Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: What to expect from Denver's new kicker. Is Fantasy Index trying to have it both ways with Josh Gordon? Players who could break out in 2015. And weighing Antonio Brown against Calvin Johnsons in a dynasty league.
Question 1
Approximately what would Connor Barth's Redrafter Ranking be for weeks 13-17? Would he have more value than Gano or Zuerlein?
DAVID ELLIS (Niwot, CO)
Denver right now is on pace to finish the year with 99 kicking points. Of the last 50 teams to win 12-plus games, only one other team finished under 100. But that’s not an accuracy issue. It’s not that Brandon McManus was missing dozens of kicks. If he’d made every kick he’d attempted, the Broncos would still be below-average in scoring at this position. The driver has been that Denver has been able to close drives with touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. In my eyes, that’s not affected by which kicker is standing on the sidelines waiting to kick either a field goal or an extra point. So in my eyes, there’s little chance that Barth will be a top-5 kickers down the stretch. At best, maybe the Broncos settle for a few more field goals going forward and he’s maybe one of the top dozen kickers down the stretch. For the immediate future, I think, this move could backfire. McManus was great on kickoffs, with 66 percent resulting in touchbacks. Barth doesn’t have the same kind of leg strength. When he last handled kickoffs (for Tampa Bay in 2010) only 1 of his 78 kickoffs was a touchback. They pulled him off those units. So Barth will be hitting short kickoffs, and as luck would have it, they’re playing at Kansas City on Sunday, which has some of the best return teams in the league. If the Black Mamba returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown, the Broncos will be kicking themselves for pulling the plug on McManus.
Question 2
Year in and year out you guys do a fantastic job. But I gotta call you out. Last week on the redrafter Josh Gordon showed up in the late top 20. I thought that was laughable. Are our memories really that short? After being force fed the ball last week in Atlanta (I know, weak pass d) he made it into the top 20 in this week's redrafter. Now you're really doing a disservice to your readers. But that's not even while I'm calling you out. While he is #15 in your rankings, you do the old "he could be a top 5 WR the rest of the way..." in the capsule. Wish-wash - you want it both ways? Hedging your bets? Come on! Be bold! How’s this for bold: Josh Gordon will be a top 3 WR the rest of the way. He will dominate to the level he may end the season as a top 15 overall WR.
BRYAN BERTSCH (Minneapolis, MN)
Let me be clear what I mean when I rank a guy 15th. That means that if any of those guys ranked in the top 14 are available, those are the guys I prefer. And if they’re all gone, then I’ll take Gordon before any of the other remaining receivers. Is that clear enough? That’s how I stand on him. We all agree he’s a talented guy. When he’s on his game, he’s about as good as anyone. So maybe there’s a game or two in these remaining five weeks where he’s one of the top handful of stat guys in the league. But when you look at the remaining five games as a whole, I don’t think he’s going to be one of the top dozen receivers. They don’t have the right quarterback to get him the ball, I think, and I see a couple of games on the schedule that I don’t like the look of. Don’t like Week 17 at Baltimore, and not crazy about these next two (at Buffalo and home against Indianapolis).
Question 3
PPR league keeper question going into next year and beyond. I can only keep one WR between Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson. What are your thoughts?
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
Not a lot of difference between those guys, but I’ll go with Brown. He’s three years young. Johnson is 29, and he’s had some physical problems, missing two games last year and three this season. Johnson is more of a downfield threat – catching long passes – but Brown catches a lot of passes, and that’s not to be underestimated in a PPR format. Over the past two years, Brown has caught 65 more passes than Megatron. (They’ve both caught 17 TDs.)
Question 4
Can you give me a short list of players that may not be starting now, but have a legit chance to make a fantasy impact in 2015. I am in a dynasty league and would like to get a jump on the boys! Also can you clear up the running back position in Seattle for next year.
DAMON DUHON (Baton Rouge, LA)
Jarvis Landry and Isaiah Crowell are just moving into starting lineups now, and they look like they’ll be very good in 2015. Maybe Latavius Murray. Victor Cruz, Allen Robinson, Brian Quick, Brandin Cooks and Marvin Jones are coming off injuries; don’t forget about them. Justin Blackmon might be worth a flyer (maybe you pick him up, giving yourself the option to carry him if he seems to get his stuff together). Davante Adams and Donte Moncrief are talented guys, and they’re in very good offenses. They should definitely be on rosters. Jerick McKinnon likely will be the starting tailback for the Vikings. As for the Seahawks, time will tell if they bring back Marshawn Lynch. He’s an older back, but his play hasn’t declined. He’s still a lot better than Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. I expect Michael will be the starter for that team after Lynch.
Question 5
We play total points through week 17. I have a good team minus QBs, Cutler and Stafford who are killing me slow but sure. Five weeks left. Mettenberger is available. He plays Houston this week which he threw 299 yds and two TDs week 8 and should be even better with experience. I don’t think Stafford has a prayer to match that even against the Bears. We know for sure Cutler wont and you have Cutler higher than Mettenberger. Thanks for your thoughts.
BEN HOGEVOLL (Siletz, OR)
I’m just seeing this now, so Week 13 is now obsolete. Stafford and Cutler played yesterday, of course. Stafford finished with the big numbers yesterday. My main takeaway, however, would be that they need to get their left tackle, Riley Reiff, healthy. In the first quarter of that game, Stafford was getting hit way too often, impacting his ability to operate. Reiff should be ready for their next game, and that’s a plus. Also note that Stafford’s next two games are at home against lesser defenses. Cutler’s next three games are at home. So while Mettenberger has shown some ability to throw it around, I don’t think he’s quite up there with those guys.
Question 6
I am loaded at wideout (Calvin Johnson, Demarius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin and Martavis Bryant) and have Russell Wilson as my starting QB. I can get either Rodgers or Brady from another team for one or more of my wideouts. Do you think it is worth to get rid of one of my wideouts for either, or should I protect my depth and ride out Wilson the rest of the way. I have looked at matchups and not that great for Wilson but he doesn't need good matchups to produce. I will not trade him two for one but might consider Maclin for Rodgers or Bryant for Brady. What do you think?
DAVID ENGBERG (Saint Augusta, MN)
I would have made a trade long ago. Rodgers and Brady are a lot more productive than Wilson, and with your depth at wide receiver, you can make that trade without necessarily hurting your receiver situation at all.
Question 7
I have been floating Defenses all year by picking the best available, as playoffs wind down I am thinking about shedding the bench and hoarding defenses who will be good scorers the next four weeks. Is there some resource already out there where I can find the answer that says, Week 13 = Dolphins, Colts, Lions, Week 14 is X,Y,Z. I am in CBS league with PPR added.
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
This is an interesting concept, and one that I find myself doing at this time of year. For the bulk of the season, I like to carry one defense. In September and October, my priority is to carry as many handcuff running backs as I can squeeze onto a roster. The more No. 2 running backs you have, the higher the probability you’ll get a hit. But late in the year, the probability of having a backup tailback become viable in a 2-3 week window diminishes. So at that point, it starts making more sense to pick through defenses, checking to see if there’s an ideal matchup coming 2-3 weeks down the road. As an initial starting point, you could go with the average of how the defense has played thus far, and compare it to the average of the offenses it will face. There are lots of different defensive scoring systems, though. You say you’re using PPR scoring, but I don’t know how you’re plugging that in with defenses.
