Let’s not be too quick to dismiss the Rams as a serious contender. Their upcoming schedule suggests they’re about as likely as any to lead the league in scoring until Thanksgiving.
Los Angeles is entering the tomato can portion of its schedule, with its next five against the Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, Commanders and Cardinals. Those teams (counting Arizona twice) have a combine win-loss record of 6-18-1. That’s by far the worst in the league.
And the Rams in their next five will be facing defenses that currently are allowing an average of 29.1 points per game. That’s almost 4 more than any other team. (Honestly, the number is so high, I had to go back and double-check that a faulty number hadn’t slipped in somewhere.)
So this is not the time to be getting cold feet on the Rams. Instead, it looks like the get-right portion of their schedule. I expect they’ll be clicking off five straight wins, putting up good numbers, before hitting their bye week. (Then they’ll kick off the home stretch by hosting the Packers and Kansas City, and I see they’ve still got two against Seattle and a rematch with the 49ers.)
Two other teams in their next five will face opponents that (collectively) have won fewer than 40 percent of their games: Browns and Giants. The Packers, Vikings and Saints have the hardest upcoming schedules.
And if looking at points rather than wins, the Lions, Colts and Falcons have the hardest upcoming schedules (in their next five). Three other teams (besides the Rams) will play their next five against defenses currently allowing over 25 points per game: Eagles, Broncos and Vikings. (Minnesota, recall, showed up as ‘hard’ in the wins chart, but they’ve got a three-game string against the Lions, Bills and Packers, who’ve been involved in plenty of shootouts).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (next 5 G) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| LA Rams | 6 | 18 | 1 | .260 |
| Cleveland | 9 | 16 | 0 | .360 |
| NY Giants | 9 | 15 | 1 | .380 |
| Carolina | 10 | 15 | 0 | .400 |
| Chicago | 10 | 15 | 0 | .400 |
| Kansas City | 10 | 15 | 0 | .400 |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 15 | 0 | .400 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | 14 | 1 | .420 |
| Jacksonville | 10 | 14 | 1 | .420 |
| Indianapolis | 11 | 14 | 0 | .440 |
| New England | 11 | 14 | 0 | .440 |
| Dallas | 13 | 15 | 0 | .464 |
| Detroit | 12 | 13 | 0 | .480 |
| Houston | 12 | 12 | 1 | .500 |
| Philadelphia | 11 | 11 | 2 | .500 |
| Arizona | 12 | 11 | 0 | .522 |
| San Francisco | 13 | 11 | 1 | .540 |
| Tampa Bay | 13 | 11 | 0 | .542 |
| Baltimore | 14 | 11 | 0 | .560 |
| Buffalo | 14 | 11 | 0 | .560 |
| Miami | 14 | 11 | 0 | .560 |
| Tennessee | 14 | 11 | 0 | .560 |
| Denver | 13 | 10 | 0 | .565 |
| LA Chargers | 13 | 10 | 0 | .565 |
| Washington | 15 | 11 | 1 | .574 |
| NY Jets | 14 | 10 | 0 | .583 |
| Seattle | 14 | 10 | 0 | .583 |
| Atlanta | 16 | 11 | 0 | .593 |
| Las Vegas | 16 | 11 | 0 | .593 |
| New Orleans | 14 | 9 | 1 | .604 |
| Minnesota | 17 | 11 | 0 | .607 |
| Green Bay | 15 | 9 | 0 | .625 |
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 5 G) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Points |
| LA Rams | 29.1 |
| Philadelphia | 25.5 |
| Minnesota | 25.3 |
| Denver | 25.0 |
| Miami | 24.7 |
| Dallas | 24.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.5 |
| Cincinnati | 24.3 |
| Carolina | 24.1 |
| Cleveland | 24.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 24.0 |
| San Francisco | 23.9 |
| NY Giants | 23.8 |
| Arizona | 23.7 |
| Seattle | 23.7 |
| NY Jets | 23.6 |
| Chicago | 23.5 |
| Jacksonville | 23.4 |
| New England | 23.4 |
| Green Bay | 23.1 |
| Tennessee | 22.6 |
| Kansas City | 22.5 |
| Baltimore | 22.4 |
| New Orleans | 22.4 |
| Houston | 22.2 |
| Las Vegas | 22.2 |
| LA Chargers | 21.7 |
| Washington | 21.6 |
| Buffalo | 21.5 |
| Detroit | 20.7 |
| Indianapolis | 20.4 |
| Atlanta | 20.4 |
As long as we’ve got the numbers out, we can also look at the bigger-picture situation.
If we set aside Week 18 as meaningless (not used in most fantasy leagues, and with many NFL teams not using front-line players), the Jaguars, Bucs and Rams project to play the easiest remaining schedules. The Seahawks, Bills and Vikings project to play the hardest remaining schedules.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 6-17) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Jacksonville | 22 | 36 | 2 | .383 |
| Tampa Bay | 25 | 32 | 0 | .439 |
| LA Rams | 27 | 34 | 1 | .444 |
| Kansas City | 28 | 34 | 0 | .452 |
| Indianapolis | 27 | 32 | 1 | .458 |
| Dallas | 28 | 32 | 2 | .468 |
| NY Giants | 29 | 33 | 1 | .468 |
| New Orleans | 27 | 30 | 1 | .474 |
| Pittsburgh | 28 | 31 | 0 | .475 |
| Philadelphia | 28 | 31 | 3 | .476 |
| Denver | 28 | 30 | 0 | .483 |
| New England | 29 | 30 | 0 | .492 |
| Cleveland | 29 | 30 | 1 | .492 |
| Las Vegas | 30 | 31 | 0 | .492 |
| Washington | 30 | 31 | 1 | .492 |
| Carolina | 30 | 30 | 0 | .500 |
| Green Bay | 29 | 29 | 0 | .500 |
| Houston | 29 | 29 | 2 | .500 |
| San Francisco | 28 | 28 | 2 | .500 |
| Arizona | 30 | 29 | 1 | .508 |
| Baltimore | 30 | 29 | 0 | .508 |
| NY Jets | 30 | 29 | 0 | .508 |
| Cincinnati | 29 | 28 | 1 | .509 |
| Detroit | 31 | 28 | 1 | .525 |
| Tennessee | 31 | 28 | 1 | .525 |
| Atlanta | 32 | 28 | 1 | .533 |
| Chicago | 32 | 28 | 0 | .533 |
| LA Chargers | 32 | 28 | 0 | .533 |
| Miami | 32 | 28 | 0 | .533 |
| Minnesota | 33 | 28 | 1 | .540 |
| Buffalo | 32 | 27 | 0 | .542 |
| Seattle | 32 | 26 | 1 | .551 |
Using points allowed by defenses (and looking at those same 12 weeks), The Bucs, Rams and Eagles project to play the softest defenses for the duration of the season. The Lions, Colts and Panthers project to play the stingiest defenses for the duration.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Wks 6-17) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Points |
| Tampa Bay | 28.0 |
| LA Rams | 27.1 |
| Philadelphia | 27.1 |
| Green Bay | 26.9 |
| Minnesota | 26.8 |
| Cincinnati | 26.8 |
| Denver | 26.4 |
| NY Giants | 26.1 |
| Jacksonville | 26.1 |
| New Orleans | 26.0 |
| San Francisco | 26.0 |
| Cleveland | 25.9 |
| NY Jets | 25.9 |
| Tennessee | 25.7 |
| Arizona | 25.7 |
| Seattle | 25.7 |
| Chicago | 25.5 |
| Miami | 25.4 |
| Dallas | 25.2 |
| Atlanta | 25.2 |
| Las Vegas | 25.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 25.0 |
| Baltimore | 24.8 |
| New England | 24.6 |
| Houston | 24.3 |
| Washington | 23.9 |
| LA Chargers | 23.8 |
| Kansas City | 23.5 |
| Buffalo | 23.2 |
| Carolina | 22.9 |
| Indianapolis | 22.5 |
| Detroit | 22.2 |
—Ian Allan

