I was impressed by Jaylen Warren last year. Just an undrafted rookie, but he played his way onto the roster, won a backup job, then performed well with his limited opportunities.
Warren, in fact, averaged over a yard more per carry than Najee Harris. That impressed me. Two backs running behind the same line, and the backup got the better of the starter. It’s not an entirely level playing field, of course, with Warren perhaps getting more of his carries on draws in expected passing situations. But impressive.
And I saw another back nearby doing the same thing. James Cook averaged 5.7 yards per attempt, while starter Devin Singletary was down at 4.6.
This doesn’t happen often. Only 23 times in the last 22 years, in fact, has a running back who was the 2nd-leading rushing on his team averaged more than a yard more per carry than the guy who led the team in rushing.
| BACKUPS BEATING STARTERS BY A YARD PER CARRY | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2001 | Travis Minor, Mia. | 59 | 281 | 4.8 | 2 |
| 2003 | Lee Suggs, Cle. | 56 | 289 | 5.2 | 2 |
| 2003 | Onterrio Smith, Min. | 107 | 579 | 5.4 | 5 |
| 2004 | Mewelde Moore, Min. | 65 | 379 | 5.8 | 0 |
| 2004 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 134 | 673 | 5.0 | 4 |
| 2005 | Ryan Moats, Phil. | 55 | 278 | 5.1 | 3 |
| 2006 | Jerious Norwood, Atl. | 99 | 633 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 2007 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 52 | 252 | 4.9 | 1 |
| 2008 | Tashard Choice, Dall. | 92 | 472 | 5.1 | 2 |
| 2009 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 54 | 257 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 2011 | Evan Royster, Was. | 56 | 328 | 5.9 | 0 |
| 2011 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 87 | 441 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 118 | 652 | 5.5 | 3 |
| 2013 | Mike James, T.B. | 60 | 295 | 4.9 | 0 |
| 2014 | Jerick McKinnon, Min. | 113 | 538 | 4.8 | 0 |
| 2014 | Kerwynn Williams, Ariz. | 53 | 246 | 4.6 | 0 |
| 2015 | Karlos Williams, Buff. | 93 | 517 | 5.6 | 7 |
| 2016 | DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 87 | 467 | 5.4 | 2 |
| 2016 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | 83 | 491 | 5.9 | 1 |
| 2017 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 81 | 448 | 5.5 | 4 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 120 | 728 | 6.1 | 8 |
| 2022 | James Cook, Buff. | 89 | 507 | 5.7 | 2 |
| 2022 | Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | 77 | 379 | 4.9 | 1 |
It got me wondering about these guys. Specifically, how many of them continued to thrive, developing into larger contributors the next season? And similarly, how many of them just fizzled away?
If we take those same 21 guys and look at how they performed the next season, I see six that moved up and posted top-20 numbers, and another three who at least made the top 30. I have all of those backs tagged with black dots.
That leaves 12 of 21, of course, who didn’t make a big step up. And thumbing through those names, I don’t see many who went on to make much of an impact in their careers. Jerick McKinnon (who’s battled some injuries) would be an exception. And I see Mike James, who didn’t have much speed but had a stretch late one season where he was running hard and playing well.
On this version of the names, I’m showing total production rather than yards per carry, since that’s what us fantasy guys are most interested in.
| GOOD YARDS PER ATT AVERAGES (the next year) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2002 | Travis Minor, Mia. | 180 | 0 | 180 | 2 | 30.0 | 91 |
| 2004 | • Onterrio Smith, Min. | 544 | 394 | 938 | 4 | 155.8 | 30 |
| 2004 | Lee Suggs, Cle. | 744 | 178 | 922 | 3 | 130.2 | 34 |
| 2005 | • Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1046 | 320 | 1366 | 10 | 239.6 | 9 |
| 2005 | • Mewelde Moore, Min. | 662 | 339 | 1001 | 4 | 161.1 | 26 |
| 2006 | Ryan Moats, Phil. | 69 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 6.9 | 129 |
| 2007 | Jerious Norwood, Atl. | 613 | 277 | 890 | 1 | 123.0 | 42 |
| 2008 | • Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 625 | 284 | 909 | 12 | 193.9 | 19 |
| 2009 | Tashard Choice, Dall. | 349 | 132 | 481 | 3 | 83.1 | 53 |
| 2010 | • Arian Foster, Hou. | 1616 | 604 | 2220 | 18 | 396.0 | 1 |
| 2012 | • Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 1263 | 51 | 1314 | 12 | 209.4 | 15 |
| 2012 | Evan Royster, Was. | 88 | 109 | 197 | 2 | 46.7 | 74 |
| 2014 | • Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 660 | 395 | 1055 | 5 | 181.5 | 19 |
| 2014 | Mike James, T.B. | 37 | -5 | 32 | 0 | 4.2 | 145 |
| 2015 | Jerick McKinnon, Min. | 271 | 173 | 444 | 3 | 83.4 | 58 |
| 2015 | Kerwynn Williams, Ariz. | 142 | 16 | 158 | 1 | 23.8 | 107 |
| 2016 | Karlos Williams, Buff. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2017 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | 275 | 256 | 531 | 2 | 92.1 | 53 |
| 2017 | DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 153 | 197 | 350 | 3 | 87.0 | 59 |
| 2018 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 883 | 709 | 1592 | 18 | 354.2 | 4 |
| 2018 | • Aaron Jones, G.B. | 728 | 206 | 934 | 9 | 173.4 | 24 |
| 2023 | James Cook, Buff. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
I don’t know that either of these charts changes my opinions on either Cook or Warren. To me, I think Warren looks like a good insurance policy back. I think Harris will get hurt at some point, and Warren should be effective when filling in. Cook will be slotted higher on my board, with him probably getting on the field more often in a tandem with Damien Harris. Harris should be the hammer there, with Cook coming in to pop some longer runs.
—Ian Allan