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Strength of schedule grab bag

Giants have played the easiest schedule so far

The Giants, Vikings and Kansas City have been three of the season’s biggest surprises. All are leading their divisions. But all have benefitted from playing easy schedules.

In the case of the Giants, their opponents have gone a combined 12-29-0 in their other games, making their schedule by far the easiest in the league. So far. Kansas City’s and Minnesota’s opponents have also won fewer than 40 percent of their games, and that’s a real thing. KC didn’t look so super when asked to play at Seattle on Sunday night.

The list so far appears below. Aand with each team, I’m removing their own games (Kansas City’s opponents are a combined 15-25 – 1-5 against KC, and 14-20 against the rest of the league).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 1-7)
TeamWLTPct
NY Giants12290.302
Kansas City14200.375
Minnesota16190.390
Buffalo15190.400
San Francisco18211.415
Baltimore17240.417
Dallas15242.417
Tennessee15261.439
Las Vegas16220.444
Philadelphia15231.446
Cleveland19210.447
Cincinnati16180.450
Detroit16180.450
Pittsburgh20210.458
Chicago22180.511
NY Jets19210.511
Houston18201.511
Seattle20181.511
Washington17190.512
Carolina18170.512
Denver22170.522
Green Bay22180.532
Indianapolis19191.533
Jacksonville20150.537
Arizona21181.564
LA Rams23171.573
New England25150.596
LA Chargers18160.600
Atlanta25160.604
New Orleans24151.628
Tampa Bay25140.652
Miami21120.667

I haven’t done anything with strength of schedule for a few weeks, so let me trot out a few other lists using those numbers. Folks, after all, are more interested in what’s coming up, rather than what’s already happened.

The numbers suggest that if we look at the next five games for each team, the Jaguars, Bengals and Cowboys will be playing the easiest schedules. The Vikings, on the other hand, will go from playing one of the easiest schedules (in Weeks 1-7) to one of the hardest, with their next five games against teams that are a combined 22-11-0.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (next 5 G)
TeamWLTPct
Jacksonville12221.357
Cincinnati12211.368
Dallas13220.371
LA Rams12191.391
LA Chargers15200.429
Indianapolis14181.439
Baltimore14170.452
New England14170.452
NY Jets14170.452
Washington15181.456
Tampa Bay15170.469
NY Giants15171.470
Cleveland16180.471
Houston16180.471
Philadelphia15172.471
Chicago16170.485
Carolina17180.486
Arizona16161.500
Kansas City17170.500
Miami17160.515
Pittsburgh18160.529
Denver17150.531
Tennessee16141.532
Seattle19160.543
Detroit18150.545
Green Bay18150.545
Buffalo18140.563
San Francisco20131.603
Las Vegas22130.629
New Orleans21120.636
Minnesota22110.667
Atlanta21100.677

Some prefer to look not at wins but at points. Fantasy football, after all, is based more on scoring than wins and loss. Strictly on points, the Patriots, Eagles and Rams will be seeing the softest defenses in the next month of the season. Two of the league’s best offenses (Bills, Lions) will see the stingiest defenses in the next stretch of the season. Perhaps bad news for those holding the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Josh Allen, James Cook and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 5 G)
TeamAvg
New England26.5
Philadelphia26.5
LA Rams25.9
Cincinnati25.6
Kansas City25.3
Tampa Bay25.3
NY Jets25.0
Miami24.7
Minnesota24.6
Dallas24.6
Seattle24.5
Carolina24.4
Washington24.3
Houston24.3
Arizona24.3
Cleveland24.2
Denver24.0
Chicago23.6
Baltimore23.5
Jacksonville23.2
Green Bay22.6
New Orleans22.6
NY Giants22.5
Indianapolis22.2
Pittsburgh22.2
LA Chargers21.6
San Francisco21.5
Tennessee21.3
Atlanta21.3
Las Vegas20.7
Buffalo20.3
Detroit20.1

If we’re looking at just rushing stats, the current numbers suggest three of the very best backs – Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Cook -- will have the least favorable schedules for the next month of the season.

On this chart below, you’re seeing rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and fantasy points (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (next 5 G)
TeamYardsTDRPts
Washington125.8.8517.7
New England111.41.0917.7
Jacksonville120.7.8917.4
Carolina113.61.0017.4
Cleveland116.3.9417.3
Tampa Bay107.31.0817.2
Philadelphia122.0.8217.1
Green Bay115.1.9016.9
LA Rams109.71.0016.9
NY Jets111.7.9316.8
New Orleans114.5.8616.6
Cincinnati109.5.9416.6
San Francisco120.5.7516.6
Dallas115.7.8316.5
Seattle117.1.8016.5
Baltimore102.41.0416.5
Kansas City113.6.8316.3
Denver113.8.8116.3
Houston112.5.8116.1
Pittsburgh116.2.7416.0
Miami109.1.8315.9
Indianapolis110.2.7815.7
Arizona112.4.7015.4
Minnesota99.1.9115.4
Tennessee103.5.8015.2
NY Giants101.6.7914.9
LA Chargers105.1.7114.8
Chicago97.7.8214.7
Las Vegas112.3.5114.3
Buffalo101.9.6113.9
Atlanta96.2.5913.2
Detroit91.0.5412.4

If we look at the same stats for passing, the numbers suggest Josh Allen and Jordan Love will tend to face the most rugged defenses for the next month. Kyler Murray, Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, look like QBs who could benefit from schedules in the near future.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (next 5 G)
TeamYardsTDPPts
Minnesota264.71.6536.4
Miami258.01.7136.1
New England254.31.7736.0
Kansas City249.31.7035.1
Tennessee263.61.4535.0
Baltimore259.91.4534.7
Philadelphia234.71.7934.2
NY Giants254.21.4534.1
Tampa Bay254.21.4434.1
NY Jets243.71.6034.0
Chicago251.01.4733.9
Cincinnati250.01.4133.5
Seattle238.71.6033.5
Indianapolis242.01.5433.5
Cleveland248.21.2832.5
LA Rams232.91.5232.4
Dallas240.51.3432.1
Pittsburgh244.11.2031.6
Atlanta244.71.1231.2
Washington223.41.4230.9
Denver232.51.2430.7
New Orleans229.31.1429.8
Carolina231.71.0929.7
Arizona212.41.4029.7
Houston226.31.1529.5
Detroit222.91.1829.4
Jacksonville226.81.1129.4
San Francisco208.41.3629.0
LA Chargers218.71.1128.6
Las Vegas208.41.2028.0
Green Bay217.91.0127.9
Buffalo214.61.0027.5

Finally, if we take a bigger-picture view, the numbers suggest the Jaguars are the most notable team that should be helped along by schedule for the duration, with their next nine games against teams that are currently 27-35-1. (Jacksonville still has four games left against the Colts and Titans, which is about as good as it gets).

The seven hardest remaining schedules all belong to playoff hopefuls: Bills, Vikings, Patriots, Kansas City, Panthers, Falcons and Lions.

On this final chart, you’re seeing the next nine games for each team. I’ve left out Week 18 for everybody (those games aren’t meaningful for our purposes). With some teams having played byes, you’re seeing Weeks 8-16 for some teams, and Weeks 8-17 for others.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Next 9 G)
TeamWLTPct
Arizona25351.418
LA Chargers27350.435
Jacksonville27351.437
Indianapolis26331.442
Tampa Bay27330.450
Washington27331.451
Cincinnati27321.458
Houston27321.458
LA Rams27321.458
Dallas28331.460
Cleveland29321.476
Las Vegas30320.484
Philadelphia29312.484
Pittsburgh30300.500
Seattle31301.508
San Francisco30291.508
Miami31290.517
New Orleans31290.517
Baltimore30280.517
Chicago30280.517
NY Giants31281.525
Denver31280.525
Green Bay31280.525
Tennessee30271.526
NY Jets31270.534
Detroit32271.542
Atlanta31261.543
Carolina34270.557
Kansas City34270.557
New England32250.561
Minnesota34231.595
Buffalo36240.600

—Ian Allan

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