Taking a step back and looking at the overall lay of the land, it seems harder this year to identify offenses that can simply be disregarded. I’m having a hard time settling on offenses I’m confident will suck.
Sure, there are lesser teams. The Cardinals and Raiders, for example, look certain to finish in last in their divisions. But both of those teams look like they might be sneaky decent in terms of putting up yards and points. The Cardinals, for example, have a credible pair of wide receivers, along with Trey McBride, Jeremiyah Love and some other backs. Jacoby Brissett, while limited, averaged a league-high 281 passing yards last year when he was starting.
With the Raiders, they’ve got Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers, and they added Klint Kubiak, Kirk Cousins, Tyler Linderbaum and Fernando Mendoza in the offseason. While they’re seemingly terrible at wide receiver, I think they might be OK with that quartet of Jalen Nailor, Jack Bech, Tre Tucker and Malik Benson.
So who’s awful? Some team, after all, will finish last in scoring and yards. And recent league history suggests that at least seven offenses will average fewer than 2 TDs. Since the move to a 17-game schedule, 44 teams have scored fewer than 34 touchdowns. That includes 7 last year, 13 in 2022, and 8 in each of the other three seasons. (In the chart below, I’ve got the 2025 teams tagged with black dots.)
| OFFENSES AVERAGING FEWER THAN 2 TDs (last 5 yrs) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| 2023 | NY Jets | 11 | 7 | 18 |
| 2023 | Carolina | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| 2021 | NY Giants | 15 | 8 | 23 |
| 2025 | • Tennessee | 15 | 9 | 24 |
| 2025 | • Las Vegas | 20 | 5 | 25 |
| 2023 | NY Giants | 15 | 10 | 25 |
| 2023 | New England | 16 | 9 | 25 |
| 2022 | Indianapolis | 17 | 8 | 25 |
| 2021 | Jacksonville | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| 2025 | • Cleveland | 16 | 10 | 26 |
| 2025 | • NY Jets | 15 | 11 | 26 |
| 2024 | Cleveland | 19 | 8 | 27 |
| 2022 | Houston | 20 | 7 | 27 |
| 2025 | • New Orleans | 19 | 9 | 28 |
| 2024 | NY Giants | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| 2022 | Pittsburgh | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| 2022 | NY Jets | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| 2024 | New England | 18 | 11 | 29 |
| 2024 | Dallas | 23 | 6 | 29 |
| 2024 | Las Vegas | 19 | 10 | 29 |
| 2023 | Pittsburgh | 13 | 16 | 29 |
| 2022 | Denver | 18 | 11 | 29 |
| 2021 | Houston | 21 | 8 | 29 |
| 2023 | Tennessee | 14 | 16 | 30 |
| 2021 | Chicago | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| 2023 | Atlanta | 17 | 14 | 31 |
| 2023 | Las Vegas | 20 | 11 | 31 |
| 2022 | New England | 19 | 12 | 31 |
| 2022 | LA Rams | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| 2022 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 5 | 31 |
| 2021 | Carolina | 14 | 17 | 31 |
| 2021 | Atlanta | 20 | 11 | 31 |
| 2024 | Jacksonville | 19 | 13 | 32 |
| 2022 | Carolina | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| 2022 | Tennessee | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| 2022 | Arizona | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| 2025 | • Carolina | 24 | 9 | 33 |
| 2025 | • Houston | 24 | 9 | 33 |
| 2025 | • Minnesota | 18 | 15 | 33 |
| 2024 | Tennessee | 22 | 11 | 33 |
| 2024 | Chicago | 20 | 13 | 33 |
| 2022 | Baltimore | 19 | 14 | 33 |
| 2022 | Washington | 24 | 9 | 33 |
| 2021 | Pittsburgh | 23 | 10 | 33 |
| 2021 | Miami | 21 | 12 | 33 |
Those numbers make the current Fantasy Index numbers look optimistic. We have no teams below the 34 touchdown mark. On our current board, four offenses come in just below 35 touchdowns – Cardinals, Browns, Jets, Titans – and another pair come in just below 36 touchdowns (Raiders, Dolphins). This is important, because those team projections feed the individual forecasts for the players on those rosters.
So, who’s really going to stink?
Miami, one might reasonably say. But its first-unit offense looked good in its brief appearance in the first week of the preseason. Malik Willis looks pretty good to me, and I would have no issues with selecting De’Von Achane. They’re short on pass catchers, so perhaps this is an offense that should be moved under 34 TDs, but they don’t look like a dumpster fire.
Tennessee looked awfully inept in its preseason debut. Cam Ward at San Francisco didn’t look like a guy who’s be stepping up his game. Unless they do something of note in their second preseason game, I think it’s time to move them below 34 touchdowns. So there’s one. The Titans scored only 24 touchdowns last year (with a different coaching staff).
Cleveland seems to have hit on a pair of rookie receivers, but with that crazy QB situation, I guess that’s an offense we should be moving south of 34 touchdowns. The Browns scored only 26 touchdowns last year. It’s a team that’s on the right path, but probably also time to move Shedeur Sanders and the boys into the sub-34 group.
The other offense that scored 26 touchdowns last year – the Jets – I think has a decent chance of reaching 34 touchdowns. With Geno Smith, I think the quarterback is better. They have an above-average offensive line and a nice pair of backs (with Braelon Allen behind Breece Hall). And I think they’re serviceable at wide receiver (Garrett Wilson is a solid headliner, and I’m not giving up on Adonai Mitchell – he looked fine catching a couple of early balls against the Steelers).
The current team numbers appear below, with the six offenses projected to finish below 36 touchdowns tagged with black dots. Numbers, of course, are constantly being adjusted, and there will be plenty of changes today, based on preseason developments.
| PROJECTED TOUCHDOWN TOTALS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Pass | Run | Total |
| Buffalo | 27.2 | 28.1 | 55.3 |
| LA Rams | 33.2 | 22.1 | 55.3 |
| Cincinnati | 34.9 | 14.5 | 49.3 |
| Jacksonville | 28.9 | 20.4 | 49.3 |
| Dallas | 29.8 | 18.7 | 48.5 |
| Detroit | 28.1 | 20.4 | 48.5 |
| San Francisco | 32.3 | 16.2 | 48.5 |
| Baltimore | 24.7 | 23.0 | 47.6 |
| Chicago | 27.2 | 20.4 | 47.6 |
| New England | 28.1 | 19.6 | 47.6 |
| Green Bay | 26.4 | 20.4 | 46.8 |
| Denver | 26.4 | 18.7 | 45.1 |
| Philadelphia | 25.5 | 19.6 | 45.1 |
| Kansas City | 28.9 | 15.3 | 44.2 |
| Seattle | 24.7 | 18.7 | 43.4 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.0 | 17.9 | 40.8 |
| Washington | 23.0 | 17.9 | 40.8 |
| Indianapolis | 21.3 | 19.6 | 40.8 |
| LA Chargers | 24.7 | 16.2 | 40.8 |
| NY Giants | 20.4 | 19.6 | 40.0 |
| Minnesota | 23.0 | 16.2 | 39.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.7 | 14.5 | 39.1 |
| New Orleans | 23.8 | 14.5 | 38.3 |
| Atlanta | 19.6 | 17.9 | 37.4 |
| Carolina | 22.1 | 15.3 | 37.4 |
| Houston | 22.1 | 15.3 | 37.4 |
| • Las Vegas | 20.4 | 15.3 | 35.7 |
| • Miami | 20.4 | 15.3 | 35.7 |
| • Arizona | 21.3 | 13.6 | 34.9 |
| • Cleveland | 19.6 | 15.3 | 34.9 |
| • NY Jets | 20.4 | 14.5 | 34.9 |
| • Tennessee | 20.4 | 14.5 | 34.9 |
—Ian Allan
