When you’re playing the game of trying to identify the playoff teams, you’ve got to remember that there will be change. And now just a few new faces – substantial changes.
Since the league went to the 32-team format in 2002, the average is for half of the playoff teams to be new. Only twice in 16 years have their been as few as only four team teams. So if you pick 8 of the 12 playoff teams to be the same, that would be an unusually stable field. In six of the 16 seasons, more than half of the playoff teams have been new.
And in the last 16 years, eight teams (in bold) have gone to the Super Bowl after not making the playoffs the previous season.
It’s a league of change and turnover.
NEW PLAYOFF TEAMS
Year No New Teams
2003 8 Bal, Car, Dal, Den, KC, NE, StL, Sea
2004 5 Atl, Min, NYJ, Pit, SD
2005 7 Car, Chi, Cin, Jac, NYG, TB, Was
2006 7 Bal, Dal, KC, NO, NYJ, Phi, SD
2007 6 GB, Jac, Pit, TB, Ten, Was
2008 7 Ari, Atl, Bal, Car, Mia, Min, Phi
2009 6 Cin, Dal, GB, NE, NO, NYJ
2010 5 Atl, Chi, KC, Pit, Sea
2011 6 Cin, Den, Det, Hou, NYG, SF
2012 4 Ind, Min, Sea, Was
2013 5 Car, KC, NO, Phi, SD
2014 5 Ari, Bal, Dal, Det, Pit
2015 4 Hou, KC, Min, Was
2016 6 Atl, Dal, Det, Mia, NYG, Oak
2017 8 Buf, Car, Jac, LAR, Min, NO, Phi, Ten
2018 7 Bal, Chi, Dal, Hou, Ind, LAC, Sea
So as the 2019, a quick look at potential flaws of the playoff teams from last year. I’m ranking them from weakest to strongest (with the first 6-7 teams more likely to fall short of the postseason).
CHICAGO BEARS: The defense is awesome, but it doesn’t look like Mitchell Trubisky is ready yet to be an average-type starting quarterback. Their in a division with two other really good teams (Packers, Vikings).
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Their left tackle should miss at least the first third of the season, their franchise running back is holding out, and their breakout young safety will miss most of the season.
BALTIMORE RAVENS: They’ve got a young quarterback who can’t really pass, and they’ve got a lot of new faces on defense. In a division with two other playoff-caliber teams.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Their franchise quarterback retired during the preseason. Their in a division with two other viable playoff contenders (Texans, Jaguars).
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Defense isn’t as good as it’s been in the past. Lack of ideas on offense, and stuck in the same division with the Rams.
HOUSTON TEXANS: Deshaun Watson needs to stay healthy. Despite working behind a new left tackle, his durability is still a question mark. He tends to hold the ball, exposing himself to dangerous hits.
DALLAS COWBOYS: Ezekiel Elliott just signed, making him more of an injury risk than he’s been in the past. They’re working under a new and inexperienced offensive coordinator. They’re the 2nd-best team in their own division, reducing their margin for error.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: They’ve got a 40-year-old quarterback and rookie starting at center. They’re also in a division with two other legit Super Bowl contenders (Falcons, Panthers).
LOS ANGELES RAMS: Jared Goff tailed off late last year. Offensive line probably won’t be as good. Todd Gurley is playing on a bad knee.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Carson Wentz has had some injury problems, and even when healthy last year, he didn’t play as well as he did in 2017. Could potentially lose their division to Dallas.
KANSAS CITY: The defense has been re-worked; only one last year allowed more yards. But if Patrick Mahomes stays healthy, this will definitely be a playoff team.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: They’ve got a 42-year-old quarterback and they lost two offensive line starters. But they’ve got enough depth and coaching that even if Brady were to get hurt, that team would probably win the AFC East.