For those mulling Bijan Robinson vs. Jahmyr Gibbs, one factor that can be considered is strength of schedule. Based on preseason expectations, the Lions are going to play a much easier schedule than the Falcons.
On the surface, you would think perhaps the opposite, with Detroit in the NFC North, where every team last year finished with a winning record. Atlanta, on the other hand, resides in the NFC South, where all four teams finished with losing records last year.
But if we take the over-under win totals for each team and merge them with the upcoming schedule, they project the Lions will play the league’s 2nd-easiest schedule, trailing only the Raiders. Only four teams, meanwhile, are expected to play harder schedules than the Falcons.
These numbers are dramatically different than those created when using last year’s win-loss records. Via those stats, Atlanta was projected to play the 4th-easiest schedule, tying with the Colts, with the Lions just behind them.
The way teams change, with new players, coaches and schemes, the numbers generated from over-under win totals seem a lot more likely to be accurate. So I will take this as another check in favor of Gibbs when comparing him against the other coveted running back in the draft.
The following chart shows the expected combined win-loss record of each team’s first 16 opponents. (With fantasy leagues almost always being completed before Week 18, I left those games out.)
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (over-under totals) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Win | Loss | Pct |
| Las Vegas | 123 | 149 | .452 |
| • Detroit | 124 | 148 | .456 |
| Baltimore | 129 | 143 | .474 |
| NY Jets | 129 | 143 | .474 |
| Cincinnati | 130 | 142 | .478 |
| Kansas City | 130 | 142 | .478 |
| Philadelphia | 132 | 140 | .485 |
| NY Giants | 133 | 139 | .489 |
| Indianapolis | 134 | 138 | .493 |
| Houston | 135 | 137 | .496 |
| Minnesota | 135 | 137 | .496 |
| New Orleans | 135 | 137 | .496 |
| San Francisco | 135 | 137 | .496 |
| Seattle | 135 | 137 | .496 |
| Green Bay | 136 | 136 | .500 |
| Tampa Bay | 136 | 136 | .500 |
| Denver | 137 | 135 | .504 |
| LA Rams | 137 | 135 | .504 |
| Pittsburgh | 137 | 135 | .504 |
| Washington | 137 | 135 | .504 |
| Cleveland | 138 | 134 | .507 |
| Dallas | 138 | 134 | .507 |
| New England | 138 | 134 | .507 |
| Buffalo | 139 | 133 | .511 |
| Chicago | 139 | 133 | .511 |
| Jacksonville | 140 | 132 | .515 |
| Tennessee | 140 | 132 | .515 |
| • Atlanta | 141 | 131 | .518 |
| Carolina | 144 | 128 | .529 |
| Arizona | 145 | 127 | .533 |
| Miami | 145 | 127 | .533 |
| LA Chargers | 146 | 126 | .537 |
The chart is derived not from my own personal expectations for each team, but instead by the over-under numbers that you can currently find available.
| OVER-UNDER TOTALS | |
|---|---|
| Team | Wins |
| Baltimore | 11.5 |
| LA Rams | 11.5 |
| Buffalo | 10.5 |
| Cincinnati | 10.5 |
| Detroit | 10.5 |
| Kansas City | 10.5 |
| New England | 10.5 |
| Philadelphia | 10.5 |
| Seattle | 10.5 |
| Chicago | 9.5 |
| Dallas | 9.5 |
| Denver | 9.5 |
| Green Bay | 9.5 |
| Houston | 9.5 |
| LA Chargers | 9.5 |
| San Francisco | 9.5 |
| Jacksonville | 8.5 |
| Minnesota | 8.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 8.5 |
| Atlanta | 7.5 |
| Carolina | 7.5 |
| Indianapolis | 7.5 |
| New Orleans | 7.5 |
| NY Giants | 7.5 |
| Washington | 7.5 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 |
| Cleveland | 5.5 |
| Las Vegas | 5.5 |
| NY Jets | 5.5 |
| Arizona | 3.5 |
| Miami | 3.5 |
—Ian Allan

