The Giants, Vikings and Kansas City have been three of the season’s biggest surprises. All are leading their divisions. But all have benefitted from playing easy schedules.
In the case of the Giants, their opponents have gone a combined 12-29-0 in their other games, making their schedule by far the easiest in the league. So far. Kansas City’s and Minnesota’s opponents have also won fewer than 40 percent of their games, and that’s a real thing. KC didn’t look so super when asked to play at Seattle on Sunday night.
The list so far appears below. Aand with each team, I’m removing their own games (Kansas City’s opponents are a combined 15-25 – 1-5 against KC, and 14-20 against the rest of the league).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 1-7) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| NY Giants | 12 | 29 | 0 | .302 |
| Kansas City | 14 | 20 | 0 | .375 |
| Minnesota | 16 | 19 | 0 | .390 |
| Buffalo | 15 | 19 | 0 | .400 |
| San Francisco | 18 | 21 | 1 | .415 |
| Baltimore | 17 | 24 | 0 | .417 |
| Dallas | 15 | 24 | 2 | .417 |
| Tennessee | 15 | 26 | 1 | .439 |
| Las Vegas | 16 | 22 | 0 | .444 |
| Philadelphia | 15 | 23 | 1 | .446 |
| Cleveland | 19 | 21 | 0 | .447 |
| Cincinnati | 16 | 18 | 0 | .450 |
| Detroit | 16 | 18 | 0 | .450 |
| Pittsburgh | 20 | 21 | 0 | .458 |
| Chicago | 22 | 18 | 0 | .511 |
| NY Jets | 19 | 21 | 0 | .511 |
| Houston | 18 | 20 | 1 | .511 |
| Seattle | 20 | 18 | 1 | .511 |
| Washington | 17 | 19 | 0 | .512 |
| Carolina | 18 | 17 | 0 | .512 |
| Denver | 22 | 17 | 0 | .522 |
| Green Bay | 22 | 18 | 0 | .532 |
| Indianapolis | 19 | 19 | 1 | .533 |
| Jacksonville | 20 | 15 | 0 | .537 |
| Arizona | 21 | 18 | 1 | .564 |
| LA Rams | 23 | 17 | 1 | .573 |
| New England | 25 | 15 | 0 | .596 |
| LA Chargers | 18 | 16 | 0 | .600 |
| Atlanta | 25 | 16 | 0 | .604 |
| New Orleans | 24 | 15 | 1 | .628 |
| Tampa Bay | 25 | 14 | 0 | .652 |
| Miami | 21 | 12 | 0 | .667 |
I haven’t done anything with strength of schedule for a few weeks, so let me trot out a few other lists using those numbers. Folks, after all, are more interested in what’s coming up, rather than what’s already happened.
The numbers suggest that if we look at the next five games for each team, the Jaguars, Bengals and Cowboys will be playing the easiest schedules. The Vikings, on the other hand, will go from playing one of the easiest schedules (in Weeks 1-7) to one of the hardest, with their next five games against teams that are a combined 22-11-0.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (next 5 G) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Jacksonville | 12 | 22 | 1 | .357 |
| Cincinnati | 12 | 21 | 1 | .368 |
| Dallas | 13 | 22 | 0 | .371 |
| LA Rams | 12 | 19 | 1 | .391 |
| LA Chargers | 15 | 20 | 0 | .429 |
| Indianapolis | 14 | 18 | 1 | .439 |
| Baltimore | 14 | 17 | 0 | .452 |
| New England | 14 | 17 | 0 | .452 |
| NY Jets | 14 | 17 | 0 | .452 |
| Washington | 15 | 18 | 1 | .456 |
| Tampa Bay | 15 | 17 | 0 | .469 |
| NY Giants | 15 | 17 | 1 | .470 |
| Cleveland | 16 | 18 | 0 | .471 |
| Houston | 16 | 18 | 0 | .471 |
| Philadelphia | 15 | 17 | 2 | .471 |
| Chicago | 16 | 17 | 0 | .485 |
| Carolina | 17 | 18 | 0 | .486 |
| Arizona | 16 | 16 | 1 | .500 |
| Kansas City | 17 | 17 | 0 | .500 |
| Miami | 17 | 16 | 0 | .515 |
| Pittsburgh | 18 | 16 | 0 | .529 |
| Denver | 17 | 15 | 0 | .531 |
| Tennessee | 16 | 14 | 1 | .532 |
| Seattle | 19 | 16 | 0 | .543 |
| Detroit | 18 | 15 | 0 | .545 |
| Green Bay | 18 | 15 | 0 | .545 |
| Buffalo | 18 | 14 | 0 | .563 |
| San Francisco | 20 | 13 | 1 | .603 |
| Las Vegas | 22 | 13 | 0 | .629 |
| New Orleans | 21 | 12 | 0 | .636 |
| Minnesota | 22 | 11 | 0 | .667 |
| Atlanta | 21 | 10 | 0 | .677 |
Some prefer to look not at wins but at points. Fantasy football, after all, is based more on scoring than wins and loss. Strictly on points, the Patriots, Eagles and Rams will be seeing the softest defenses in the next month of the season. Two of the league’s best offenses (Bills, Lions) will see the stingiest defenses in the next stretch of the season. Perhaps bad news for those holding the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Josh Allen, James Cook and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 5 G) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Avg |
| New England | 26.5 |
| Philadelphia | 26.5 |
| LA Rams | 25.9 |
| Cincinnati | 25.6 |
| Kansas City | 25.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 25.3 |
| NY Jets | 25.0 |
| Miami | 24.7 |
| Minnesota | 24.6 |
| Dallas | 24.6 |
| Seattle | 24.5 |
| Carolina | 24.4 |
| Washington | 24.3 |
| Houston | 24.3 |
| Arizona | 24.3 |
| Cleveland | 24.2 |
| Denver | 24.0 |
| Chicago | 23.6 |
| Baltimore | 23.5 |
| Jacksonville | 23.2 |
| Green Bay | 22.6 |
| New Orleans | 22.6 |
| NY Giants | 22.5 |
| Indianapolis | 22.2 |
| Pittsburgh | 22.2 |
| LA Chargers | 21.6 |
| San Francisco | 21.5 |
| Tennessee | 21.3 |
| Atlanta | 21.3 |
| Las Vegas | 20.7 |
| Buffalo | 20.3 |
| Detroit | 20.1 |
If we’re looking at just rushing stats, the current numbers suggest three of the very best backs – Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Cook -- will have the least favorable schedules for the next month of the season.
On this chart below, you’re seeing rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and fantasy points (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (next 5 G) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Pts |
| Washington | 125.8 | .85 | 17.7 |
| New England | 111.4 | 1.09 | 17.7 |
| Jacksonville | 120.7 | .89 | 17.4 |
| Carolina | 113.6 | 1.00 | 17.4 |
| Cleveland | 116.3 | .94 | 17.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 107.3 | 1.08 | 17.2 |
| Philadelphia | 122.0 | .82 | 17.1 |
| Green Bay | 115.1 | .90 | 16.9 |
| LA Rams | 109.7 | 1.00 | 16.9 |
| NY Jets | 111.7 | .93 | 16.8 |
| New Orleans | 114.5 | .86 | 16.6 |
| Cincinnati | 109.5 | .94 | 16.6 |
| San Francisco | 120.5 | .75 | 16.6 |
| Dallas | 115.7 | .83 | 16.5 |
| Seattle | 117.1 | .80 | 16.5 |
| Baltimore | 102.4 | 1.04 | 16.5 |
| Kansas City | 113.6 | .83 | 16.3 |
| Denver | 113.8 | .81 | 16.3 |
| Houston | 112.5 | .81 | 16.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 116.2 | .74 | 16.0 |
| Miami | 109.1 | .83 | 15.9 |
| Indianapolis | 110.2 | .78 | 15.7 |
| Arizona | 112.4 | .70 | 15.4 |
| Minnesota | 99.1 | .91 | 15.4 |
| Tennessee | 103.5 | .80 | 15.2 |
| NY Giants | 101.6 | .79 | 14.9 |
| LA Chargers | 105.1 | .71 | 14.8 |
| Chicago | 97.7 | .82 | 14.7 |
| Las Vegas | 112.3 | .51 | 14.3 |
| Buffalo | 101.9 | .61 | 13.9 |
| Atlanta | 96.2 | .59 | 13.2 |
| Detroit | 91.0 | .54 | 12.4 |
If we look at the same stats for passing, the numbers suggest Josh Allen and Jordan Love will tend to face the most rugged defenses for the next month. Kyler Murray, Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, look like QBs who could benefit from schedules in the near future.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (next 5 G) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
| Minnesota | 264.7 | 1.65 | 36.4 |
| Miami | 258.0 | 1.71 | 36.1 |
| New England | 254.3 | 1.77 | 36.0 |
| Kansas City | 249.3 | 1.70 | 35.1 |
| Tennessee | 263.6 | 1.45 | 35.0 |
| Baltimore | 259.9 | 1.45 | 34.7 |
| Philadelphia | 234.7 | 1.79 | 34.2 |
| NY Giants | 254.2 | 1.45 | 34.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 254.2 | 1.44 | 34.1 |
| NY Jets | 243.7 | 1.60 | 34.0 |
| Chicago | 251.0 | 1.47 | 33.9 |
| Cincinnati | 250.0 | 1.41 | 33.5 |
| Seattle | 238.7 | 1.60 | 33.5 |
| Indianapolis | 242.0 | 1.54 | 33.5 |
| Cleveland | 248.2 | 1.28 | 32.5 |
| LA Rams | 232.9 | 1.52 | 32.4 |
| Dallas | 240.5 | 1.34 | 32.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 244.1 | 1.20 | 31.6 |
| Atlanta | 244.7 | 1.12 | 31.2 |
| Washington | 223.4 | 1.42 | 30.9 |
| Denver | 232.5 | 1.24 | 30.7 |
| New Orleans | 229.3 | 1.14 | 29.8 |
| Carolina | 231.7 | 1.09 | 29.7 |
| Arizona | 212.4 | 1.40 | 29.7 |
| Houston | 226.3 | 1.15 | 29.5 |
| Detroit | 222.9 | 1.18 | 29.4 |
| Jacksonville | 226.8 | 1.11 | 29.4 |
| San Francisco | 208.4 | 1.36 | 29.0 |
| LA Chargers | 218.7 | 1.11 | 28.6 |
| Las Vegas | 208.4 | 1.20 | 28.0 |
| Green Bay | 217.9 | 1.01 | 27.9 |
| Buffalo | 214.6 | 1.00 | 27.5 |
Finally, if we take a bigger-picture view, the numbers suggest the Jaguars are the most notable team that should be helped along by schedule for the duration, with their next nine games against teams that are currently 27-35-1. (Jacksonville still has four games left against the Colts and Titans, which is about as good as it gets).
The seven hardest remaining schedules all belong to playoff hopefuls: Bills, Vikings, Patriots, Kansas City, Panthers, Falcons and Lions.
On this final chart, you’re seeing the next nine games for each team. I’ve left out Week 18 for everybody (those games aren’t meaningful for our purposes). With some teams having played byes, you’re seeing Weeks 8-16 for some teams, and Weeks 8-17 for others.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Next 9 G) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Arizona | 25 | 35 | 1 | .418 |
| LA Chargers | 27 | 35 | 0 | .435 |
| Jacksonville | 27 | 35 | 1 | .437 |
| Indianapolis | 26 | 33 | 1 | .442 |
| Tampa Bay | 27 | 33 | 0 | .450 |
| Washington | 27 | 33 | 1 | .451 |
| Cincinnati | 27 | 32 | 1 | .458 |
| Houston | 27 | 32 | 1 | .458 |
| LA Rams | 27 | 32 | 1 | .458 |
| Dallas | 28 | 33 | 1 | .460 |
| Cleveland | 29 | 32 | 1 | .476 |
| Las Vegas | 30 | 32 | 0 | .484 |
| Philadelphia | 29 | 31 | 2 | .484 |
| Pittsburgh | 30 | 30 | 0 | .500 |
| Seattle | 31 | 30 | 1 | .508 |
| San Francisco | 30 | 29 | 1 | .508 |
| Miami | 31 | 29 | 0 | .517 |
| New Orleans | 31 | 29 | 0 | .517 |
| Baltimore | 30 | 28 | 0 | .517 |
| Chicago | 30 | 28 | 0 | .517 |
| NY Giants | 31 | 28 | 1 | .525 |
| Denver | 31 | 28 | 0 | .525 |
| Green Bay | 31 | 28 | 0 | .525 |
| Tennessee | 30 | 27 | 1 | .526 |
| NY Jets | 31 | 27 | 0 | .534 |
| Detroit | 32 | 27 | 1 | .542 |
| Atlanta | 31 | 26 | 1 | .543 |
| Carolina | 34 | 27 | 0 | .557 |
| Kansas City | 34 | 27 | 0 | .557 |
| New England | 32 | 25 | 0 | .561 |
| Minnesota | 34 | 23 | 1 | .595 |
| Buffalo | 36 | 24 | 0 | .600 |
—Ian Allan

