Tyler Lockett turns 31 in September, but I wouldn’t be too worried about him fizzling out. He’s a consummate pro, other receivers of his ilk have tended to produce well into their 30s.
On this one, I’m using as comps other wide receivers with at least three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons heading into their age-31 season. (In the case of Lockett, he’s got four such seasons). I called up the last 20 other guys to pull that off, then looked at how they ended up performing as 31-year-olds.
I see three guys with shortened seasons. Jake Reed and Julio Jones missed 5 and 7 games, while Antonio Brown turned crazy with the Raiders and Patriots. So those guys, representing 15 percent of the player pool, were misses.
But all of the others put up at least top-40 numbers (using PPR scoring). And 13 of these receivers (65 percent of the player pool) finished with top-20 numbers.
As a group, these 20 guys (including the three with the shortened seasons) averaged 88 catches for 1,169 yards and 7.9 touchdowns.
It’s always tempting to draft the up-and-coming “next big thing” players – receivers like Christian Watson, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. And I’m as guilty as the next guy in this regard. But when you get out some of these historical numbers, there’s something to be said for grabbing the savings-bond reliability of a player like Lockett.
| RELIABLE WIDE RECEIVERS HITTING 31 YEARS OLD | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 1991 | Anthony Carter, Min. | 15 | 51 | 553 | 5 | 154.0 | 33 |
| 1993 | Jerry Rice, S.F. | 16 | 98 | 1503 | 15 | 351.2 | 1 |
| 1992 | Henry Ellard, LAR | 16 | 47 | 727 | 3 | 137.7 | 36 |
| 1996 | Cris Carter, Min. | 16 | 96 | 1163 | 10 | 272.3 | 7 |
| 1996 | Anthony Miller, Den. | 16 | 56 | 735 | 3 | 157.4 | 40 |
| 1997 | Tim Brown, Oak. | 16 | 104 | 1408 | 5 | 278.7 | 5 |
| 1998 | Jake Reed, Min. | 11 | 34 | 474 | 4 | 105.4 | 59 |
| 2000 | Jimmy Smith, Jac. | 15 | 91 | 1213 | 8 | 260.3 | 11 |
| 2001 | Rod Smith, Den. | 15 | 113 | 1343 | 11 | 318.0 | 3 |
| 2003 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 15 | 94 | 1272 | 10 | 281.5 | 5 |
| 2003 | Joe Horn, N.O. | 15 | 78 | 973 | 10 | 237.5 | 13 |
| 2003 | Isaac Bruce, St.L. | 15 | 69 | 981 | 5 | 202.1 | 18 |
| 2004 | Terrell Owens, Phil. | 14 | 77 | 1200 | 14 | 280.5 | 6 |
| 2005 | Derrick Mason, Balt. | 16 | 86 | 1073 | 3 | 211.3 | 19 |
| 2007 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 16 | 93 | 1189 | 7 | 255.9 | 11 |
| 2009 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 16 | 100 | 1264 | 10 | 286.4 | 3 |
| 2012 | Roddy White, Atl. | 16 | 92 | 1351 | 7 | 269.1 | 10 |
| 2014 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 16 | 70 | 1002 | 2 | 182.2 | 33 |
| 2019 | Antonio Brown, N.E. | 1 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 16.1 | 154 |
| 2020 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 9 | 51 | 771 | 3 | 146.1 | 52 |
| 2023 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan