Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Will Trent Richardson bring a little something extra to the table in his first game against the Browns? Which player should be selected first in next year's drafts? What happened to the Tuesday redrafting product? And is it time to pull the plug on Steve Smith?
Question 1
Love your weekly newsletters, but I nearly fell off my chair when looking at this week's rankings. Trent Richardson at #18 in PPR? This reminds me of the early 2000's bromance between you and Ron Dayne. Would you really start Richardson over the likes of Herron, Gore and McCoy?
Ed Weiss (PARSIPPANY, NJ)
We can crack open the Richardson ranking and look at it closer if you want. For starters, we should agree on the team projection. I’ve got the Colts at about 120 rushing yards and a touchdown. They’re averaging 111 rushing yards per game, with 8 TDs. The Browns have a bottom-5 run defense; they’re allowing 132 yards per game, also with 8 TDs. Colts have scored one rushing touchdown in seven of their last nine games. Cleveland allowed Alfred Blue to run for 154 or 156 yards in their last game at home. Anyway, I’ve got them down at 120 & 1. Out of that, we need to subtract 20 yards to account for Andrew Luck and the wide receivers (both T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are candidates to maybe run the ball on an end-around). I’m also giving Luck about a 1-in-5 chance of scoring a rushing touchdown. So we are left with 100 rushing yards and .80 rushing touchdowns to be divided between Richardson and Boom Herron. Herron has played better recently. He outrushed Richardson 65-42 in Week 12, and he outgained him 88-12 last week. Herron seems to be a better receiver. They’ve both scored one touchdown in the last two weeks. In a normal game, I would slot Herron a little higher. But this is Cleveland, with Richardson playing his first game against the team that drafted him and then kicked him to the curb. I think that will cause him to have a little extra chip on his shoulder this week. I think he’ll run a little harder, and I think the team will feed him a few extra balls. If the ball winds up on the 1-yard line, I think it’s far more likely that it’s Richardson rather than Herron who’ll punch it in. So on my board, I’m slotting Richardson to account for 46 percent of the team’s rushing production, versus just 35 percent for Herron. I’m going a little stronger on rushing touchdowns, where I’ve got it at 50-31 for Richardson. Richardson hasn’t caught a pass the last two weeks, but he averaged 22 receiving yards in his previous games. So on my board, it works out to 55 rushing yards for Richardson, 18 receiving, and a 60 percent chance of a touchdown. That makes him the 18th running back on my board. Herron I have at 42 rushing and 24 receiving yards, with a 44 percent chance of a touchdown. He’s my No. 24 running back. Now suppose you don’t believe in the concept that Richardson should get any extra credit for playing against the Browns. Suppose it’s your belief that the game shouldn’t be treated any different than if they were playing the Jaguars, Texans or whoever. If you want to leave Richardson and Herron locked into their usual roles and workloads. If that’s the case, they I would have Herron as my No. 18 back (48 run, 24 rec, .51 TD) and Richardson down as the No. 31 back (49 run, 15 rec, .48 TD).
Question 2
Never to early to start thinking of 2015. With that said can you give me your top 12 next year in a redraft league?
DAVID GUIDO (Apollo, PA)
Without thinking about it too seriously, these are the guys I would possibly consider worthy of selecting in the first round (in no particular order): Rob Gronkowski, LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Dez Bryant, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Graham, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, Julio Jones, Drew Brees and maybe Adrian Peterson. Marshawn Lynch if he’s still in Seattle. Can I call Kelvin Benjamin, Carlos Hyde and Tre Mason alternates? I think that’s everyone; I hope I didn’t leave out one of the franchise guys. The way today’s game seems to work, it seems like a quarterback or two will go for 45-50 touchdowns. I would like to get one of those guys. He’s going to help you outscore most fantasy franchises by 10-20 touchdown passes, and those guys seem to stay healthy. They seem more consistent and predictable than the players at the other positions. The first four quarterbacks drafted this year, for example, were Manning, Rodgers, Luck and Brees, and none of those guys have busted. Compare that to the miss rate at running back and wide receiver. So as of today, I’d be leaning towards selecting Andrew Luck No. 1.
Question 3
Thanks again for the valuable insights and entertaining commentary this season. That said, I am somewhat frustrated that the weekly "redrafter" stops after Week 13. Yes, I understand that the season end rankings begin to have minimal value, HOWEVER, many of us reference that information for waiver wire activity at this most critical time as playoffs begin!! Any way to continue the Tuesday updates in some manner? Thanks.
michael gasper (Wilton, CT)
I understand the frustration. You get used to that Tuesday list, which has been repaired, patched and updated to reflect what’s happened on Sunday. But at the same time, at this time of year everyone’s goals are different. Most are scratching and clawing, focused on just Week 13-14. Either trying to get into the playoffs, clinch a bye or win an all-important first-round playoff game. Others are playing through Week 17, and the goals are completely different. So impossible to put together a meaningful list that works for everyone. Our resources, I think, are better utilized putting together the best product we can for the Week 14 games. We’ve got to get those projections right. And with that in mind, do you really want me using 60-70 percent of my time on Monday working on an overall broad of limited value? Or would you rather have me spend more time on each team for Wednesday. To properly scout, analyze and project a team takes close to an hour. There are 32 teams. Andy’s taking 12; I’ve got the other 20. So basically, I need about 20 hours on Monday and Tuesday to get those put together. That’s in addition to the other stuff I’m doing – checking email, posting a Factoid or Strength of Schedule chart, trivia questions, etc. Keep in mind that in October and November, there are teams on byes (saving me having to work on those 2-6 teams). No byes anymore. Trust me on this one. You will happier if you let the Redrafter go and give me the green light to fully and carefully look at each player and team for the Weekly. If you’ve got some kind of key waiver decision that must be made on Tuesday, email that in to me directly and I’ll get you a quick answer as best as I can.
Question 4
With Steve Smith struggling, do I look to Donte Montcrief or Robert Woods in the flex? Also may pick up L. Murray if he clears concussion protocol.
JON CLAUSSEN (Boca Raton, FL)
Latavius Murray has been cleared to play. According to my projections, he’s the best of those guys. He doesn’t have a great matchup, but he’s the guy I would pick up and play. As for the wide receivers, Smith’s numbers have been down a little recently, but I wouldn’t say that he’s not trying or not capable. To me, he looks like pretty much the same guy who was ripping it up pretty good in September and October. The Dolphins might have to start R.J. Stanford again at cornerback; he wasn’t even employed two weeks ago. If Smith is getting covered by Stanford, I would like to be involved in that action. Regardless, I’ve got Smith a little ahead of Woods and Moncrief. With Woods, he’s had some decent games, but it wasn’t too long ago that he wasn’t even one of the top 2 receivers on his own team – Chris Hogan was outperforming him. Moncrief is very intriguing, given that Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks are older, declining guys. I think they’re just phasing out Nicks completely, just like they did last year with Darrius Heyward-Bey. (Who’s scouting the free agent receivers for that organization?) In this particular game, Joe Haden should be on T.Y. Hilton, and that could cause Andrew Luck to look more often for the next guy, and Moncrief seems to be growing into that role. But I haven’t seen enough yet. For this week, I’ll opt to dance with what brung ya.
Question 5
Here is a trivia question for you. This past weekend two Florida teams beat two New York (New Jersey?) teams. While the Jets and Giants share a stadium in East Rutherford, the Jags' and Dolphins' homes are quite far apart. How many teams play their home games closer to East Rutherford than the distance between Jacksonville and Miami? <i>(Answer in comments section)</I>
David Leonard (Ormond Beach, FL)
Thanks for sending that along. I will put your answer at the bottom, in the comments section. Just hope that it stands up to the scrutiny of Dennis Lyons in California. He’s been carefully checking the questions I post each day, and he’s able to find an error, it seems, about every two weeks. He’s very thorough. Your question gave me an idea for a trivia question, and you’ll be able to see that on Sunday at the website.
Question 6
Playoff Time. I know I'll use the custom rankings but would like your thoughts on choosing 2 RB (.5 ppr) from this not-so-hot lot: L.Murray, P.Thomas, Gio, J.Hill (I have Ellington but he's too banged up to consider). I think the real question comes down to whether L.Murray, assuming he's even cleared to play vs. SF, is worth playing over one of the two Bengal (bungle?) backs in their seemingly friendly matchup vs. Pittsburgh (not that good matchups have mattered much recently for Cincy anyway), AND if so, which Bengal do we sit? Would have seemed crazy to suggest six weeks ago, but should Gio head to the bench? Unless they have just been working him in slowly these first 2 weeks back since injury and suddenly he will jump from 10 carries to 15+ with receptions, 10-12 carries and most likely zero short plunges may not cut it. He really only has 3 above average games this year and simply hasn't been very good otherwise, and J.Hill got the receptions last week, not Gio. On the flip side, while J.Hill has been more productive, the rookie can't keep his mouth shut, this time spouting off Sunday about Dalton's check-downs effecting the run game. Not that talking should put him in more of a doghouse this week but still, we think about these small things when making tough decisions for the playoffs. Look forward to your insight on this muddy group.
Russell Ditnes (Jamison, PA)
There’s always the potential of starting the wrong guy. That’s the nature of the beast. That’s the game we play. When you start two running backs, there’s always a viable chance that one of the backs left unselected will get hot, punch in a touchdown or bust a run, leaving you kicking yourself. But this doesn’t look like a particularly difficult one to me. Pierre Thomas isn’t in the mix. It’s half-point PPR, not full, and he probably wouldn’t be in there anyway. Latavius Murray has played well in his last two and has been cleared to play, but San Francisco has been awfully tough against the run. Big difference between running through holes against Kansas City, which has maybe the league’s worst run defense right now, and the 49ers, who are top 5. It’s the Bengals pair. You ride with those guys, hoping they combine for about 130 rushing yards and a touchdown or two, plus maybe a half-dozen catches. Bernard has been a disappointment. I’ll agree there. But he was more effective (per attempt) than Hill last week. And at some point they’ll get back to utilizing him correctly in the passing game. He had over 60 receiving yards in each of his first two games this season.
Question 7
An old name/voice/friend from the past: Paul Barnes (aka Barney's Rubble). I have to tell you I was within 1 point from the top spot in this week's <i>Fantasy Index Super League</I>. The Jimmy Graham goose egg was a dagger. Just trying to stay on the first page of the leaderboard at this point. You guys still doing a great job. You still think more closely as I do than anybody else. I got the entire FFI package this season and have been relying on it. But Delanie Walker ranked higher than Coby Fleener in Week 13? Used that in one pool, but with Luck, Mason, Green, and some others it didn't matter. Just pulling your leg. I'm still plugging away as a fantasy leaguer. My three leagues have aged pretty well: 33 years, 28 years, and 17 years and counting. Can you believe how the industry has changed? When we started, no email, no internet, no stats available until as late as the next morning. I tell people how it was in the 1980s and they don’t believe me. Last year I counted 34 services (just for information). In 1988 there were 4 of us.
PAUL BARNES (Silver Spring, MD)
I remember you well, Paul. B2 Sports. It was B2 as in B squared. There was another guy working with you whose name also began with a B. You came out and had dinner with us in the early ‘90s. You participated in our first Experts Polls. It was in the second year that we scored the Experts Poll for the first time, and you tied for first. It’s good to hear from you. Let me know the next time you’re in the Puget Sound area, and I’ll do the same when I’m back East. I saw the name “Barney’s Rubble” on the leaderboard, but I didn’t know it was yours. I’ll keep an eye open for it now. Peace.
Question 8
What defense would you recommend picking up to start weeks 15 and 16 (Week 14 does not matter)? Could you give several defense in case the #1 defense for those weeks is already owned. Thanks.
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
Can you pick up two? At this time of year, I think it makes sense to bail on handcuff running backs and start obtaining second kickers and second defenses that definitely will start. I did an deal on the website on Wednesday, where I put together a chart showing where each defense should rank in each of the final four weeks. Using the current stats for both defenses and offenses they’ll face, I averaged those numbers to generate a preliminary order. Top 10 for Week 15 is Philadelphia, Arizona, Baltimore, Houston, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Giants, Buffalo, Carolina and Dallas. Top 10 for Week 16 is Philadelphia, Green Bay, Buffalo, Tennessee, St. Louis, Giants, New England, Cleveland, Detroit and Indianapolis. Best aggregate rankings for Weeks 15-16 are Philadelphia (2 – first both weeks), Green Bay (8), Buffalo (11), Giants (13), Arizona (15), Tennessee (15), Dallas Houston (19), New England (19). Detroit (23), Baltimore (26), Dallas (27), Miami (28) and St. Louis (28)
Question 9
Strategy question here. Do you think it makes sense to roll the dice on a guy like Shaun Hill this week against Washington rather playing your normal QB (Sanchez)? How much does match-up dictate your rankings? I really feel like Hill should have a solid week against one of the worst defenses.
Rick Anderson (Sun Prairie, WI)
Matchups play a big role. The opponent, after all, is half of the equation. You’ve got an offense, and you’ve got a defense trying to stop them. In this situation, I would want no part of Mark Sanchez. He’s been turning the ball over too often, and he’s going against a secondary that’s awfully strong. The Seahawks have held six of their last seven opponents under 200 passing yards. So I would definitely be in the market for a fill-in. It wouldn’t be Hill (I’ve got him ranked even lower than Sanchez). Looking at my projection list and guessing which guys might be available in a typical league, I’d be checking into the roster status of Colt McCoy and Blake Bortles. I’d be hoping for one of those guys. If those guys aren’t available, then you’re probably down to a trio of guys who project to be just slightly better than Sanchez – Bridgewater, Stanton and Mettenberger.
Question 10
Do you think there's any point to picking up Spiller in deeper leagues? That week 16 game against OAK is kinda tempting. Think he and his fresh legs will at least rate as a decent flex in that game? 14 teams, 1/2 PPR, running backs tough to come by. Thanks!
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
Sounds like he at least worth a roster spot in your league. He returned to practice on Wednesday, so it looks like he’s going to play.
Question 11
Do you guys have any intel on Khiry Robinson? I have Mark Ingram as my third RB (we start three) and have the handcuffs for Demarco Murray and Eddie Lacy. I'd love to protect Mark Ingram in case of injury with the gravy matchups in weeks 15 and 16. I am baffled that in this day and age the Saints have been able to completely hide the nature of Robinson's so called "boo-boo."
BRYAN BERTSCH (Minneapolis, MN)
He missed six games, so most likely it was a broken arm. He’s practicing now and expected to play on Sunday, so it looks safe to move ahead with Robinson as the handcuff. If Ingram gets hurt this week, it should be Robinson toting the rock in Weeks 15-16 against Chicago and Atlanta.
Question 12
I've had the fortune of having both Bernard/Hill and Hillman/CJ Anderson all year and have been reaping rewards. However, the next few weeks I'm feeling like I'm at a disadvantage now because in Cincinnati's case there's close to a 50/50 split. I did use Hill last week at Houston and picked right. How do you deal with those guys going into 14-16? I see your rankings have Hill and Bernard both with the same amount of points. Do you sit them both and start Fred Jackson? Same thing about to happen in Denver I gather?
Bill Petilli (Larchmont, NY)
You definitely start Anderson. You cross your fingers and hope he’ll be able to go the distance for you. I think he will. With Cincinnati, you’ve got to pick a guy. Bernard is a better pass catcher. Hill is more likely to carry at the goal line, and he’s been playing better recently. I don’t think Jackson’s in the mix. He’s more of a full-time guy, but I don’t see Buffalo doing too much at Denver on Sunday.
