Three wide receivers go in the top 10. That was a surprise, I think. It doesn’t happen often. And as I look at previous drafts, I’m confident that at least one of those picks will flame out.
With Corey Davis in Tennessee, he looks fine. He’s just got to put in the work and emerge, though. The Titans have Rishard Matthews, and he was really good in the second half of last year. Could be a while before Davis is outproducing him.
Similarly in San Diego, Mike Williams is big and has talent, but the Chargers have a bunch of other capable pass catchers. Keenan Allen has been good in the past. Travis Benjamin will chip in some big plays. The guy who was filling in for Allen last year, Tyrell Williams, is a good player. When (if ever) will the rookie climb to the top of that pile.
John Ross will score some long touchdowns, but he might never be a “No. 1 receiver”. They’ve still got A.J. Green, and he’s one of the very best. I don’t expect they’ll immediately kick their other receivers to the curb either (Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd).
Anyway, I got the previous drafts out. In the last 30 years, 38 other wide receivers have been selected with top-10 picks. Thirteen of those guys (about a third) in my opinion went on to have great careers – they were difference-making guys.
But 16 of those picks didn’t really pan out at all. I have a black dot next to those names. With all of those guys, they didn’t do well enough that if teams could back up the clock and re-draft, any of them would be selected in the first round. Some of these players have had long careers (Ted Ginn and Darrius Heyward-Bey, for example), but in hindsight none had any business being chosen in the first round.
The other nine are the tweener guys. They had brief success or some success. Maybe in hindsight some team would still choose them in the first round. Michael Westbrook and Braylon Edwards, for example, each had one really big season. Maybe they would have faired better in another city. Michael Crabtree, Keyshawn Johnson and Curtis Conway have caught plenty of balls. But none of the players are in this group are guys who should have been chosen in the top 10. (And these are were left in plain type, with neither bolding nor a black dot).
(I was torn, by the way, on how to list Amari Cooper. He's been solid thus far but doesn't look particularly likely to develop into a true superstar. He might be more like Keyshawn, Crabtree and Terry Glenn. But I'm in an optimistic mode and put him in bold.)
| WIDE RECEIVERS SELECTED WITH TOP-10 PICKS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 1996 | 1 | Keyshawn Johnson, NYJ | 63 | 844 | 13.4 | 8 |
| 2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 48 | 756 | 15.8 | 5 |
| 2003 | 2 | • Charles Rogers, Det. | 22 | 243 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 32 | 512 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 2004 | 3 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 58 | 780 | 13.4 | 8 |
| 2003 | 3 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 66 | 976 | 14.8 | 4 |
| 2015 | 4 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1,070 | 14.9 | 6 |
| 2014 | 4 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 65 | 982 | 15.1 | 6 |
| 2011 | 4 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 65 | 1,057 | 16.3 | 7 |
| 2000 | 4 | • Peter Warrick, Cin. | 51 | 592 | 11.6 | 7 |
| 1995 | 4 | Michael Westbrook, Wash. | 34 | 522 | 15.4 | 2 |
| 1992 | 4 | • Desmond Howard, Wash. | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| 2012 | 5 | • Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 13.5 | 5 |
| 2011 | 6 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 54 | 959 | 17.8 | 8 |
| 1999 | 6 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 52 | 788 | 15.2 | 6 |
| 1988 | 6 | Tim Brown, Rdrs. | 43 | 725 | 16.9 | 7 |
| 2015 | 7 | • Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| 2014 | 7 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1,051 | 15.5 | 12 |
| 2009 | 7 | • Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 9 | 124 | 13.8 | 1 |
| 2005 | 7 | • Troy Williamson, Minn. | 24 | 372 | 15.5 | 2 |
| 2004 | 7 | Roy Williams, Det. | 54 | 817 | 15.1 | 8 |
| 1997 | 7 | • Ike Hilliard, NYG | 2 | 42 | 21.0 | 0 |
| 1996 | 7 | Terry Glenn, N.E. | 90 | 1,132 | 12.6 | 6 |
| 1993 | 7 | Curtis Conway, Chi. | 19 | 231 | 12.2 | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | Sterling Sharpe, G.B. | 55 | 791 | 14.4 | 1 |
| 2013 | 8 | • Tavon Austin, St.L. | 40 | 418 | 10.5 | 6 |
| 2001 | 8 | • David Terrell, Chi. | 34 | 415 | 12.2 | 4 |
| 2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 22 | 273 | 12.4 | 0 |
| 1999 | 8 | David Boston, Ariz. | 40 | 473 | 11.8 | 2 |
| 1995 | 8 | Joey Galloway, Sea. | 67 | 1,039 | 15.5 | 9 |
| 2007 | 9 | • Ted Ginn Jr., Mia. | 34 | 420 | 12.4 | 3 |
| 2004 | 9 | • Reggie Williams, Jac. | 27 | 268 | 9.9 | 1 |
| 2001 | 9 | • Koren Robinson, Sea. | 39 | 536 | 13.7 | 1 |
| 2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 48 | 625 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 2005 | 10 | • Mike Williams, Det. | 29 | 350 | 12.1 | 1 |
| 2000 | 10 | • Travis Taylor, Balt. | 28 | 276 | 9.9 | 3 |
| 1995 | 10 | • J.J. Stokes, S.F. | 38 | 517 | 13.6 | 4 |
| 1991 | 10 | Herman Moore, Det. | 11 | 135 | 12.3 | 0 |
—Ian Allan