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To live and die with LA

Rams hitting easy portion of their schedule

Let’s not be too quick to dismiss the Rams as a serious contender. Their upcoming schedule suggests they’re about as likely as any to lead the league in scoring until Thanksgiving.

Los Angeles is entering the tomato can portion of its schedule, with its next five against the Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, Commanders and Cardinals. Those teams (counting Arizona twice) have a combine win-loss record of 6-18-1. That’s by far the worst in the league.

And the Rams in their next five will be facing defenses that currently are allowing an average of 29.1 points per game. That’s almost 4 more than any other team. (Honestly, the number is so high, I had to go back and double-check that a faulty number hadn’t slipped in somewhere.)

So this is not the time to be getting cold feet on the Rams. Instead, it looks like the get-right portion of their schedule. I expect they’ll be clicking off five straight wins, putting up good numbers, before hitting their bye week. (Then they’ll kick off the home stretch by hosting the Packers and Kansas City, and I see they’ve still got two against Seattle and a rematch with the 49ers.)

Two other teams in their next five will face opponents that (collectively) have won fewer than 40 percent of their games: Browns and Giants. The Packers, Vikings and Saints have the hardest upcoming schedules.

And if looking at points rather than wins, the Lions, Colts and Falcons have the hardest upcoming schedules (in their next five). Three other teams (besides the Rams) will play their next five against defenses currently allowing over 25 points per game: Eagles, Broncos and Vikings. (Minnesota, recall, showed up as ‘hard’ in the wins chart, but they’ve got a three-game string against the Lions, Bills and Packers, who’ve been involved in plenty of shootouts).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (next 5 G)
TeamWLTPct
LA Rams6181.260
Cleveland9160.360
NY Giants9151.380
Carolina10150.400
Chicago10150.400
Kansas City10150.400
Pittsburgh10150.400
Cincinnati10141.420
Jacksonville10141.420
Indianapolis11140.440
New England11140.440
Dallas13150.464
Detroit12130.480
Houston12121.500
Philadelphia11112.500
Arizona12110.522
San Francisco13111.540
Tampa Bay13110.542
Baltimore14110.560
Buffalo14110.560
Miami14110.560
Tennessee14110.560
Denver13100.565
LA Chargers13100.565
Washington15111.574
NY Jets14100.583
Seattle14100.583
Atlanta16110.593
Las Vegas16110.593
New Orleans1491.604
Minnesota17110.607
Green Bay1590.625
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 5 G)
TeamPoints
LA Rams29.1
Philadelphia25.5
Minnesota25.3
Denver25.0
Miami24.7
Dallas24.7
Tampa Bay24.5
Cincinnati24.3
Carolina24.1
Cleveland24.0
Pittsburgh24.0
San Francisco23.9
NY Giants23.8
Arizona23.7
Seattle23.7
NY Jets23.6
Chicago23.5
Jacksonville23.4
New England23.4
Green Bay23.1
Tennessee22.6
Kansas City22.5
Baltimore22.4
New Orleans22.4
Houston22.2
Las Vegas22.2
LA Chargers21.7
Washington21.6
Buffalo21.5
Detroit20.7
Indianapolis20.4
Atlanta20.4

As long as we’ve got the numbers out, we can also look at the bigger-picture situation.

If we set aside Week 18 as meaningless (not used in most fantasy leagues, and with many NFL teams not using front-line players), the Jaguars, Bucs and Rams project to play the easiest remaining schedules. The Seahawks, Bills and Vikings project to play the hardest remaining schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 6-17)
TeamWLTPct
Jacksonville22362.383
Tampa Bay25320.439
LA Rams27341.444
Kansas City28340.452
Indianapolis27321.458
Dallas28322.468
NY Giants29331.468
New Orleans27301.474
Pittsburgh28310.475
Philadelphia28313.476
Denver28300.483
New England29300.492
Cleveland29301.492
Las Vegas30310.492
Washington30311.492
Carolina30300.500
Green Bay29290.500
Houston29292.500
San Francisco28282.500
Arizona30291.508
Baltimore30290.508
NY Jets30290.508
Cincinnati29281.509
Detroit31281.525
Tennessee31281.525
Atlanta32281.533
Chicago32280.533
LA Chargers32280.533
Miami32280.533
Minnesota33281.540
Buffalo32270.542
Seattle32261.551

Using points allowed by defenses (and looking at those same 12 weeks), The Bucs, Rams and Eagles project to play the softest defenses for the duration of the season. The Lions, Colts and Panthers project to play the stingiest defenses for the duration.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Wks 6-17)
TeamPoints
Tampa Bay28.0
LA Rams27.1
Philadelphia27.1
Green Bay26.9
Minnesota26.8
Cincinnati26.8
Denver26.4
NY Giants26.1
Jacksonville26.1
New Orleans26.0
San Francisco26.0
Cleveland25.9
NY Jets25.9
Tennessee25.7
Arizona25.7
Seattle25.7
Chicago25.5
Miami25.4
Dallas25.2
Atlanta25.2
Las Vegas25.2
Pittsburgh25.0
Baltimore24.8
New England24.6
Houston24.3
Washington23.9
LA Chargers23.8
Kansas City23.5
Buffalo23.2
Carolina22.9
Indianapolis22.5
Detroit22.2

—Ian Allan

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