Hold off on the Taysom Hill obituaries for now. His former coach says he’ll be bringing him in for a look.
The utility player will be 36 later this month, but Sean Payton told NFL Media that the Broncos have some interest.
If Hill signs with Denver, it would presumably be with the intention of using him some as a short-yardage and goal-line runner. He thrived at times in that role with the Saints, and the Broncos don’t have a good running back for those plays. RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins are both small, and Bo Nix is coming off a fractured ankle.
Hill ran for 13 touchdowns in his final 28 games with Payton in New Orleans. He’s run for 11 touchdowns in 37 games the last three years.
This may prove to be a nothingburger. Hill is right at the end of the road physically, and Nix is plenty mobile (assuming they aren’t worried about him re-injuring his ankle). Over the last two years, Nix has been a more effectively short-yardage runner than Hill, converting 22 of 26 carries when the team was looking to gain a yard in a key situation (third-and-one, fourth-and-done, or any play at the 1-yard line).
But if Hill is used extensively as a goal-line runner, he’ll likely be scoring most of the team’s goal-line touchdowns. In general, the odds are higher on those plays when using a quarterback rather than a running back.
Below, see the success rates of the 31 players who’ve logged at least 30 carries over the last three years for short-yardage running player. Eleven players have converted over 75 percent of such attempts, and all but three are quarterbacks.
Dobbins went only 3 of 6 on his “and one” carries last year, while Harvey went 8 of 10. Both are small backs. Over the previous two seasons, Javonte Williams went only 9 of 17 on those carries for the Broncos.
I’m not a big Hill fan. I don’t see the point. But if they sign him, I think he’ll be scoring some 1-yard TDs.
| "AND ONE" RUSHING (2023-) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| 1. | • Josh Allen, Buff. | 65 | 72 | 90.3% |
| 2. | • Daniel Jones, NYG-Ind. | 30 | 34 | 88.2% |
| 3. | • Russell Wilson, 3 tms | 28 | 32 | 87.5% |
| 4. | Kyren Williams, LAR | 51 | 63 | 81.0% |
| 5. | Kareem Hunt, Cle.-K.C. | 61 | 76 | 80.3% |
| 6. | • Jalen Hurts, Phi. | 81 | 101 | 80.2% |
| 7. | • Justin Herbert, LAC | 27 | 34 | 79.4% |
| 8. | • Taysom Hill, N.O. | 25 | 32 | 78.1% |
| 9. | • Justin Fields, 3 tms | 24 | 31 | 77.4% |
| 10. | • Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 27 | 35 | 77.1% |
| 11. | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 29 | 38 | 76.3% |
| 12. | Rachaad White, T.B. | 32 | 44 | 72.7% |
| 13. | Tony Pollard, Dal.-Ten. | 24 | 33 | 72.7% |
| 14. | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 26 | 36 | 72.2% |
| 15. | Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 26 | 36 | 72.2% |
| 16. | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 44 | 63 | 69.8% |
| 17. | David Montgomery, Det. | 33 | 48 | 68.8% |
| 18. | Derrick Henry, Ten.-Bal. | 39 | 57 | 68.4% |
| 19. | Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 34 | 51 | 66.7% |
| 20. | Brian Robinson, Was.-S.F. | 24 | 37 | 64.9% |
| 21. | Javonte Williams, Den.-Dal. | 22 | 34 | 64.7% |
| 22. | Breece Hall, NYJ | 20 | 31 | 64.5% |
| 23. | James Conner, Ari. | 20 | 31 | 64.5% |
| 24. | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 29 | 46 | 63.0% |
| 25. | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 27 | 43 | 62.8% |
| 26. | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 25 | 40 | 62.5% |
| 27. | Joe Mixon, Cin.-Hou. | 22 | 37 | 59.5% |
| 28. | Aaron Jones, G.B.-Min. | 19 | 32 | 59.4% |
| 29. | Josh Jacobs, L.V.-G.B. | 30 | 53 | 56.6% |
| 30. | Saquon Barkley, NYG-Phi. | 17 | 32 | 53.1% |
| 31. | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 16 | 34 | 47.1% |
If Hill signs with the Broncos, key will be how they decide to list him. If he’s listed as a tight end, that should make him eligible in most fantasy leagues at that position (even if his most impactful play comes when he’s filling in as a change-of-pace quarterback).
Hill at times was listed as a tight end by the Saints, but that was after Sean Payton left. (When Payton was there, Hill was a quarterback on the roster).
—Ian Allan
