Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is FFI missing the boat on Tyrell Williams? Late-season defenses and kickers to target. Will Drew Brees put up elite numbers in the second half of the season? And more.
Question 1
I’m hoping you can elaborate on your ranking of Tyrell Williams in the Redrafter and for that matter the weekly. My league scoring is PPR and he ranks 17th in scoring per game among WRs who have played five or more games. You have him 54th in receiver rankings (including 7 TEs). I know you adjust some for bye weeks but he’s had his. He came back healthy in week 8 and had 91 yards and a TD (he’s scored in every game he’s played). The Raiders remaining schedule thru week 16 is Det, LAC, Cin, @NYJ, @KC, Ten, Jax and @LAC. Not exactly a murderer’s row.
PETE DEBIASE (Havertown, PA)
The Lions are a very favorable matchup. They’re last in pass defense right now. Two weeks in a row they’ve given up over 320 passing yards and 4 TDs. But what exactly is Williams? He was a No. 2 guy with the Chargers, running mostly vertical routes down the sidelines. I think the Raiders signed him with the intention of him filling that same kind of a role opposite Antonio Brown. Brown’s gone now, leaving Williams as their highest-paid receiver, but there hasn’t been a big effort to use him heavily. Three weeks in a row he’s caught 3 passes, salvaging a good day at Houston with a 46-yard touchdown catch (against another bad pass defense). The Raiders have a bunch of other wide receivers – Trevor Davis, Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, Keelan Doss – and they’ve all tended to be lightly used ancillary pieces. Tight end Darren Waller is the guy catching all the balls in that offense. If we set aside the touchdown at Houston, Williams in his last four games (80 percent of his season) has finished with 46, 29, 36 and 45 receiving yards. Williams missed two games with the plantar fascia injury, and I wonder if that will be an issue going forward. In PPR, workload is more important. You want guys who are getting lots of targets and catches. As we reach the halfway point of the season, it doesn’t look like Williams is going to be one of those guys, and I don’t expect him to keep scoring every week.
Question 2
At 8-0 and pretty much rolling along because of your great products, I am beginning to turn my attention to weeks 15 and 16. I've read somewhere here before that it's tough to put together a playoff product because of so much format variability, but I'd be VERY interested in a redrafter geared towards weeks 15 and 16. My core team of horses won't change, but I'd love to get an early start on a DST or kicker that might be a FA now, but has great match-ups over those final two weeks of the fantasy season.
Ken Carlson (Gainesville, VA)
I touched on defenses in another letter. With kickers, I don’t see anything too wildly out of the ordinary. Guys like Lutz, Tucker and Butker are on teams right now. I assume somebody has already grabbed Nick Folk in most leagues. I don’t see any lesser kickers that you would want to be sitting on for over a month. (Doing so might come at the cost of releasing a handcuff running back, for example.) Aldrick Rosas looks like the most appealing two-game option, with the Giants playing Miami and Washington in those weeks.
Question 3
What leads FI to rate QB Brees so far behind QB Wilson? Some believe Russell Wilson is having an MVP season. But, because of the way the Hawks prefer to play, he scores best when his team is behind or in a 'last score wins' game. Per the Notes, the Hawks' upcoming schedule is daunting. So, one could either conclude that he will score a lot, or that the Hawks offensive output will be disappointing enough to limit his value. Meanwhile, the Notes say Brees will face a ‘favorable’ schedule against ‘struggling’ opponents, with offensive weapons returning from injury. And, the results in his Week 8 return show that he’s more than ready to lead perhaps the strongest team in the NFC.
Dan Shipley (Black Diamond, WA)
I have had concerns about Brees not passing enough. About halfway through the 2017 season, the Saints figured out they were better when their offense was more balanced. Brees threw only 23 TD passes that season. And the Saints ranked only 15th in passing yards last year, averaging 261 per game. We saw the more conservative approach in some of the Teddy Bridgewater games. But I might be too low on Brees. he’s played only two complete games this year, and he’s thrown for at least 370 yards in both of them. His schedule is certainly favorable; three of his next four are against the Falcons (twice) and Bucs. Seattle has to play San Francisco twice, but one of those games is in Week 17 (after most fantasy leagues are done). If we look at just Weeks 9-16, both Brees and Wilson will see the 49ers once.
Question 4
I drafted Goedert as a handcuff for Ertz, and now I am considering using Goedert as my starter. Over the last 3 weeks he’s caught more passes and touchdowns than Ertz — yet in your rankings Ertz still ranks near the top and Goedert is an also-ran. What’s with that? I suppose this week I could start them both and bench McLaurin.
Eric Pryne (Vashon, WA)
The rankings aren’t based on what guys have done in the past. They’re an indication of what I think they’ll do in the future. I think Ertz will be more productive in the remaining games, with more catches, yards and touchdowns. Ertz has a lot more experience, and I think he has a better feel for how to work the middle of the field. It gets trickier, I think, when considering a TD-only format. They’ve had some success using Goedert in the red zone.
Question 5
What do you think about the best ball with transactions format? I'm thinking about proposing this rule change next year; rtsports offers it as an option. We're a 12-team league with 20-man rosters, and we've all had those losses where that one lineup decision sent you to a costly defeat. In the NFL, if an RB goes down, they don't shrug and say, "oh well, no RB for the rest of the game." It's next man up. Sure, this might be sour grapes (as I lost a key divisional game this week by starting Cousins over Goff), but I think this rewards savvy waiver wire scouting, and doesn't punish you for coin-flip roster decisions during an otherwise solid week. I'd like your thoughts on the matter.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
Sounds good to me. The other one I’d like sometimes is the ability to have two players share a roster spot. That is, when you’re torn between two quarterbacks – Cousins and Goff, perhaps – you don’t start either. You start both (taking half of the production from each guy).
Question 6
2 QB league. I have Goff and Brady, so need a starter for next two weeks. I have Kyle Allen on the bench. Darnold is available. Drop Allen for the soft schedule Darnold has upcoming in NYG and MIA?
Matthew Dolan (Walnut Creek, CA)
Agreed. With the schedule the Jets have, I think Darnold makes sense as a third quarterback. He can definitely fill in for a few games, and there may be some additional weeks in the future where you consider using him. (Goff has been a mild disappointment so far.)
Question 7
I have Watson and Murray this week and don't like either one. Carr is available on waiver wire. Should I drop Murray and pick up Carr (who is playing Detroit).
Robert Powell (Glendale, AZ)
It can be considered. The Lions might have the league’s worst pass defense right now, especially if Darius Slay (their best corner) is out. Detroit is allowing a league-high 302 passing yards per game. But Carr doesn’t run at all, while Watson and Murray are among the top few scramblers in the league. Watson has scored over half of his team’s rushing touchdowns. If you release Murray, you won’t be able to get him back for future weeks. So for me, I would go with Watson, keeping Murray around to start next week (when Arizona is facing Tampa Bay, which ranks next-to-last in pass defense).
Question 8
What are some defenses to pick up for Weeks 14-16? Already stashed the Jets for Week 14 but what other opponents (like Miami) should we be targeting to take the other team ? Are the Giants (who have good opponents in Week 15-16) a good choice even if their defense isn’t that good?
Vernon Jones (Marriottsville, MD)
I expect Washington will be starting Dwayne Haskins in December. He might be the most defense-friendly quarterback late in the year. They’ve got Green Bay, Philadelphia and the Giants late in the year. Plenty of potential there. Kyler Murray is taking over 3 sacks per week; he’s got Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Seattle late in the year. But Murray has only 4 turnovers in his first eight games, so I don’t see him as being as juicy as Haskins. Denver probably will be starting Drew Lock or Brandon Allen in December, and that could be very good. Houston, Kansas City and Detroit in those three weeks. With the Dolphins, they get a lot more interesting when Josh Rosen is starting (he’s not as good as Ryan Fitzpatrick at avoiding sacks). Miami has the Jets, Giants and Bengals in those weeks. Jameis Winston is the king of the turnover; he’ll likely be starting against the Colts, Lions and Texans in those weeks. With Tennessee, the sacks tend to pile up (with it’s Tannehill or Mariota starting), and it will in Weeks 14-16 play Oakland, Houston and New Orleans.
Question 9
My starting tight end (Hooper, thanks for the insight) has a Week 9 bye and I'm looking for a marginal fill in. Available are Hockenson, Brate, Rudolph, Goedert, Herndon. I'm leaning towards Hockenson for my Week 9 dice roll but would like your input. Goedert plays the Bears and Herndon is iffy as it will be his first week back (maybe).
Rudolph Woodhouse (Lafayette, LA)
That’s a nice group to be picking from. Hockenson hasn’t done much since his big opening in Arizona, but they’ve gone to him some in red-zone situations, and he’s got a nice matchup. I still think there’s some chance he’ll come in the second half of the season. With Brate and Herndon, I want to see the injury reports. If O.J. Howard is sitting out, Brate is probably your guy for Week 9. If we’re confident that Herndon is playing and starting, he is awfully appealing against Miami. Goedert has been playing the best of this group recently.
Question 10
Been using your research since '89 and you've always done me right. Drafted Matt Ryan and he's been great all year until he got hurt. Was lucky enough to have Brees on the wire and grabbed him last week and he ripped it up. Saints and Falcons both on by this week so will grab Allen or Cousin for one week but need to free up the roster space for this. Question is ... who is your preference ROS, Ryan or Brees?
Michael Crow (Orion, IL)
I’ve got Ryan a little higher on my board, but I can see how you’re torn. With the Falcons sitting at 1-6, there’s more potential for things to completely unravel – they may make a coaching change. Ryan has been getting hit more and has a gimpy ankle, so there’s more potential for him to potentially miss games.
Question 11
Wow Ian, kind of taken aback that you rated Olabisi Johnson so high on your receiver rankings, I get the exuberance and the possibilities, but man almost a WR1, I know that’s more of statement, so here’s the question: shouldn’t caution be exercised with rookie WRs?
Lynn Springer (Mukilteo, WA)
I should have talked to you last week. That one didn’t work out, of course. Johnson caught both of the passes thrown his way, but they just didn’t go to him much. The running game was rolling, and there simply wasn’t much downfield passing. I liked the way Johnson played filling in for Adam Thielen in Week 7, with 8 targets. Johnson caught a touchdown in that game, and I liked the way that it was drawn up to go to him all the way. Playing at home against a lesser opponent, I figured that Johnson looked like a really strong option – a poor man’s Thielen. But no.
Question 12
I need your advice. I need help at WR. I have Green, Landry, DJ Moore, Westbrook and Crowder. I have Mahomes and Darnold in a non-ppr league where QBs get 6 points for TD's. With Mahomes injury and tough schedule and Darnold’s cake schedule, would you trade Mahomes straight up for Hill, Evans or Godwin? I am tied for 1st with 4 teams all within one game and am just trying to get into the playoffs and hope for the best.
Rick Heidorn (Minneola, FL)
Mahomes has been doing some work in practices. I think he’ll be back in the lineup in Week 10. He’s got a bye in Week 12, but I would expect he’ll be putting up big numbers in all of their other remaining weeks. With your league being built around 6 points for touchdown passes, that makes him hard to move. (I would not shy away from starting Mahomes at New England in Week 14.)
Question 13
As a follow up to the question about how much longer you'll be around, I'd like to hear you talk about the good and the bad of your job. I can probably guess a lot of the good. The bad, though ... I can picture late-season games, watching teams in tank mode and just two bad teams playing each other. You watch all of them, right? How do you stay focused watching those games?
Theodore Gaskell (Jacksonville, FL)
It’s a lot of hours. From August through December, it’s seven days a week – it’s a lifestyle. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, you go until it’s time to go to bed at night. I try to limit myself to six hours on Saturday, recharging for the coming week. The other three days, you can set aside a few hours here and there to step aside, but you usually don’t. There’s just a lot to do. You get sucked into looking at some statistical trend or researching an obscure trivia question. But it’s fun, and it’s rewarding. In regards to games, I don’t try to watch them all. I think it’s more productive to carefully pick through and process all the stats, then go back and look at players, offenses and situations you think are most important.
Question 14
With the playoffs right around the corner who are some of the names you would be looking at acquiring with decent matchups as the trade deadline approaches.
Tom Clark (Suffers , NY)
The Jets have an unusually easy schedule coming up. Their next six are against the Dolphins (twice), Giants, Raiders, Bengals and Washington. New York has struggled thus far, but with that schedule, I have interest in LeVeon Bell and Robby Anderson.
Question 15
Your thoughts on playing a running back against a defense you might have? Does this ever work or is this considered taboo?
Jim Polli (Quakertown, PA)
It’s not something I consider. When I’m picking my starting running backs, I’m looking at my half dozen options – the running backs on my roster, and the best few available free agents. I don’t think bringing in what defense I might use needs to be part of the decision.
Question 16
12-team PPR league. I’m a little lean at WR and no one in the top 50 from my custom rankings are available. I know a lot of people are stashing RBs right now, but my running back stable is pretty strong. Any recommendations for deeper receivers that could outdo their redrafter rankings and pay off big for the playoff push? I’m in the playoff hunt again this year in both of my leagues thanks to the great product you guys are putting out. Keep up the good work.
Jordan Simons (Kohler, WI)
Josh Gordon is on injured reserve, but I saw a report where the Patriots are expected to release him. If that occurs, I would expect him to emerge as a starter somewhere, and he potentially could fit better with another team’s offensive system.
Question 17
heavy td only league,, minimal if any yardage pts ,,14 team league only carry 2 qbs not much on waiver wire,it appears the difficult schedule for j.winston(heard rumbling of sitting him down due to turn over problem) is behind him, starting this week it appears like his schedule the rest of year is significantly softer, your thought on streamimg him w/m.ryan who benefited with a soft schedule the 1st half but seems to be for face more difficult teams the 2nd half of season,,,willing to take risk for reward based on you thoughts thx ,,jb
John Brower (Chapel Hill, NC)
Sounds like a good plan to me. Winston-Ryan could be a nice tag-tag. Agree that there are plenty of nice looking games in the second half of the season for the Bucs.