Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. A free agent who could come to the rescue for the Texans. Re-opening the Fantasy Index Open. When to draft holdout running backs. Explaining David Johnson's mediocre projection. And more.
Question 1
Any truth to Houston possibly signing Jay Ajayi? I need some depth at running back and I think he could be a steal wherever he lands.
Matthew White (Knoxville, TN)
Sounds good to me. The Texans need to add somebody, and I’m sure Ajayi is a guy they’ll contact. He’s coming off a torn ACL, so they’ll want to work him out and see where he’s at. If he were 100 percent, I think we would have heard more about him in June and July. Makes some sense, though, as an end-of-the-bench prospect who could wind up in a viable role. If they were to sign him tomorrow, I would still have Duke Johnson higher on my board.
Question 2
Please consider re-opening the Fantasy Index Open in light of the Andrew Luck news. Seems silly to reward the team ranking Luck/Colts players lowest just because Luck retired. An August 8 deadline is so early anyway with all the injuries in pre-season not sure why you can't adjust up until next week at least anyway?
STEVE WEBER (Paso Robles, CA)
Agreed. It’s unfortunate. I don’t see any way around it. How are we suppose to explain this out-of-the-blue change to the handful of guys who cleverly didn’t list Luck at all, figuring there was a great chance he would get hurt? Or the guy who put in his entry and is now off the grid, backpacking in New Zealand?
Only viable option I can think of would be to have multiple contests – one with the training camp deadline, and one that remains open right up until the kickoff of the Packers-Bears game next week.
Question 3
I am drafting week 4 of preseason. Assuming there is no change with Elliott or Gordon by then, how far would you let them slide in a 12-team ppr snake draft? I draft in 10th spot.
William Martin (Winnipeg, MB)
These guys are going to play football. LeVeon Bell 2018 is not the new normal. Maybe they miss a game, or maybe the time away in August results in them having a lighter load early in the season, but I expect both will show up. When next week comes, the game of chicken intensifies, with teams potentially having to go without star players and the running backs potentially missing paychecks. That should turn up the heat and help those deals get done. If I were drafting 10th in your league, I would guess I would go the safe route in the first round, selecting a wide receiver. If Elliott were still there at 2.03, I would probably select him. With Gordon, he’d be on my short list of possibilities at 3.10. Draft him there, and then as soon as he signs you feel like you’ve landed yourself a really good deal.
Question 4
Can you share why you think David Johnson will be worse than everyone else thinks?
Randy Newland (Villa Hills, KY)
Is the team any good? If you believe that Arizona has a top-10 offense, than it’s a different discussion. My grade on Johnson includes the potential that this instead is one of the league’s five worst offenses. The offensive line isn’t very good, we know that. I don’t expect they’ll be running for a lot of touchdowns, and when they do, I’m thinking maybe a third of those rushing touchdowns will come on quarterback draws around the goal line. Kyler Murray might get broken in half at some point, and that possibility needs to be factored in. Johnson is a capable enough receiver, but I’m not sure how much they’re going to use him. Kliff Kingsbury didn’t really use his running backs as pass catchers much at Texas Tech. Take him if you wish, of course. It’s your team. But for me, Johnson looks like just a decent running back prospect. Not an elite, can’t-miss guy. I would put him in with guys like Kerryon Johnson, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, LeVeon Bell, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry – guys you are hoping will be good, but you have to keep your fingers crossed.
Question 5
Can you rank the top 20 or so backup quarterbacks, based on talent? (Not counting likelihood of actually playing). And where would Jacoby Brissett rank in that list if Luck hadn't retired?
Sarah Clark (Sherman Oaks, CA)
I don’t see 20 that I like. I don’t see 10. I will go with Brissett at the top, followed by Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Mullens, Daniel Jones, Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins and Josh McCown.
Question 6
I know from reading your articles that you're a fan of including kicker scoring in fantasy leagues. There is a growing wave of discontent (lead by a guy in my league named Lance) over the inclusion of kickers. He thinks they inject a randomness into a game that already relies too heavily on luck. What reasons do you put forward in support of kickers?
Gregory Wells (Lake Forest Park, WA)
To me, it seems like it’s been the opposite in recent years. Guys such as Gostkowski, Tucker, Lutz, Gould and Zuerlein keep raking up the points. Kicker has been arguably the most consistent and predictable position.
Question 7
Playing in a SuperFlex 14 team league for the first time. I think basic ppr scoring but would that make Mahomes #1 overall?
Ira Rodrigues (Honolulu, HI)
If we’re allowing teams to sue quarterbacks in the flex spot, everyone is going to want to have 2-3 good quarterbacks. Sam Darnold is a nominal afterthought, but he would be better than any RB, WR or TE in that flex spot. So I would expect about 25 of the first 40 picks would be quarterbacks. Mahomes No. 1 overall in every draft.
Question 8
We’re now closing out the pre-season, do you have any strong feelings about the Tampa Bay Backfield? Barber or Jones? Or perhaps someone else? Does it really matter ... meaning will either one have any high value? Thanks.
Joe Van Koevering (St Petersburg, FL)
I’m not super high on either. I think they’ll be a one-two punch. I haven’t seen evidence that either is much of a receiver. Bruce Arians has been a good offensive coach, but he typically tends to build more around the passing game. Bucs are a lesser team – will be tough for them to overtake the Saints, Panthers or Falcons.
Question 9
10 team keeper league (QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex) and I have Kamara in hand with the 7th pick. Looks like I will have my pick of Julio, JuJu, Thomas, Tyreek. But can you talk me out of Kelce at 7 and then waiting for the whoever is left coming back around?
Nick Y. (Fairfax, VA)
I like Kelce. I’ve got him in a couple of leagues. But I find that when you select him, it comes with a cost. You’re going to be a little leaner at RB or WR. And when you get into the middle of the draft, it could play out that the best values on the board are tight ends – guys like Austin Hooper and Kyle Rudolph seem to last too long. If you’ve already taken Kelce, it’s then harder to cash in on those kind of values.
Question 10
In your standard cheat sheet you have the top 4 as RB but in my custom rankings it is top 10 rb then Mahomes and another rb. No WR until 13. My league is 10 teams, non-ppr, 2 rb, 2 wr-te, one flex. I have never done an auction but to customize I need to estimate the number taken and how many will be over the minimum bid. I have no idea how many would go for minimum but I used 63 total rb and 43 over min. WR I used 57 and 40. Do those estimates seem reasonable and does it sound right that the overall rankings would be that different for my league compared to the standard 12 team?
Randy Newland (Villa Hills, KY)
When settling on these numbers, it can be useful to look at previous years. In your league’s last three drafts, how many running backs and wide receivers were selected? You can also look at our projected numbers. On our board, we’ve got Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones and Kalen Ballage as the #41, 42 and 43 running backs. Do you feel like those guys are worth more than $1.00? They seem like nominal guys to me. If you were to draft all three, you might reasonably conclude that two might be released before October as fresh options emerged on the waiver wire. At wide receiver, you’re saying only 40 are worth more than $1.00, but that would make Jarvis Landry, Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones and Allen Robinson all worth just $1.00. They’re all projected to score at least 10 more points than the three previous running backs. There’s a flex in this league, right? You tossed out the numbers of 57 and 63, so I will assume that 120 RB-WR-TE will be chosen. If we go with just the highest-scoring guys, we’ll see 50 running backs and 70 receivers (WR-TE). If we operate under the assumption that we’re only paying for guys who’ll score more than 110 points, then it’s 37 running backs (out of 50) worth more than the min, and 41 of the 70 receivers. (So Kirk, Jones and Robinson, I’m saying those guys are the best of the wide receivers not worth more than $1.00.) Those are the numbers I’d start out with.
Question 11
We know about Todd Gurley's knee, but who should be the handcuff RB? Malcolm Brown or Darrell Henderson?
John Wozniak (Lackawanna, NY)
Henderson averaged 8.9 yards per carry in each of his last two years at Memphis, but I haven’t seen anything too special in the preseason. There was one wheel route against Dallas where he ran away from Jaylon Smith after the catch. I don’t know, but I would guess that Malcolm Brown, with more experience, would be their No. 2 for at least the start of the season. If Gurley were to be sidelined, it could be a one-two punch.
Question 12
What's the latest on Amari Cooper?
Jack Silverman (Mendota Hts, MN)
He’s missed most of August with a plantar fascia issue. He’s indicated it’s not going to be a problem in the regular season. I expect he’ll be fine, but I lowered Cooper some on my most recent board. I’ve seen a couple of reports indicating Michael Gallup is playing with a lot more confidence this season. He knows the offense better now. Gallup caught a touchdown early in the Houston game.
Question 13
What's your best advice on where to get the most accurate ADP? As always, thanks to you and everyone on the team for the greatest fantasy football site in the world!
Steven Schipper (Winnipeg, MB)
I don’t know which ADP data is the most accurate. Usually when I look at ADP, I see a few players that are out of whack – as if the information is outdated or from a different scoring system. Typically rookies are way too high, and that’s probably because some of the leagues are using a dynasty or keeper format. Tony Holm does some of the tech work for MyFantasyLeague.com I was speaking to him about ADP at a fantasy football conference a year ago. He says he’s involved with the preparation of the ADP data for that website. He says they focus in on specific scoring systems, and that they also keep it current (that is, tossing out drafts that are more than a week old). He says that for some players, they use not the player’s ADP, but what they think the player’s ADP should be. That is, when Josh Gordon was recently reinstated by the league, they went in and changed the number, showing not where Gordon was going, but where they expected him to be going in upcoming drafts.
Question 14
We have a 14-team $100 auction. Using the customized settings to get auction values, the values provided are too low to reflect what the top guys will go for based on (25 years!) of league experience. Is there a way to tweak the settings to create a greater skew in the value output?
MICHAEL PHILLIPS (West Hartfrd, CT)
If you want to make the top-end players worth more, you need to transfer money from the guys on the back half of the roster. Make more players worth just the league minimum, and that extra money will then be re-allocated to the better players. To do this, click on “Your Stuff” and then “editing scoring profiles”. Pick the league in question. Inside there’s an auction set up area. That’s where you define how many players you expect to be chosen, and how many are worth just $1. In your league, for example, it’s probably got the 14 teams combining to pick 28 quarterbacks, and I would guess that maybe 17 of the 28 quarterbacks are defined to be worth more than $1.00. That makes quarterback #18 worth $1.00, and for the quarterbacks ahead of him, their value is determined by how much better they are than that 18th quarterback. If you want to make Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan worth more, then you could change it only 10 of the 28 quarterbacks being worth more than $1.00. Now, the final 18 quarterbacks will all be worth just $1.00. All of that money previously spent on quarterbacks 11 thru 17 will now be transferred to the top-end prospects. I’m not suggesting that your best strategy in this league is to spend more on the top-end players. This could be a situation where a bunch of the guys in your league are simply overpaying for the star players. But you asked how to make those guys at the top worth more money. That’s how to do it.
Question 15
Who would be a good solid pick at 7 in a ppr league?
Mark Gilinger (Philadelphia, PA)
I think you’ll be looking at one of the good wide receivers – Hopkins, Thomas, Smith-Schuster, Adams. With Ezekiel Elliott unsigned, I think there’s some chance he’ll be sitting there, leaving you the tough decision of whether to go the safe route with a 100-catch wide receiver or gamble on a possible top-4 running back.
Question 16
Can you explain why you dropped Gordon so far down and left Elliot close to his original spot? I actually just read somewhere Gordon was going to report in time for the season. Not sure how credible that is, but if you're picking 6th in a draft this upcoming weekend is his ranking going to improve to that level?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I don’t have any kind of inside info on either guy. That’s not what I do. I don’t have team or agent contacts that are feeding me off-the-radar tidbits. I’m just trying make sense of everything the best I can – watching all the preseason games and reading all the news stories. With Elliott and Gordon, I expect they’ll show up and play. That’s what almost always happens in these situations. To me, both guys look like good opportunities for fantasy owners with the stones to pick them.
Question 17
I’m in a 12-team PPR keeper league and get to keep one player. Torn between keeping Chris Carson for my 6th round pick, Austin Ekeler for my 10th round pick, or Hunter Henry(stashed on my IR) for my 13th. What would you do ...
SCOTT MATTHEWS (La Mesa, CA)
I don’t think any of them look like killer values. I’ve got them at about 43rd, 71st and 90th on my overall board. That means in the sixth round, you would be getting a player who should have been selected about 20 picks earlier. Or you could wait until the 10th and get a player who should have been picked about 40 picks earlier. Or if you camp out until the 13th, you could get a player who should have been picked about 60 players earlier. Those are all fine, but in each case, there’s the potential that if you didn’t protect anybody, you might still be able to select an even better player with the draft pick.
Question 18
Can you help me with 2QB or Super flex draft cheat sheets?
PHILIP FERKLER (Mount Airy, MD)
Yes. The process here is to carefully follow the team and project numbers for all of the notable players – touchdowns, rushing yards, catches, etc. Those player projections are then sitting on the website, available to be run through any number of filters. You click on the option closest to your scoring system, and it generates the rankings to fit that league. “Start 2 QBs” is one of the available options. It assumes that more quarterbacks will be selected, and that there will be more demand for the top guys. (So quarterbacks tend to appear higher on the overall board.) Inside each “scoring profile” is an auction area where users can interact with how we have it set up. (Click on “Your Stuff” then on the right side of the page look for “Edit Your Scoring Profiles”. The basic premise at each position is for you to tell us how many players will be chosen at each position, and how many of those guys you actually care about. The initial assumption is that for about a third of the players at each position, they’re not really important. They would be $1.00 players in an auction. Many of those players will be released in mid-September when you notice some other wide receiver catching more passes, for example. We’ve got our system set up to determine the value of the notable players by how much better they are than the best players who are worth only $1.00.
Question 19
I've got the 8th pick in a 10-man league. I tend to agree with your high ranking of both Connor and Cook, although most other sites have guys like Bell, DJ and Chubb ahead of them. Likewise, I like Juju and Ty Hill as you do over guys like Julio, Odell and even Michael Thomas. As a result, I think I'll be able to get some combination of these guys at 8 and 13. In my position, would you go RB/RB and take Connor and Cook, if available? Or would you make it a priority to grab an elite receiver? If so, would you prefer Connor and Juju (for some reason, I'm hesitant to do this because they're on the same team)? Or maybe mix it up and grab Juju at 8 and hope Cook is still around at 13? I feel like I definitely want at least one of those Pitt guys so I'd appreciate your input on who and what order to draft from this position. Thanks.
Jeffrey Damiani (Cambridge, MA)
Connor looks good to me. I like that he’s got a clean handcuff. If you pick up Jaylen Samuels later on, I think you’re really set at that spot (if Conner were to get hurt, it really wouldn’t be a huge blow to your fantasy team – you would be just find with Samuels). I tend to prefer to start with a more balanced roster (a RB and a WR) but with it being a smaller league (10 teams) I think you can go any number of ways with those first two picks and it will be fine.
Question 20
Why is Baltimore signing another kicker?
GEORGE CHURCHFIELD (Phoenix, AZ)
They’re just giving Justin Tucker a week off, I think.
Question 21
Drafting 7th in a PPR snake draft and I am having some difficulty with pick 3.07 and 4.06 (3rd and 4th round). It seems like WR (Thomas, JuJu) is the pick in round 1 and either RB (Cook) or WR again in round 2. When the 3rd round returns back, where is the value? Assuming a fairly normal draft, using APD, most of the top players will be drafted and all of the higher ranked remaining player (on the custom draft board) can be had in rounds 5-8. So my question is, who do I take?
dan renzi (Moorestown, NJ)
You’ll need to get some running backs at some point. So while the overall board might point you in the direction of taking two wide receivers early, it could make some sense to give away a few points early to leave you with more flexibility in the next three rounds. If you open with a WR and a RB, you will have more ability to cash in on the WR values that should be there in the next three rounds. If you open with two WRs, you might be trapped into forcing a pick on a RB who isn’t worthy. I would expect James White will factor in somewhere in those later rounds. With his 80-plus catches, he’ll be a solid scorer as a running back in PPR formats. He tends to last too long in most drafts.
Question 22
I'm in a half PPR, 12-team league. I'm drafting 8th. I notice in a lot of mock drafts and ADP that Kelce seems to be available with pick 2.04 and Ertz seems to be available with pick 4.08. I was wondering if it makes any sense to draft BOTH and use Ertz in the flex.
Andrew Napoli (Alexandria, VA)
I checked my numbers. If we forget about positions and look at expected points for RB, WR and TE, they come in at 11th and 37th on my board. So if I were picking for all 12 teams, they’d be gone before 2.04 and before 4.08. You could use one in the flex. Maybe one gets sidelined by an injury at some point. And if you wanted to back out, I imagine you would be able to put together a trade. Only flaw in the plan that I see is that it takes you out of being able to take advantage of the nice tight end deals that seem to occur in the second half of every draft.
Question 23
We have had the same 12 team league for a long time with a starting lineup is 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1flex, 1te, 1k, 1def. Standard scoring. It sounds like we are going to a lineup of 2qb, 2rb, 2wr, 2flex and 1te. Depending on the vote. We are getting rid of def and k. Can I get your thoughts on this maybe pros and cons so I have an argument for or against?
SCOTT TINSMAN (Laona, WI)
I like the idea of starting two quarterbacks. It’s the most important position in real life. I hate to see it devalued by having each fantasy team start only one. In one-quarterback leagues, it’s a valid strategy to treat quarterbacks like kickers, not selecting one until the 10th round. Doubling the number of starting quarterbacks levels the playing field, ensuring we’ll see quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers selected in the first round.
Question 24
We have a 12-team league. We have roster spots for 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks and 1 DEF. Having only 1 defense, we have being doing what we call a replacement defense procedure. The week your defense has a bye you are allowed to pick up a replacement defense. In order to do that the coach goes on to CBS.Sportsline, drops their regular defense and picks up the replacement during the Wednesday night waiver process. I as commisioner then go back and switch them back on Tuesday morning after the week's games. It's a cumbersome process and has backfired on me when I forgot to switch them back. A different coach used a waiver on the following Wednesday to pick up the original coaches permanent defense screwing up the whole waiver process. Obviously the answer is to draft 2 defenses but we want only 1 defense so that there are 20 available defenses to pick up instead of only 8. Do you have a better idea on how we can handle this?
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
I don’t understand why you’re carrying two kickers but only one defense, but whatever. Change the website parameters so that each team has roster spots to carry two defenses, but instruct teams to carry only one. On weeks where the team’s regular defense has a bye, it is allowed to pick up a second defense, playing it in the extra roster hole. The coach (not the commissioner) is then responsible for releasing the second defense on Tuesday morning. If the home page looks too unsightly with teams having blank roster spots (perhaps the website keeps throwing up warning message or whatever) instruct each team to fill that extra roster spot with an insignificant placeholder player – somebody who’s retired, suspended, an IDP or simply not very good.
Question 25
Looking for your thoughts on late RB fliers in a 12 team, half PPR league. In between Jalen Richard, C.J. Anderson, Ty Montgomery. I feel like Anderson might be the best handcuff, may also get some goal line work, but Montgomery and Richard should sprinkle in enough to have some small value as bye week fill ins or flex worthy if needed on a week to week basis, hoping they catch some passes. Let me know what you think - only have room for two to stash.
Darrell Sooy (West Chester, PA)
If we’re ranking them based on pass-catching production (nominal fill-ins) then Richard and Montgomery. If we’re instead looking at the likelihood of the starter getting hurt, putting them in the lineup, I will go with Montgomery and Anderson.
Question 26
We had our draft last night. Picked Hopkins, Fournette, Ertz. We have a savvy league PPR 1 point that has been together since 1995. RBs grabbed up quick leaving us with David Montgomery, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber and Kenyon Drake. Preseason waivers Wednesday till the season begins - Would you switch any we have on board with any following FA's? Kalen Ballage, Ito Smith, Alex Mattison, Kareem Hunt, Damian Harris, Jamaal Williams, Ronald Jones, CJ Anderson, Justice Hill, Frank Gore or Carlos Hyde. Latest rumors is Hyde may be traded to Houston? Long question but much needed opinion.
Jim Furry (Myrtle Beach, SC)
I think you look good for now. I don’t envision any team giving up much of anything for Hyde. I think they would more likely wait for him to be cut.
Question 27
Each year we look at different ways to improve our league . The TE position has been a very top-heavy position, and I recommended making the TE position a TE/WR flex. What is your opinion on the change? The change devalues TEs, but the top guys will still get drafted fairly high (looking at your rankings, the top 3 TEs would be considered in the top 15-20 WR). In the past couple years if your starting TE went down you were in trouble trying to find help at the position on the waiver wire. I also thought about requiring teams to roster a TE so it forces you to draft a TE, but not sure if that helps anything. My thoughts were it would maintain the top guys draft positions like a normal TE position would, and have people taking shots on up and coming rookies at the end of a draft because the middle of the road players weren't valuable. Our league is standard scoring, snake draft, keeper league - keep 2 players after round 9 and they move up 2 rounds each year kept, max 2 years after draft.
Jonathan Sheppard (Millville, NJ)
I like the idea of having difference-making tight ends like Kelce, Ertz and Kittle. I like that being a dynamic in the draft, which each team calculating when it might make sense to be one of the few teams to utilize an early pick on the position. So while some of these “tight ends” are essentially just big wide receivers, lining up away from the line of scrimmage and running receiver-like routes, I like having them as separate positions.
Question 28
Did a mock draft last night in a PPR league. Have 1st pick, which will be Barkley. When it came time for my 2nd round pick 2.12 and 3.1, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, and Kittle were available. I drafted David Johnson and Gurley, then hated the WRs available later in the draft. Would you have selected David Johnson and Gurley if they are still on the board there, and wait on receivers?
sean sullivan (Orlando, FL)
Johnson and Gurley will be selected in the late second and early third round. That’s about right. If I were drafting there, I would be hoping to select a wide receiver, but it will depend on who’s available.