Ian Allan

September 23, 2019

3rd-down backs

Do backs catch more passes when their teams are losing?

In a previous post, I was kicking around the issue of whether third-down backs can actually be better in tougher situations. If a team falls behind or can’t get its running game going, it reasonably will pass more, setting up these backs to finish with better numbers. I want to come back at this issue, but in a different way.

For this mini-study, I looked at the last four seasons (2015-18). For each season, I pulled out all running backs who averaged at least 3 catches per game but also who didn’t lead their team in rushing. I don’t want to look at guys like Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott from last year. Instead, I’m looking for the third-down type backs – guys like Tarik Cohen, Chris Thompson and Nyheim Hines. I’m trying to get a feel for when to use those kind of players in PPR leagues.

Since 2015, there have been 27 such seasons (a running back catching at least 48 passes but not leading his team in rushing). They have been compiled by 19 different players, and their per-game numbers are as follows …

BEST THIRD-DOWN BACKS (last 4 years)
Player	G	No	Rec	Run	TD	PPR
Alvin Kamara, N.O.	16	5.1	52	46	.81	19.7
Danny Woodhead, S.D.	16	5.0	47	21	.56	15.2
Christian McCaffrey, Car.	16	5.0	41	27	.44	14.4
Kenyan Drake, Mia.	16	3.3	30	33	.56	13.0
T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	14	3.9	35	30	.36	12.5
James White, N.E.	46	4.4	38	17	.43	12.4
Bilal Powell, NYJ	16	3.6	24	45	.31	12.4
Tarik Cohen, Chi.	32	3.9	34	25	.34	11.9
Charles Sims, T.B.	16	3.2	35	33	.25	11.5
Giovani Bernard, Cin.	16	3.1	30	46	.13	11.3
Jerick McKinnon, Min.	16	3.2	26	36	.31	11.3
Duke Johnson, Clev.	48	3.9	36	23	.21	11.1
Dion Lewis, Ten.	16	3.7	25	32	.13	10.2
Darren Sproles, Phil.	31	3.5	26	24	.26	10.1
Nyheim Hines, Ind.	16	3.9	27	20	.25	10.1
Jalen Richard, Oak.	16	4.3	38	16	.06	10.0
Shane Vereen, NYG	16	3.7	31	16	.25	9.9
Theo Riddick, Det.	46	4.2	33	13	.17	9.9
Chris Thompson, Was.	16	3.1	22	22	.31	9.3

The stats you see are games played, followed by average number of receptions (per game), receiving yards, rushing yards, touchdowns and PPR points. The guys with more than 16 games are the ones who did it more than one season. With Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, for example, you’re looking at only their 2017 numbers, when they were in more supporting roles, sharing time with other running backs (who ran for more yards). Kamara and McCaffrey both put up giant numbers last year, but those aren’t included here – not the kind of backs I’m looking for this time.

For these backs, let me first lay out how these backs did when their teams were winning. That is, average production in games where their teams ended up with a win. (I’ve got them in alphabetical order.)

THIRD-DOWN BACKS WINNING
Player	G	No	Rec	Run	TD	PPR
Alvin Kamara, N.O.	11	5.4	50	52	.91	21.0
Bilal Powell, NYJ	5	2.0	11	73	.80	15.1
Charles Sims, T.B.	6	2.8	31	38	.17	10.7
Chris Thompson, Was.	8	1.9	14	24	.50	8.6
Christian McCaffrey, Car.	11	4.0	35	34	.45	13.6
Danny Woodhead, S.D.	4	4.8	48	29	1.50	21.4
Darren Sproles, Phil.	14	3.0	26	26	.36	10.4
Dion Lewis, Ten.	9	3.6	24	31	.11	9.7
Duke Johnson, Clev.	4	2.3	21	43	.00	8.6
Giovani Bernard, Cin.	12	2.4	20	52	.17	10.6
Jalen Richard, Oak.	4	2.8	29	24	.25	9.5
James White, N.E.	36	4.3	39	18	.50	13.0
Jerick McKinnon, Min.	13	3.5	31	39	.38	12.9
Kenyan Drake, Mia.	7	2.9	22	32	.43	10.9
Nyheim Hines, Ind.	10	2.4	19	20	.20	7.5
Shane Vereen, NYG	6	2.3	22	23	.33	8.8
T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	4	3.8	32	44	.75	15.9
Tarik Cohen, Chi.	17	3.0	31	32	.35	11.4
Theo Riddick, Det.	21	3.4	32	15	.24	9.5

Here are the same backs, but the numbers for games that their team lost. I’ve got them in alphabetical order so you can more easily compare the lists.

THIRD-DOWN BACKS LOSING
Player	G	No	Rec	Run	TD	PPR
Alvin Kamara, N.O.	5	4.4	56	31	.60	16.7
Bilal Powell, NYJ	11	4.4	30	33	.09	11.2
Charles Sims, T.B.	10	3.4	38	30	.30	12.0
Chris Thompson, Was.	7	4.1	31	22	.14	10.2
Christian McCaffrey, Car.	5	7.2	53	13	.40	16.2
Danny Woodhead, S.D.	12	5.1	47	18	.25	13.1
Darren Sproles, Phil.	17	3.8	27	23	.18	9.8
Dion Lewis, Ten.	7	3.9	26	34	.14	10.8
Duke Johnson, Clev.	44	4.1	38	21	.23	11.3
Giovani Bernard, Cin.	4	5.0	57	27	.00	13.4
Jalen Richard, Oak.	12	4.8	41	14	.00	10.2
James White, N.E.	10	4.7	33	13	.20	10.5
Jerick McKinnon, Min.	3	1.7	6	21	.00	4.3
Kenyan Drake, Mia.	9	3.7	36	34	.67	14.7
Nyheim Hines, Ind.	6	6.5	40	19	.33	14.3
Shane Vereen, NYG	10	4.5	36	12	.20	10.6
T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	10	4.0	36	24	.20	11.2
Tarik Cohen, Chi.	15	4.9	37	18	.33	12.4
Theo Riddick, Det.	25	4.9	35	11	.12	10.1

And finally, here are the same backs, with averages for games that their teams lost by more than a touchdown (at least 8 points). So on these ones, there should have been a healthy amount of time where the offense was in catch-up mode. Again, same 19 backs in the same alphabetical order.

With this chart, we’re getting down to a small number of games for a lot of the players, making for wilder swings, and making it harder to draw accurate conclusions.

THIRD-DOWN BACKS LOSING BY 8-PLUS POINTS
Player	G	No	Rec	Run	TD	PPR
Alvin Kamara, N.O.	2	3.5	36	11	.00	8.1
Bilal Powell, NYJ	7	4.9	34	32	.00	11.5
Charles Sims, T.B.	7	3.3	32	28	.29	11.0
Chris Thompson, Was.	4	3.5	25	16	.25	9.1
Christian McCaffrey, Car.	4	6.5	53	14	.25	14.7
Danny Woodhead, S.D.	4	4.5	35	14	.50	12.4
Darren Sproles, Phil.	9	4.2	30	9	.22	9.5
Dion Lewis, Ten.	4	3.3	17	10	.00	6.0
Duke Johnson, Clev.	28	3.8	34	20	.14	10.1
Giovani Bernard, Cin.	1	3.0	27	40	.00	9.7
Jalen Richard, Oak.	10	5.4	46	7	.00	10.7
James White, N.E.	5	4.6	40	19	.20	11.6
Jerick McKinnon, Min.	1	3.0	9	16	.00	5.5
Kenyan Drake, Mia.	8	3.5	32	35	.50	13.2
Nyheim Hines, Ind.	3	5.3	33	26	.00	11.2
Shane Vereen, NYG	2	1.5	14	2	.00	3.0
T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	4	4.3	37	32	.50	14.2
Tarik Cohen, Chi.	6	4.2	21	7	.17	7.9
Theo Riddick, Det.	13	5.4	37	10	.15	11.0

Comparing these different charts, I see that almost twice as many of these players averaged more points in games that their teams lost. Only 7 of the 19 averaged more production when their teams were winning, but 12 averaged better numbers when their teams lost.

In the chart, you’ve got the average per-game PPR numbers for each guy, then you have a percentage number showing how he performed (on average) in games won and lost. When you see a number like 105 percent, that means the player was 5 percent better than usual. When you see 95 percent, that means he was 5 percent worse.

Notice that there’s a final column, “Lose Big” that shows the games lost by at least 8 points. Only six of the 19 running backs put up better-than-average numbers in those one-sided losses. So that’s a vote against the premise that we should all be running out to try and start guys like Thompson or Cohen where we’re sure their team will lose by 14-plus points.

WINS vs. LOSSES vs. BIG LOSSES
Player	Pts	Win	Lose	L Big
Alvin Kamara, N.O.	19.7	107%	85%	41%
Bilal Powell, NYJ	12.4	122%	90%	92%
Charles Sims, T.B.	11.5	93%	104%	96%
Chris Thompson, Was.	9.3	92%	110%	97%
Christian McCaffrey, Car.	14.4	94%	112%	102%
Danny Woodhead, S.D.	15.2	141%	86%	81%
Darren Sproles, Phil.	10.1	103%	98%	95%
Dion Lewis, Ten.	10.2	95%	106%	59%
Duke Johnson, Clev.	11.1	78%	102%	91%
Giovani Bernard, Cin.	11.3	94%	118%	86%
Jalen Richard, Oak.	10.0	94%	102%	106%
James White, N.E.	12.4	104%	84%	93%
Jerick McKinnon, Min.	11.3	114%	38%	49%
Kenyan Drake, Mia.	13.0	84%	113%	101%
Nyheim Hines, Ind.	10.1	75%	142%	112%
Shane Vereen, NYG	9.9	89%	107%	30%
T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	12.5	127%	89%	113%
Tarik Cohen, Chi.	11.9	96%	105%	67%
Theo Riddick, Det.	9.9	97%	103%	111%

In general, I think these numbers support the premise that a running back’s pass-catching production can hold up even in a seemingly lesser situation. If you have a running back who can’t catch much at all (like Alfred Morris and Jordan Howard in recent years) you don’t want to start them when their teams look pretty certain to get beaten soundly. For fantasy purposes, pass-catching backs have more ability to overcome a bad situation.

For these 19 running backs, I see 62 games in the last four years where somebody caught at least 7 passes. Only 18 of those games were authored by a player whose team won the game. Over 70 percent of those games (44 of 62) belonged to backs whose teams lost the game.

If you’ve got a back like Cohen, Thompson or James White, don’t be scared to use them if you think their team probably will lose.

RUNNING BACKS CATCHING AT LEAST 7 PASSES (2015-2018)
Year	Player	Opp	Result	No	Rec	Run	TD	PPR
2018	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	at NYG	L 27-30	12	156	30	0	30.6
2015	Danny Woodhead, S.D.	Oak.	L 29-37	11	75	26	2	33.1
2016	Bilal Powell, NYJ	Mia.	L 13-34	11	78	84	0	27.2
2017	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	at Mia.	W 20-0	10	71	25	1	25.6
2018	James White, N.E.	at Buff.	W 25-6	10	79	15	1	25.4
2018	James White, N.E.	Ind.	W 38-24	10	77	0	1	23.7
2017	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	Phil.	L 23-28	10	56	8	1	22.4
2015	Theo Riddick, Det.	Ariz.	L 17-42	10	53	0	1	21.3
2017	James White, N.E.	Car.	L 30-33	10	47	7	0	15.4
2018	Nyheim Hines, Ind.	Hou.	L 34-37	9	63	10	2	28.3
2015	Duke Johnson, Clev.	at S.D.	L 27-30	9	85	31	1	26.6
2017	Duke Johnson, Clev.	Cin.	L 7-31	9	47	13	1	21.0
2017	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	N.O.	L 13-34	9	101	16	0	20.7
2015	Charles Sims, T.B.	at Car.	L 10-38	9	74	15	0	17.9
2018	Jalen Richard, Oak.	LAR	L 13-33	9	55	24	0	16.9
2018	Dion Lewis, Ten.	Phil.	W 26-23	9	66	0	0	15.6
2018	Nyheim Hines, Ind.	at Jac.	L 0-6	9	50	5	0	14.5
2018	Theo Riddick, Det.	at S.F.	L 27-30	9	47	0	0	13.7
2018	James White, N.E.	Mia.	W 38-7	8	68	44	2	31.2
2018	James White, N.E.	at Chi.	W 38-31	8	57	40	2	29.7
2016	James White, N.E.	Cin.	W 35-17	8	47	19	2	26.6
2018	T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	at K.C.	L 14-30	8	69	53	1	26.2
2017	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	Atl.	L 17-23	8	47	66	1	25.3
2015	Shane Vereen, NYG	S.F.	W 30-27	8	86	24	1	25.0
2015	Giovani Bernard, Cin.	at Ariz.	L 31-34	8	128	18	0	22.6
2018	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	N.E.	L 31-38	8	69	14	1	22.3
2015	Shane Vereen, NYG	Car.	L 35-38	8	43	29	1	21.2
2015	Shane Vereen, NYG	at N.O.	L 49-52	8	60	3	1	20.3
2015	Danny Woodhead, S.D.	at Oak.	L 20-23	8	53	55	0	18.8
2017	James White, N.E.	at N.O.	W 36-20	8	85	11	0	17.6
2015	Shane Vereen, NYG	Atl.	L 20-24	8	76	19	0	17.5
2016	Darren Sproles, Phil.	Atl.	W 24-15	8	57	19	0	15.6
2017	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	at T.B.	L 7-29	8	55	13	0	14.8
2015	Theo Riddick, Det.	Den.	L 12-24	8	66	0	0	14.6
2018	Jalen Richard, Oak.	Ind.	L 28-42	8	50	14	0	14.4
2015	Danny Woodhead, S.D.	at Den.	L 20-27	8	51	11	0	14.2
2018	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	T.B.	W 48-10	7	121	53	1	30.4
2018	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	at Mia.	L 28-31	7	90	31	1	25.1
2018	Kenyan Drake, Mia.	at Cin.	L 17-27	7	69	46	1	24.5
2016	Bilal Powell, NYJ	LAR	L 6-9	7	52	37	1	21.9
2017	Jerick McKinnon, Min.	Cin.	W 34-7	7	114	24	0	20.8
2015	Darren Sproles, Phil.	at Atl.	L 24-26	7	76	50	0	19.6
2018	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	at Det.	W 23-16	7	45	14	1	18.9
2018	James White, N.E.	Min.	W 24-10	7	92	26	0	18.8
2016	Chris Thompson, Was.	at Det.	L 17-20	7	40	73	0	18.3
2017	Duke Johnson, Clev.	at Chi.	L 3-20	7	81	20	0	17.1
2018	T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	Phil.	L 18-24	7	83	7	0	16.0
2018	Nyheim Hines, Ind.	at N.E.	L 24-38	7	45	45	0	16.0
2015	Duke Johnson, Clev.	at St.L.	L 6-24	7	73	17	0	16.0
2017	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	Atl.	W 23-13	7	58	32	0	16.0
2018	James White, N.E.	at Jac.	L 20-31	7	73	11	0	15.4
2015	Theo Riddick, Det.	S.F.	W 32-17	7	63	20	0	15.3
2015	Darren Sproles, Phil.	Was.	L 24-38	7	56	9	0	13.5
2018	T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	Ind.	W 6-0	7	49	16	0	13.5
2015	Theo Riddick, Det.	at St.L.	L 14-21	7	44	18	0	13.2
2018	Theo Riddick, Det.	Chi.	L 16-23	7	48	12	0	13.0
2017	James White, N.E.	at T.B.	W 19-14	7	57	3	0	13.0
2018	Nyheim Hines, Ind.	Cin.	L 23-34	7	33	19	0	12.2
2018	Jalen Richard, Oak.	Sea.	L 3-27	7	48	3	0	12.1
2017	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	at Chi.	L 3-17	7	36	10	0	11.6
2018	Dion Lewis, Ten.	at Hou.	L 17-34	7	33	8	0	11.1
2018	Theo Riddick, Det.	at Min.	L 9-24	7	36	0	0	10.6

SOURCE: Player stats and game logs come from the website Pro Football Reference. It’s an excellent place to grab data when trying to look into these kind of issues.

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