The first weekend of October has come and gone and with it went the fourth Sunday of the NFL’s regular season. Six of the eight games in the 1 pm ET window were decided by six points or less and a seventh was a one-score game before a defensive touchdown. Three of those games were decided by a winning score in the final two minutes of regulation. The 4 pm ET window had three of four games decided by one score and then the primetime tilt was a six-point margin of victory.
All told, counting Thursday's contest, we had another 11 games decided by seven points or less in week 4. Let’s take a look at what went down Sunday.
Indianapolis at Washington (in London): The day started off with a 9:30 am ET start with the interconference tilt in London. Indianapolis won their second straight game by taking advantage of a Commanders team that was down to their third-string quarterback before the first quarter was over. Jonathan Taylor finished with 20 carries for 95 yards and two scores. Daniel Jones was mediocre, throwing for just 143 yards with a pick and a lost fumble. He did score on a four-yard run. Marcus Mariota suffered an aggravation of his MCL sprain. If he can’t go and Jayden Daniels remains out next week, the Commanders would turn to Athan Kaliakmanis (15 of 33, 186 yards, TD, iNT) against the Giants. Will Austin Ekeler supplant Jacory Croskey-Merritt for the #1 RB role?
New England at Buffalo: The Patriots’ offense finally broke out and turned in a good offensive showing. Drake Maye still wasn’t great, fumbling three times (losing one) and throwing an interception. Still, with the game hanging in the balance, he threw the winning touchdown pass to Efton Chism III with 1:50 remaining. Josh Allen tried to get greedy on the ensuing possession and was picked with just over a minute to go. On the plus side, Keon Coleman caught six balls for 116 yards and a score in one of his best games as a pro. Both teams had injury issues to watch at the receiver spot. Mack Hollins went down for New England while DJ Moore suffered a shoulder injury. Allen did break a tie with Hall of Famers Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed for the most touchdowns in Bills history as he scored his 88th touchdown (86 rushing, two receiving) in the loss.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati: In a game that was a defensive slugfest and was full of bend but don’t break defense, Jacksonville made the clutch plays in crunch time to secure the victory. The Jaguars overcame 13 penalties for 125 yards in the contest. Jacksonville didn’t turn the ball over while recording a pair of takeaways in the game. That included an interception at their own 10-yard line. On the Bengals’ final drive, they had a 4th and 10 at the Jacksonville 21-yard line only to have Chase Brown come up a yard short and Jacksonville ran out the clock. Joe Burrow had a massive game, throwing for 428 yards with a score and two picks while adding a rushing score. Brown was limited to nine carries for 10 yards. Ja’Marr Chase was knocked out with a concussion. If he’s out, Tee Higgins (11 grabs, 157 yards), Brown (11 catches, 71 yards) and tight end Mike Gesicki will be looked at to step up. Dohnte Meyers caught seven balls for 82 after being pressed into action with Andrei Iosivas and Colbie Young missing. If Chase AND Higgins (adductor) are missing? Then it gets ugly.
New York Jets at Chicago: I guess if you’re looking for a moral victory for the Jets, Minkah Fitzpatrick got the Jets’ first interception in 21 games. That wasn’t enough to make up for a defense that couldn’t get off the field and an offense that couldn’t do enough to keep them in the game. New York let Chicago pound the rock 54 times for 232 yards in the game. The Jets were trounced 492-157 in total offense, 34-7 in first downs and dominated in time of possession by a 42:45 to 17:15 margin in the contest. The Bears have won with three different starting quarterbacks already this season. Ben Johnson has to have confidence knowing that it doesn’t matter if it’s Caleb Williams, Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent running the offense. Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift provide a 1-2 punch in the ground game. The Jets hope to get Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell back sooner rather than later.
Arizona at New York Giants: This was another early window game that, though the final score doesn’t look it, went to the wire. Arizona led 14-3 after one quarter, trailed 19-17 at the half and the teams traded the lead again in the third quarter. The Cardinals seemed poised to go for the go-ahead score in the dying seconds but Jacoby Brissett threw a 98-yard pick six on the final play of the game to seal the loss. Brissett threw three picks in the contest. Jameis Winston was his usual roller coaster self, going 18 of 29 for 250 yards with three touchdowns and two picks. Malik Nabers (six catches, 112 yards, TD) and Isaiah Likely (seven grabs, 66 yards) are far and away the top two options for the Giants in the passing game. The good news for Marvin Harrison Jr.? He caught a TD pass less than four minutes into the game! The bad news? He didn’t catch anything else the rest of the game. He’s clearly no better than the #3 or 4 option for Arizona behind Michael Wilson, Trey McBride and perhaps Kendrick Bourne? Could a change of scenery be in the mix?
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia: When it mattered the most, the Rams dug deep and scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes to win on the road. It wasn’t the prettiest of games as Matthew Stafford threw a pair of picks that set up the Eagles in plus territory. However, the Rams’ defense stepped up and stifled the Eagles’ offense. Jalen Hurts didn’t have DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert or Lane Johnson. They lost Saquon Barkley in the opening quarter to a hamstring injury. Still, 12 of 27 passing for 93 yards isn’t a great stat line. Hurts was sacked four times and the Eagles were zero of 12 on third down. Puka Nacua returned to the mix and caught nine balls for 125 yards. Big showing for Kyren Williams, who had 16 carries for 80 yards and two scores while adding 10 catches for 67 yards out of the backfield. That gave him 26 touches in the game compared to Blake Corum’s six.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay: Green Bay fans are happy to get a win but let’s be honest. This was not the kind of “we’re back” showing that anyone hangs their hat on as they struggled to beat a 0-3 Bucs team playing an undrafted rookie free agent quarterback in his first career start. The Packers run game “racked up” 86 yards but averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. Throw out the 31-yard run by Kaleb Johnson and a 27-yarder by Chris Brooks and Green Bay’s other 23 carries totaled a measly 28 yards. MarShawn Lloyd had 12 touches (seven carries, five catches) to Johnson’s eight and Brooks’ five. Tucker Kraft had six catches for 42 yards and a score but the duo of Christian Watson (three catches, 47 yards) and Matthew Golden (three catches, 21 yards, TD) were held in check. Jalon Daniels made some plays with his legs but turned the ball over twice on interceptions. He did get Kenneth Gainwell involved though, something that was missing the first three weeks.
Tennessee at Baltimore: The Titans dropped to 6-32 since Derrick Henry left town though they showed fight in this contest. Tennessee was down 24-7 at the half but clamped down on the Ravens in the second half. Henry was held in check for the most part, finishing with 23 carries for 73 yards and a score. Lamar Jackson had a big first half but didn’t play in the second half after suffering an ankle injury. That’s something that bears monitoring during the week. Zay Flowers had another big outing for the Ravens as well. For Tennessee, Carnell Tate had his signature game as a pro, catching nine balls for 145 yards. If he continues to develop, the Titans have their #1 target of the future. Cam Ward had his best outing of the year in a losing effort. Baby steps but you have to take the moral victory where you can get it right now.
Dallas at Houston: The battle of the Lone Star State went down to the wire. In a game that had three lead changes in the fourth quarter, the Cowboys got the decisive score with 40 seconds to play. There were video game numbers on both sides. Both quarterbacks cracked the 300-yard passing mark. CeeDee Lamb hauled in 17 balls for 189 yards and a score while being targeted a massive 21 times. Javonte Williams had a trio of rushing scores to offset averaging just 3.3 yards a carry. For Houston, Nico Collins returned and sparked the passing game with seven grabs for 118 yards and two scores. Still, when the game was on the line, much like in week one against Buffalo and week three against Indianapolis, Houston’s defense couldn’t get the stop they needed. DeMeco Ryans’ squad is 0-4: are they dead in the water at this point?
Miami at Minnesota: The Dolphins are 0-4 on the year. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 4-0. Neither team was overly impressive in the contest when all was said and done. Minnesota dominated time of possession by a 39:11 to 20:49 margin in the contest. The Vikings beat Miami 20-8 in first downs and forced the game’s only turnover. With that said, Minnesota didn’t find the end zone in the game, going zero for three in the red zone. Ollie Gordon II had 100 yards and a score for Miami on the ground but 53 of those yards came on one carry. He had 11 touches (nine carries, two receptions) to Jaylen Wright’s five (for seven yards) in the game. In a game where Justin Jefferson was out for the Vikings, tight end T.J. Hockenson was the big threat with 13 catches (on 13 targets!) for 119 yards. Jefferson hopes to return next week but we’ll have to wait and see.
Denver at San Francisco: This game was a rock fight as neither team did much in the way of moving the ball in the first half. The turning point in the contest came in the later stages of the third quarter when Marvin Mims Jr. fumbled on a punt return inside the Broncos’ 30-yard line. San Francisco took nine plays to cover 28 yards before Brock Purdy found Deebo Samuel Sr. on a one-yard scoring pass. That gave the 49ers a 10-3 lead they wouldn’t relinquish. Denver struggled to create plays in the run game as JK Dobbins (11 carries, 40 yards) and RJ Harvey (seven carries, 26 yards) were held in check. Harvey did catch 11 balls out of the backfield but that was because Bo Nix was checking down. Give Mike Evans credit as he toughed it out despite a rib injury to reel in five balls for 76 yards. It was another efficient outing for Brock Purdy.
Kansas City at Las Vegas: Patrick Mahomes remained unbeaten at Allegiant Stadium but a couple plays breaking the other way may have changed things. On the opening drive of the second half, the Raiders led 13-10 and had a fourth and two at the Kansas City 18 but rather than kick a field goal, they went for it. Kirk Cousins’ pass was incomplete and they came away with nothing. The Las Vegas defense wilted in the fourth quarter, giving up three touchdowns, after holding the Chiefs to 10 points in the first three quarters. Las Vegas fumbled a kickoff inside their own 25, setting up a touchdown, and saw their final drive end with an interception as they were driving for a potential game-tying field goal. Not a great game from Patrick Mahomes (15 of 30, 225 yards, two TD) but Kenneth Walker III continues to live up to his deal as he piled up 177 yards and two scores. Wide receiver is a watch point for the Chiefs as Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle) left with injuries. The Raiders continue to do damage with their tight ends as Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer combined for 14 catches for 168 yards and a touchdown.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle: The Chargers made a run in the second half but by then, they had dug too deep a hole to get out of, especially on the road. Los Angeles led 3-0 early only to give up the next 20 points. They were down 27-6 early in the third quarter before finally waking up and making a push. Los Angeles turned the ball over four times in the game while forcing just one takeaway, showing that they can’t win when they win the turnover battle or if they lose it. One thing to watch is that Keaton Mitchell is carving into Omarion Hampton’s touches. Mitchell had 15 touches (10 carries, five catches) to Hampton’s 11 (nine carries, two catches) while Kimani Vidal had seven (five carries, two catches) in the game. Emanuel Wilson made the most of getting the lion’s share of the work with Jadarian Price on IR as he had 21 carries for 81 yards and a score. In addition, he caught three balls for 39 yards and a score. Rashid Shaheed, who seemed to be invisible in the offense, had two carries and a catch in the game, racking up 53 total yards and a score.
Detroit at Carolina: In a game with two teams that are adept at scoring and horrid stopping the opposition, we got pretty much what we expected Sunday night. Both teams moved the ball up and down the field but in the end, the Lions had issues in the red zone. Going two of four in the red zone proved costly in the contest as Carolina went three of four. Plenty of video game numbers in this contest. Jared Goff threw for 412 yards in the game. Bryce Young went for 329 for the Panthers as Tetairoa McMillan, who did nothing for you last week in Blackout if you had him like I did, of course set a career high with 14 catches for 192 yards and two scores. Sure, some of that was driven by Jalen Coker being scratched but the fact remains that he made big plays when the Panthers needed them. Nice showing for Chuba Hubbard as he picked up 122 yards and two scores. He’s making sure that Jonathon Brooks doesn’t get another shot at the job this season if he comes back from injury.
As for the Monday night game between a pair of NFC South squads, the injury report may tell the tale in this one. The Saints are down two starting linebackers and a third {Pete Werner) is questionable. That likely creates enough room for Bijan Robinson to do damage and it helps the Falcons to a 28-24 win over the Saints in the Superdome.
--Chris Kubala
