I expect the Packers will use an early draft pick on a wide receiver this April. They just didn’t get enough at that position outside of Davante Adams. If they’re going to move up in the NFC, they’re going to need more than just Adams.
This isn’t all necessarily on the players, of course. There may be issues with the structure of the offense – with the way the coaches are designing the plays. And there could be some issues with Aaron Rodgers simply not having the same trust with any wide receivers outside of Adams.
But I think we’re seen enough of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison. I will be surprised if either of those guys is one of the team’s top 3 wide receivers in 2020.
Valdes-Scantling was their most disappointing receiver last year. He had a key long reception in the season opener at Chicago, but he simply didn’t do enough. He caught only 46 percent of the passes thrown his way. Part of that can be attributed to him being used mostly as a deep threat (he averaged 17.4 yards per catch) but he simply isn’t good enough, I think, to be anything more than a situational player.
I think the Packers have concluded as much. MVS finished with fewer than 20 yards in all of his last eight regular-season games. He was under 10 yards in all but one of those games.
Allison used to play outside, and I liked him more out there. They tried to turn him into a slot receiver, and it simply didn’t work. He caught only 62 percent of the passes thrown his way (low for a guy running those kind of routes) and not enough of his catches did anything. He averaged only 8.4 yards per catch, and he was way doing at 5.2 yards per pass play when incompletions are factored in.
Jake Kumerow looks similar to Valdes-Scantling. They used him primarily as a deep threat. Kumerow didn’t play as much, but he was more effective in that role, averaging over 2 more yards per pass attempt. When they were passing to Kumerow, they went 12 of 21 for 219 yards, with one touchdown. That’s 18.3 yards per catch and 10.4 yards per attempt (best among their wide receivers).
I don’t think the Packers want to rely heavily on Kumerow, but they could keep him around as a rotational player – perhaps their fourth receiver.
Allen Lazard (pictured) is the intriguing sleeper here. He wasn’t even playing at the start of the year, but he came off the bench to save their skins in a Monday night win over the Lions. And as the year progressed, they settled on him as a more favored option their other lesser receivers. He averaged 43 yards in the last 11 games, albeit with a modest 3 TDs. He averaged a healthy 9.2 yards per attempt, which is actually over a yard more than Adams.
Lazard is big (they’ve got him listed at 6-5 and 227). He spent the 2018 season on Jacksonville’s practice squad after going undrafted.
The upcoming draft is loaded with talented wide receivers. I expect Green Bay will select, and it will be on somebody who’s more than just a throw at the dartboard – they’ll be drafting one they’ll be expecting to come in and contribute. Lazard, of course, will have the advantage of having been around for a year in the offense.
Adams is the one sure thing here, and he’ll be their go-to guy. He caught 83 passes for 997 yards and 5 TDs last year, and that was despite missing a quarter of the season with a turf toe injury.
| GREEN BAY WIDE RECEIVERS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Pct |
| Davante Adams | 127 | 83 | 997 | 12.0 | 5 | 65.4% |
| Allen Lazard | 52 | 35 | 477 | 13.6 | 3 | 67.3% |
| Geronimo Allison | 55 | 34 | 287 | 8.4 | 2 | 61.8% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 56 | 26 | 452 | 17.4 | 2 | 46.4% |
| Jake Kumerow | 21 | 12 | 219 | 18.3 | 1 | 57.1% |
—Ian Allan