | 60.5 |
| DK Metcalf, Pitt. | 207 | 125 | 1,842 | 11 | 60.4 |
| Brian Thomas, Jac. | 224 | 135 | 1,989 | 12 | 60.3 |
| Tre Tucker, L.V. | 173 | 104 | 1,235 | 8 | 60.1 |
| Courtland Sutton, Den. | 259 | 155 | 2,098 | 15 | 59.8 |
| Rashid Shaheed, N.O.-Sea. | 133 | 79 | 1,036 | 5 | 59.4 |
| Troy Franklin, Den. | 157 | 93 | 972 | 8 | 59.2 |
| Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 171 | 101 | 1,170 | 7 | 59.1 |
| Jordan Addison, Min. | 178 | 105 | 1,485 | 12 | 59.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan, Car. | 122 | 70 | 1,014 | 7 | 57.4 |
| Davante Adams, LAR | 255 | 145 | 1,852 | 22 | 56.9 |
| Xavier Legette, Car. | 148 | 84 | 860 | 7 | 56.8 |
| Darius Slayton, NYG | 134 | 76 | 1,111 | 3 | 56.7 |
| Dontayvion Wicks, G.B. | 122 | 69 | 747 | 7 | 56.6 |
| Jerry Jeudy, Cle. | 251 | 140 | 1,831 | 6 | 55.8 |
| Alec Pierce, Ind. | 153 | 84 | 1,827 | 13 | 54.9 |
| Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 189 | 103 | 1,493 | 12 | 54.5 |
| Darnell Mooney, Atl. | 178 | 96 | 1,435 | 6 | 53.9 |
| Calvin Ridley, Ten. | 156 | 81 | 1,320 | 4 | 51.9 |
| Rome Odunze, Chi. | 191 | 98 | 1,395 | 9 | 51.3 |
| Emeka Egbuka, T.B. | 127 | 63 | 938 | 6 | 49.6 |
| Adonai Mitchell, Ind.-NYJ | 129 | 56 | 765 | 2 | 43.4 |
Say this for Mitchell though, he's not alone among early draft picks the past couple of years who fare poorly in this metric. Harrison, Odunze and Egbuka were all drafted earlier the last two years, and they're also down at the bottom of this table. All of those guys have been working with better quarterbacks, too.
This may be surprising, but I do consider Mitchell worth a late-round dice roll. There won't be great demand for him in drafts, for sure, and him starting out ahead of Cooper for the Jets seems reasonable (even if Cooper is the better dynasty choice). Expectations should be modest, but talent and opportunity count for a lot.
I don't know if it will happen for him, but there are worse late-round stabs. He's not the only highly selected wide receiver whose career is off to a rocky start.
--Andy Richardson
