Geno Smith is looking strangely decent for the Seahawks. It’s one thing to put up big numbers against the Lions, of course, with that defense on pace to allow the most points in league history. But Smith also completed a high percentage of his passes against the 49ers and Broncos, who have two of the best pass defenses in the league.
After the first month of the season, in fact, Smith has completed 77 percent of his passes. That’s the 2nd-best in league history, behind only Tom Brady of the 16-0 Patriots in 2007.
With the league being cluttered right now with iffy quarterbacks, Smith is looking competent. More competent, at least, than was expected in the offseason (when most thought that Drew Lock would be Seattle’s starter).
For the heck of it, I decided to pull the list of all quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes in the first four weeks of a season and also completed 70 percent of their passes. And to make the list more manageable, I’m looking at the 32-team era. The stathead.com site has search tools that are good for this.
Then I cross-merged that list with the final season stats for each guy. I wanted to check where each guy finished. Specifically, when a player is completing a high percentage of his passes, do those guys end up also being good fantasy quarterbacks? Smith, after all, completed a lot of short passes that didn’t really do any damage against the Broncos and 49ers. Seattle’s offense didn’t score a point in the final six quarters of those two games.
The list of the 70 percent passes appears below, and 36 of the 65 didn’t end up finishing with top-10 fantasy numbers. (I”ve got those quarterbacks tagged with black dots.) There’s some apples and oranges in such a comparison of course, with durability and rushing production (not listed) playing a role in where a quarterback ends up on the fantasy landscape.
Overall, I’m not in the Geno Smith camp. I think he’s benefited from playing against a pair of bad defenses, and that we’ll see some slippage in the coming weeks.
| 70-PERCENT PASSING IN SEPTEMBER (last 20 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (Pct%) | GS | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Pts | Rk |
| 2007 | Tom Brady, N.E. (79.2%) | 16 | 68.9% | 4,806 | 50 | 8 | 462.1 | 1 |
| 2022 | Geno Smith, Sea. (77.3%) | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2021 | • Kyler Murray, Ariz. (76.1%) | 14 | 69.2% | 3,787 | 24 | 10 | 358.4 | 11 |
| 2017 | Alex Smith, K.C. (76.0%) | 15 | 67.5% | 4,042 | 26 | 5 | 347.6 | 6 |
| 2018 | Drew Brees, N.O. (75.8%) | 15 | 74.4% | 3,992 | 32 | 5 | 356.9 | 9 |
| 2021 | Dak Prescott, Dall. (75.2%) | 16 | 68.8% | 4,449 | 37 | 10 | 397.1 | 6 |
| 2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. (75.2%) | 16 | 68.8% | 4,212 | 40 | 13 | 435.9 | 6 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. (75.0%) | 16 | 68.3% | 5,477 | 55 | 10 | 498.8 | 1 |
| 2019 | • Drew Brees, N.O. (74.3%) | 11 | 74.3% | 2,979 | 27 | 4 | 262.6 | 25 |
| 2018 | • Eli Manning, NYG (74.2%) | 16 | 66.0% | 4,299 | 21 | 11 | 313.0 | 16 |
| 2007 | • Matt Schaub, Hou. (74.0%) | 11 | 66.4% | 2,241 | 9 | 9 | 153.3 | 24 |
| 2013 | Philip Rivers, S.D. (73.9%) | 16 | 69.5% | 4,478 | 32 | 11 | 358.2 | 6 |
| 2010 | Drew Brees, N.O. (73.8%) | 16 | 68.1% | 4,620 | 33 | 22 | 364.4 | 3 |
| 2020 | • Derek Carr, L.V. (73.6%) | 16 | 67.3% | 4,103 | 27 | 9 | 347.2 | 13 |
| 2009 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (73.2%) | 15 | 66.6% | 4,328 | 26 | 12 | 340.6 | 8 |
| 2016 | • Tom Brady, N.E. (73.1%) | 12 | 67.4% | 3,554 | 28 | 2 | 298.1 | 21 |
| 2006 | • David Carr, Hou. (73.0%) | 16 | 68.3% | 2,767 | 11 | 12 | 215.9 | 20 |
| 2020 | • Teddy Bridgewater, Car. (73.0%) | 15 | 69.1% | 3,733 | 15 | 11 | 306.6 | 19 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. (73.0%) | 15 | 68.3% | 4,643 | 45 | 6 | 455.9 | 2 |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. (72.9%) | 16 | 70.4% | 4,611 | 34 | 14 | 392.4 | 7 |
| 2019 | Russell Wilson, Sea. (72.9%) | 16 | 66.1% | 4,110 | 31 | 5 | 383.7 | 5 |
| 2020 | • Philip Rivers, Ind. (72.7%) | 16 | 68.0% | 4,169 | 24 | 11 | 305.7 | 20 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. (72.7%) | 16 | 69.2% | 4,717 | 39 | 11 | 450.5 | 1 |
| 2021 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. (72.5%) | 14 | 64.8% | 3,113 | 25 | 6 | 288.0 | 20 |
| 2015 | Tom Brady, N.E. (72.5%) | 16 | 64.4% | 4,770 | 36 | 7 | 410.4 | 2 |
| 2013 | • Tony Romo, Dall. (72.4%) | 15 | 63.9% | 3,828 | 31 | 10 | 321.2 | 13 |
| 2015 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. (72.4%) | 16 | 60.7% | 3,821 | 31 | 8 | 363.5 | 8 |
| 2018 | Jared Goff, LAR (72.4%) | 16 | 64.9% | 4,688 | 32 | 12 | 397.2 | 6 |
| 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. (72.4%) | 16 | 65.1% | 4,902 | 30 | 11 | 412.8 | 3 |
| 2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. (72.3%) | 17 | 66.3% | 4,839 | 37 | 13 | 444.1 | 4 |
| 2008 | Drew Brees, N.O. (72.3%) | 16 | 65.0% | 5,069 | 34 | 17 | 389.4 | 1 |
| 2020 | • Gardner Minshew, Jac. (72.1%) | 8 | 66.1% | 2,259 | 16 | 5 | 201.3 | 26 |
| 2021 | • Teddy Bridgewater, Den. (72.1%) | 14 | 66.9% | 3,052 | 18 | 7 | 249.2 | 24 |
| 2019 | • Derek Carr, Oak. (72.1%) | 16 | 70.4% | 4,054 | 21 | 8 | 306.9 | 17 |
| 2020 | • Jared Goff, LAR (72.1%) | 15 | 67.0% | 3,952 | 20 | 13 | 313.5 | 16 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan, Atl. (72.1%) | 16 | 69.9% | 4,944 | 38 | 7 | 414.9 | 3 |
| 2014 | • Robert Griffin, Was. (72.0%) | 7 | 68.7% | 1,694 | 4 | 6 | 124.3 | 33 |
| 2014 | • Colt McCoy, Was. (71.9%) | 4 | 71.1% | 1,057 | 4 | 3 | 81.5 | 40 |
| 2005 | Carson Palmer, Cin. (71.8%) | 16 | 67.8% | 3,836 | 32 | 12 | 331.9 | 1 |
| 2015 | • Tyrod Taylor, Buff. (71.7%) | 14 | 63.7% | 3,035 | 20 | 6 | 316.0 | 18 |
| 2015 | Russell Wilson, Sea. (71.7%) | 16 | 68.1% | 4,024 | 34 | 8 | 398.5 | 4 |
| 2016 | • Brian Hoyer, Chi. (71.4%) | 5 | 67.0% | 1,445 | 6 | 0 | 96.1 | 33 |
| 2014 | Drew Brees, N.O. (71.4%) | 16 | 69.2% | 4,952 | 33 | 17 | 393.5 | 4 |
| 2004 | • Chad Pennington, NYJ (71.3%) | 13 | 65.4% | 2,673 | 16 | 9 | 216.3 | 22 |
| 2020 | • Drew Brees, N.O. (71.3%) | 12 | 70.5% | 2,942 | 24 | 6 | 254.9 | 22 |
| 2007 | • Chad Pennington, NYJ (71.2%) | 8 | 68.8% | 1,765 | 10 | 9 | 139.5 | 27 |
| 2007 | • Joey Harrington, Atl. (71.2%) | 10 | 61.8% | 2,215 | 7 | 8 | 143.5 | 26 |
| 2018 | • Derek Carr, Oak. (71.0%) | 16 | 68.9% | 4,049 | 19 | 10 | 291.3 | 18 |
| 2007 | • Jon Kitna, Det. (71.0%) | 16 | 63.3% | 4,068 | 18 | 20 | 283.6 | 11 |
| 2015 | • Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (70.9%) | 11 | 68.0% | 3,938 | 21 | 16 | 299.5 | 19 |
| 2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. (70.9%) | 16 | 69.2% | 4,544 | 37 | 10 | 473.5 | 1 |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning, Ind. (70.8%) | 16 | 68.8% | 4,500 | 33 | 16 | 355.7 | 4 |
| 2015 | • Philip Rivers, S.D. (70.7%) | 16 | 66.1% | 4,792 | 29 | 13 | 362.4 | 11 |
| 2022 | Matthew Stafford, LAR (70.7%) | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | Matt Ryan, Atl. (70.5%) | 15 | 66.2% | 4,466 | 26 | 14 | 350.0 | 7 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. (70.5%) | 16 | 70.7% | 4,299 | 48 | 5 | 440.3 | 3 |
| 2016 | • Sam Bradford, Min. (70.4%) | 15 | 71.6% | 3,877 | 20 | 5 | 280.7 | 24 |
| 2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. (70.3%) | 16 | 63.1% | 3,475 | 20 | 7 | 379.4 | 6 |
| 2002 | Drew Bledsoe, Buff. (70.3%) | 16 | 61.5% | 4,359 | 24 | 15 | 332.7 | 5 |
| 2019 | • Teddy Bridgewater, N.O. (70.2%) | 5 | 67.9% | 1,384 | 9 | 2 | 108.3 | 34 |
| 2006 | • Damon Huard, K.C. (70.2%) | 8 | 60.7% | 1,878 | 11 | 1 | 142.2 | 29 |
| 2008 | • Brett Favre, NYJ (70.2%) | 16 | 65.7% | 3,472 | 22 | 22 | 274.1 | 11 |
| 2002 | • Kurt Warner, St.L. (70.1%) | 6 | 65.5% | 1,431 | 3 | 11 | 86.9 | 39 |
| 2017 | • Josh McCown, NYJ (70.1%) | 13 | 67.3% | 2,926 | 18 | 9 | 260.7 | 21 |
| 2014 | Philip Rivers, S.D. (70.1%) | 16 | 66.5% | 4,286 | 31 | 18 | 348.5 | 9 |
| 2021 | • Mac Jones, N.E. (70.0%) | 17 | 67.6% | 3,801 | 22 | 13 | 295.0 | 17 |
| 2018 | • Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. (70.0%) | 14 | 66.6% | 3,223 | 24 | 12 | 325.3 | 15 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan