In the last two years, some of the best picks at quarterback have been guys in their second seasons. Patrick Mahomes, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz all outperformed expectations. Can Sam Darnold be one of those guys?
I am leaving Baker Mayfield out of this conversation. I think he’s a different kind of prospect. Mayfield played well enough during the second half of the season that I think most believe he’s on his way. With the weapons they’ve got around him, I think Mayfield will be one of the first 10 quarterbacks chosen in drafts.
Darnold is a different kind of prospect, and one that’s more common. Team puts quarterbacks to start as a rookie, and he takes his lumps. What are the chances of that player then coming back in his second season and evolving into a viable fantasy quarterback?
Picking through the numbers, I see 32 quarterbacks in this century who both started at least half of the season as rookies and also didn’t put up top-20 numbers (that’s per-game production and using standard scoring). We can look at how those guys did coming back in their second seasons, and it might make us feel more confident when projecting how Darnold might finish.
Of the previous 32, five didn’t play at all. Of the remaining 27, four didn’t start half of the season.
Of these second-year quarterbacks, I see only three that went shooting way up the statistical charts, finishing with top-10 numbers. Carson Wentz is the poster child – an MVP favorite until tearing knee ligaments late in the year. The other two top-10 quarterbacks both come with asterisks. Blake Bortles somehow finished as the No. 2 statistical quarterback in 2015, but everyone could see he wasn’t actually an above-average quarterback – he somehow managed to pile up a lot of yards and touchdowns in the second halves of losses. A smaller asterisk for Trubisky, who used his mobility and a quarterback-friendly offense around him to finish last season as the 10th-best per-game quarterback.
Only two others finished in the top 15 – 2005 Ben Roethlisberger and 2012 Andy Dalton.
With as many good quarterbacks as are in the league right now, I don’t see Darnold finishing in the top 10. Even top 15 will be difficult. But he looks like a quarterback on the rise. The cast around him is better, and he’s got some experience. Darnold’s two best games last year were the last two he played at home – he passed for 594 yards and 5 TDs, with no interceptions, in home shootouts against Houston and Green Bay.
The Jets signed LeVeon Bell, and that should help Darnold – gives him a good check-down option and should help keep defenses honest. They also added slot receiver Jamison Crowder.
If I were walking into a draft, I would be willing to select Darnold as backup quarterback. But it would be with the expectation that he’ll be an average fantasy backup, rather than a breakout guy.
Here are the 2nd-year stats for quarterbacks who started at least half of their rookie season and also didn’t finish with top-20 numbers as rookies. So no Mayfield, Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen on this list – Jackson started only seven games, and none of the three ranked outside the top 20 in production.
I blended the TD passes and TD runs into one column (I didn’t want the thing to get too cluttered). “Pts” shows fantasy points per start, using standard scoring. “Diff” compares those points to the rookie average only three quarterbacks in their second season averaged lesser stats in their second season, and I’ve got them tagged with black dots). The final column shows the players per-game rank, relative to others who started at least half of the season.
| SECOND-YEAR QUARTERBACKS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | Run | TD | Pts | Diff | Rk |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 254 | 23 | 2.54 | 25.7 | 45% | 2 |
| 2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 277 | 19 | 2.31 | 25.4 | 56% | 2 |
| 2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 230 | 30 | 1.93 | 23.2 | 58% | 10 |
| 2013 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 5 | 304 | 8 | 1.60 | 22.5 | 43% | -- |
| 2015 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 249 | 9 | 2.00 | 21.4 | 34% | 20 |
| 2014 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 5 | 259 | 6 | 1.80 | 20.8 | 28% | -- |
| 2012 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 229 | 8 | 1.94 | 20.5 | 21% | 14 |
| 2013 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 245 | 15 | 1.56 | 20.1 | 29% | 20 |
| 2010 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 16 | 216 | 23 | 1.56 | 19.4 | 15% | 16 |
| 2014 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 4 | 210 | 13 | 1.50 | 18.3 | 3% | -- |
| 2005 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 12 | 199 | 6 | 1.67 | 17.7 | 13% | 15 |
| 2009 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 14 | 208 | 4 | 1.64 | 17.5 | 10% | 18 |
| 2009 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 226 | 4 | 1.31 | 16.9 | 14% | 21 |
| 2010 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 16 | 206 | 7 | 1.25 | 16.4 | 22% | 23 |
| 2011 | Colt McCoy, Clev. | 13 | 209 | 16 | 1.08 | 16.4 | 7% | 23 |
| 2012 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 16 | 183 | 16 | 1.25 | 16.1 | 0% | 26 |
| 2015 | • Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 16 | 202 | 12 | 1.06 | 16.0 | -14% | 30 |
| 2002 | Quincy Carter, Dall. | 7 | 209 | 13 | 1.00 | 15.8 | 33% | -- |
| 2014 | • Geno Smith, NYJ | 13 | 187 | 18 | 1.08 | 15.6 | -8% | 30 |
| 2008 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 14 | 193 | 8 | 1.00 | 15.0 | 24% | 24 |
| 2003 | David Carr, Hou. | 11 | 181 | 11 | 1.00 | 14.5 | 8% | 26 |
| 2003 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 16 | 180 | 5 | 1.06 | 14.0 | 5% | 27 |
| 2011 | • Sam Bradford, St.L. | 10 | 216 | 3 | .60 | 13.5 | -17% | 32 |
| 2004 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 16 | 160 | 12 | .88 | 12.9 | 11% | 31 |
| 2012 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 10 | 166 | 6 | .90 | 12.9 | 9% | 31 |
| 2019 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2006 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2007 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2011 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2017 | Cody Kessler, Clev. | 0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2018 | DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
—Ian Allan