Playing around with some numbers, I notice that tight ends have fallen a little flat in recent years. Not all of them, of course (Travis Kelce and Darren Waller caught a ton of balls last year). But the middle-of-the-pack tight ends haven’t been as productive.
This is a little weird in that production around the league has gone up. Teams are passing for more yards and touchdowns than ever before. Yet at the same time, the middle class of tight ends has gotten worse. Fewer teams are featuring their tight ends (relying more, I suppose, on multiple-receiver sets or using multiple tight ends – with no single guy putting up good numbers).
Consider the following chart. It shows the 10th-best tight end (using PPR scoring) for each year since 2000. In the last four years, those players have averaged 53 catches for 595 yards and 5.3 TDs.
But if you look at the previous eight seasons (2010-2017), every one of those 10th-place tight ends were better than those guys from the last four years. For that eight-year chunk, those guys averaged 61 catches for 689 yards and 6.3 TDs. They put up better stats, even while the league as a whole was less productive.
I’m not sure exactly what this means. It can be debated. I’ve tossed out a couple of theories. Or it might simply be a coincidence. But if we’re walking into a draft today, I think I would be more inclined to make sure I get a tight end I’m comfortable with.
Hayden Hurst was the league’s 10th-best tight end last year, but with the Falcons having drafted Kyle Pitts, I don’t think anybody wants to see a photo of Hayden Hurst. So I will back up a year and go instead with Dallas Goedert. Goedert would quality for me as a tight end I believe is worth going after in drafts this year (on my board, the bottom half of the top 10 at this position looks similar, and Goedert is one of those guys).
In the chart below, the final number shows where the tight end would rank if wide receivers and tight ends were blended together into one position. Nobody has been in the top 50 the last four years. If you a few seasons where that 10th tight end would rank about 40th among WR-TE.
| 10th-BEST TIGHT END EACH SEASON (last 20 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | WR |
| 2000 | Jackie Harris, Dall. | 39 | 306 | 7.9 | 5 | 101.6 | 72 |
| 2001 | Chad Lewis, Phil. | 41 | 422 | 10.3 | 6 | 119.2 | 63 |
| 2002 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 36 | 455 | 12.6 | 5 | 111.5 | 73 |
| 2003 | Marcus Pollard, Ind. | 40 | 541 | 13.5 | 3 | 112.1 | 71 |
| 2004 | Daniel Graham, N.E. | 30 | 364 | 12.1 | 7 | 108.4 | 68 |
| 2005 | Ben Troupe, Ten. | 55 | 530 | 9.6 | 4 | 132.0 | 55 |
| 2006 | Desmond Clark, Chi. | 45 | 626 | 13.9 | 6 | 143.6 | 51 |
| 2007 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 57 | 619 | 10.9 | 3 | 137.5 | 59 |
| 2008 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 56 | 778 | 13.9 | 1 | 139.8 | 54 |
| 2009 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 60 | 612 | 10.2 | 8 | 169.2 | 39 |
| 2010 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 60 | 685 | 11.4 | 5 | 158.5 | 50 |
| 2011 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 65 | 815 | 12.5 | 5 | 176.5 | 41 |
| 2012 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 64 | 737 | 11.5 | 5 | 167.7 | 46 |
| 2013 | Martellus Bennett, Chi. | 65 | 759 | 11.7 | 5 | 170.9 | 44 |
| 2014 | Julius Thomas, Den. | 43 | 489 | 11.4 | 12 | 163.9 | 55 |
| 2015 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 77 | 713 | 9.3 | 3 | 166.3 | 51 |
| 2016 | Martellus Bennett, N.E. | 55 | 701 | 12.8 | 7 | 168.1 | 56 |
| 2017 | Cameron Brate, T.B. | 48 | 591 | 12.3 | 6 | 143.1 | 52 |
| 2018 | Vance McDonald, Pitt. | 50 | 610 | 12.2 | 4 | 135.0 | 61 |
| 2019 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 58 | 607 | 10.5 | 5 | 148.7 | 55 |
| 2020 | Hayden Hurst, Atl. | 56 | 571 | 10.2 | 6 | 149.1 | 60 |
—Ian Allan