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March 23, 2022

KC trades Tyreek Hill

Speedy receiver heads to Miami for draft picks

The Packers shipped off Davante Adams. Now Kansas City is sending Tyreek Hill to Miami. As Vince Lombardi once said, “What the hell is going on out there?”

I think we’re looking at dynamics involving team building and valuation. That is, where do teams want to allocate their resources? With both of these teams, they’ve got a lot of money tied up in franchise quarterbacks. And with both of these receivers, they’re now moving into the second halves of their careers.

Adams is 29. With Hill, he’s a year younger but might have less top-level play left in him, given that his game is dependent on his legendary speed. So in both cases, teams need to be careful not to pay these guys as if they’re the freaky difference makers they were when they were 26 or 27 years old, when the 30- and 31-year-old versions of the players aren’t at that level. That’s probably where the difference of opinion begins.

Both players dramatically outperformed their contracts previously, of course, but that’s not relevant. That’s in the past. It’s a cold business, and teams need to pay more attention to what’s coming up.

I pulled up the list of the top 100 wide receivers of the last 20 years. Of those 100 best seasons, only 17 of them were authored by players who were at least 30 at the end of the year. But that’s not quite the picture I’m trying to paint here. Instead, let’s look at how great receivers have tended to perform as they come up to the age of 30.

For this one, I started by compiling a list of all players who’d finished with top-5 numbers at least twice before their age 29 season. Then, let’s look at how those players performed in the following seasons. That should help paint of picture of realistic expectations for Adams and Hill in the upcoming years.

Starting with the 29-year-olds. I see 19 guys, and nine of them finished with top-10 numbers. That includes Adams last year. But seven of them didn’t even put up top-20 numbers. (On this chart below, all 19 of the receivers were 29 at the end of the season.)

FRANCHISE RECEIVERS AS 29-YEAR-OLDS
YearPlayerGNoYardsTDPPRRk
2021Davante Adams, G.B.161231,55311344.32
2001Marvin Harrison, Ind.161091,52415351.71
2017Antonio Brown, Pitt.141011,5339310.32
2002Terrell Owens, S.F.141001,30014321.93
2013Brandon Marshall, Chi.161001,29512305.55
2005Torry Holt, St.L.141021,3319289.35
2010Andre Johnson, Hou.13861,2168256.67
2007Chad Johnson, Cin.16931,4408289.77
2017A.J. Green, Cin.16751,0788230.810
2016Demaryius Thomas, Den.16901,0835230.316
2014Calvin Johnson, Det.13711,0778226.717
2009Anquan Boldin, Ariz.15841,0245217.618
2001• Isaac Bruce, St.L.16641,1066212.923
2017• Dez Bryant, Dall.16698386188.424
2012• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.16717984174.833
2001• Antonio Freeman, G.B.16528186171.334
2021• DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz.10425728147.246
2021• Odell Beckham, 2TM14445375129.155
2006• Randy Moss, Oak.13425533115.359

Moving to the 30-year-olds, there are 15 wide receivers. I see only four finishing with top-10 numbers, and six finishing outside the top 20. (With each of these charts, I have the receivers ordered not chronologically, but by production, with the most productive players listed first.)

FRANCHISE RECEIVERS AS 30-YEAR-OLDS
YearPlayerGNoYardsTDPPRRk
2007Randy Moss, N.E.16981,49323385.31
2002Marvin Harrison, Ind.161431,72211384.21
2006Torry Holt, St.L.16931,18810271.84
2018Antonio Brown, Pitt.151041,29715323.75
2003Terrell Owens, S.F.15801,1029244.011
2015Calvin Johnson, Det.16881,2149263.412
2017Demaryius Thomas, Den.16839495207.916
2002Isaac Bruce, St.L.16791,0757230.316
2013Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.168295410238.217
2010• Anquan Boldin, Balt.16648377189.625
2014• Brandon Marshall, Chi.13617218181.134
2018• A.J. Green, Cin.9466946151.442
2008• Chad Johnson, Cin.13535404131.047
2002• Antonio Freeman, Phil.16466004130.056
2011• Andre Johnson, Hou.733492295.077

With the 31-year-olds, I see similar kind of numbers. There are 14 who played enough to even make it on the list. Only four finished with top-10 numbers, while six didn’t make the top 20.

FRANCHISE RECEIVERS AS 31-YEAR-OLDS
YearPlayerGNoYardsTDPPRRk
2015Brandon Marshall, NYJ161091,50214343.23
2003Marvin Harrison, Ind.15941,27210281.55
2012Andre Johnson, Hou.161121,5984295.86
2004Terrell Owens, Phil.14771,20014280.56
2007Torry Holt, St.L.16931,1897255.911
2008Randy Moss, N.E.16691,00811235.812
2009Chad Johnson, Cin.16721,0479233.915
2003Isaac Bruce, St.L.15699815202.118
2011• Anquan Boldin, Balt.14578873163.735
2018• Demaryius Thomas, 2TM15596775156.739
2014• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.14637842153.451
2000• Herman Moore, Det.15404343101.463
2003• Antonio Freeman, G.B.1514141028.1115
2019• Antonio Brown, N.E.1456116.1154

And I will toss in one final year, with 15 players of the 32-year-old vintage. I see five finishing in the top dozen, but I see twice as many who didn’t rank higher than 30th.

FRANCHISE RECEIVERS AS 32-YEAR-OLDS
YearPlayerGNoYardsTDPPRRk
2009Randy Moss, N.E.16831,26413289.42
2004Marvin Harrison, Ind.16861,11315287.35
2015Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.161091,2159284.57
2013Andre Johnson, Hou.161091,4075279.710
2004Isaac Bruce, St.L.16891,2926254.212
2012• Anquan Boldin, Balt.15659214183.430
2010• Chad Johnson, Cin.14678314174.134
2008• Torry Holt, St.L.16647963161.635
2005• Terrell Owens, Phil.7477636159.536
2016• Brandon Marshall, NYJ15597883155.849
2020• Antonio Brown, T.B.8454834117.165
2020• A.J. Green, Cin.16475232111.368
2019• Demaryius Thomas, NYJ1136433185.383
2001• Herman Moore, Det.3476011.6140
2020• Dez Bryant, Balt.6647222.7157

This is not, of course, a scientific study. Some of these reçeivers had injuries or got dropped into lesser situations. Antonio Freeman as a 30-year-old with the Eagles – nobody thought he was going to be an elite player. And players have different body types and playing styles (Hill, for example, I would think would have a shorter shelf life as a top-tier receiver).

But in general, I’m of the school of thought that teams should be cautious about handing out big contracts to wide receivers as they’re nearing 30. In today’s cap-driven game, the goal is not only to acquire talent, but also to avoid getting into the position where a player’s production doesn’t measure up to what he’s being paid.

With both Kansas City and Green Bay, they potentially could field better teams by going with younger, cheaper receivers who aren’t as good, instead using that money to improve other areas of the team. Neither of those teams would be helped by paying 31-year-old wide receiver $24 million to be the league’s 25th-best wide receiver.

With Kansas City, reports indicate they’re receiving first- and second-round picks, plus four other lesser picks. That should help to keep their team going in the upcoming years.

The pick is an odd one for the Dolphins. They already have a wide receiver with Hill-type speed (Jaylen Waddle). And they don’t have a quarterback with much ability to throw the ball deep. Some combination of Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater should handle most of the quarterbacking for them, and neither has been much of a downfield thrower.

—Ian Allan

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