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Strength of schedule check-in

Schedule indicates Gibbs will outperform Robinson

For those mulling Bijan Robinson vs. Jahmyr Gibbs, one factor that can be considered is strength of schedule. Based on preseason expectations, the Lions are going to play a much easier schedule than the Falcons.

On the surface, you would think perhaps the opposite, with Detroit in the NFC North, where every team last year finished with a winning record. Atlanta, on the other hand, resides in the NFC South, where all four teams finished with losing records last year.

But if we take the over-under win totals for each team and merge them with the upcoming schedule, they project the Lions will play the league’s 2nd-easiest schedule, trailing only the Raiders. Only four teams, meanwhile, are expected to play harder schedules than the Falcons.

These numbers are dramatically different than those created when using last year’s win-loss records. Via those stats, Atlanta was projected to play the 4th-easiest schedule, tying with the Colts, with the Lions just behind them.

The way teams change, with new players, coaches and schemes, the numbers generated from over-under win totals seem a lot more likely to be accurate. So I will take this as another check in favor of Gibbs when comparing him against the other coveted running back in the draft.

The following chart shows the expected combined win-loss record of each team’s first 16 opponents. (With fantasy leagues almost always being completed before Week 18, I left those games out.)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (over-under totals)
TeamWinLossPct
Las Vegas123149.452
• Detroit124148.456
Baltimore129143.474
NY Jets129143.474
Cincinnati130142.478
Kansas City130142.478
Philadelphia132140.485
NY Giants133139.489
Indianapolis134138.493
Houston135137.496
Minnesota135137.496
New Orleans135137.496
San Francisco135137.496
Seattle135137.496
Green Bay136136.500
Tampa Bay136136.500
Denver137135.504
LA Rams137135.504
Pittsburgh137135.504
Washington137135.504
Cleveland138134.507
Dallas138134.507
New England138134.507
Buffalo139133.511
Chicago139133.511
Jacksonville140132.515
Tennessee140132.515
• Atlanta141131.518
Carolina144128.529
Arizona145127.533
Miami145127.533
LA Chargers146126.537

The chart is derived not from my own personal expectations for each team, but instead by the over-under numbers that you can currently find available.

OVER-UNDER TOTALS
TeamWins
Baltimore11.5
LA Rams11.5
Buffalo10.5
Cincinnati10.5
Detroit10.5
Kansas City10.5
New England10.5
Philadelphia10.5
Seattle10.5
Chicago9.5
Dallas9.5
Denver9.5
Green Bay9.5
Houston9.5
LA Chargers9.5
San Francisco9.5
Jacksonville8.5
Minnesota8.5
Pittsburgh8.5
Tampa Bay8.5
Atlanta7.5
Carolina7.5
Indianapolis7.5
New Orleans7.5
NY Giants7.5
Washington7.5
Tennessee6.5
Cleveland5.5
Las Vegas5.5
NY Jets5.5
Arizona3.5
Miami3.5

—Ian Allan

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