I like Dameon Pierce. I understand that he was held back last year by having a lesser cast around him. But I also recognize that teams change.
The Texans ranked next-to-last in rushing last year, down at 87 yards per game. They also scored only 7 rushing touchdowns all year (also next-to-last). But to me, they look like a team that can get a lot better (particularly in that regard). The offensive line looks just fine, and they’ve got a new offensive coordinator coming in to re-design the offense. And Pierce had a really nice rookie season, looking at times like a young Marshawn Lynch – he’s a violent tackle breaker.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston’s rushing production moves up to something close to average. That would be a big improvement, but it wouldn’t be uncommon.
Consider the following chart. It shows the last 40 teams that have ranked last or next-to-last in rushing production (using standard fantasy scoring – 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 rushing yards). The table shows how those seemingly crappy teams fared the next season. Of the 40 teams, over half moved out of the bottom 10. And 30 percent of the teams (12 of 40) moved up to above average.
OFFENSES RANKING LAST OR NEXT-TO-LAST IN RUSHING (the next year) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Prev season | Att | Yards | TD | F Pts | Rk |
2003 | Chicago | 382-1344-8 | 443 | 1763 | 13 | 254.3 | 20 |
2003 | Houston | 424-1347-6 | 421 | 1651 | 14 | 249.1 | 21 |
2004 | • Arizona | 403-1531-5 | 475 | 1668 | 15 | 256.8 | 16 |
2004 | Detroit | 376-1338-5 | 407 | 1777 | 7 | 219.7 | 25 |
2005 | • Miami | 384-1339-10 | 444 | 1898 | 11 | 255.8 | 16 |
2005 | Oakland | 327-1295-10 | 361 | 1369 | 11 | 202.9 | 25 |
2006 | Arizona | 360-1138-2 | 419 | 1338 | 12 | 205.8 | 28 |
2006 | Cleveland | 395-1503-4 | 372 | 1335 | 7 | 175.5 | 31 |
2007 | • Cleveland | 372-1335-7 | 440 | 1895 | 13 | 267.5 | 13 |
2007 | Detroit | 304-1129-9 | 324 | 1288 | 13 | 206.8 | 25 |
2008 | Chicago | 423-1330-8 | 434 | 1673 | 15 | 257.3 | 19 |
2008 | Kansas City | 383-1248-6 | 379 | 1810 | 9 | 235.0 | 25 |
2009 | • Cincinnati | 420-1520-6 | 505 | 2056 | 9 | 259.6 | 15 |
2009 | Detroit | 352-1332-10 | 409 | 1616 | 9 | 215.6 | 26 |
2010 | • Tampa Bay | 404-1627-5 | 431 | 2001 | 9 | 254.1 | 13 |
2010 | Chicago | 373-1492-6 | 414 | 1616 | 10 | 221.6 | 24 |
2011 | Arizona | 320-1388-9 | 389 | 1625 | 12 | 234.5 | 22 |
2011 | Washington | 351-1461-9 | 400 | 1614 | 8 | 209.4 | 26 |
2012 | Cleveland | 415-1531-4 | 396 | 1593 | 12 | 231.3 | 21 |
2012 | Tennessee | 376-1438-8 | 378 | 1687 | 10 | 228.7 | 22 |
2013 | • Oakland | 376-1420-4 | 437 | 2000 | 16 | 296.0 | 10 |
2013 | Jacksonville | 358-1369-5 | 378 | 1260 | 7 | 168.0 | 31 |
2014 | • Cleveland | 348-1383-4 | 477 | 1728 | 17 | 274.8 | 12 |
2014 | Jacksonville | 378-1260-7 | 360 | 1633 | 9 | 217.3 | 22 |
2015 | • Arizona | 397-1308-6 | 452 | 1917 | 16 | 287.7 | 8 |
2015 | Oakland | 337-1240-4 | 370 | 1457 | 7 | 187.7 | 27 |
2016 | San Diego | 393-1358-4 | 398 | 1510 | 10 | 211.0 | 26 |
2016 | Detroit | 354-1335-7 | 350 | 1310 | 9 | 185.0 | 29 |
2017 | • Minnesota | 380-1205-9 | 501 | 1957 | 15 | 285.7 | 7 |
2017 | NY Giants | 398-1412-6 | 394 | 1549 | 6 | 190.9 | 27 |
2018 | Cincinnati | 377-1366-6 | 359 | 1682 | 13 | 246.2 | 19 |
2018 | Miami | 360-1388-4 | 371 | 1738 | 7 | 215.8 | 29 |
2019 | • Minnesota | 357-1493-9 | 476 | 2133 | 19 | 327.3 | 4 |
2019 | • Arizona | 355-1342-9 | 396 | 1990 | 18 | 307.0 | 8 |
2020 | Miami | 349-1156-10 | 428 | 1688 | 15 | 258.8 | 20 |
2020 | NY Jets | 383-1257-6 | 406 | 1683 | 9 | 222.3 | 29 |
2021 | Jacksonville | 337-1519-9 | 392 | 1755 | 13 | 253.5 | 23 |
2021 | Houston | 344-1466-10 | 420 | 1422 | 8 | 190.2 | 32 |
2022 | • Atlanta | 393-1451-11 | 559 | 2718 | 17 | 373.8 | 5 |
2022 | Houston | 420-1422-8 | 398 | 1476 | 7 | 189.6 | 31 |
2023 | Tampa Bay | 386-1308-5 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2023 | Houston | 398-1476-7 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
While I’ve got these numbers out, I may as well also show you the improvement stats for teams ranking 29th and 30th (again, using fantasy scoring). Of the last 40 such teams, half moved up out of the bottom 10, and 35 percent (14 of 40) moved up to above average (that is, ranking in the top 16 out of the 32 teams).
These stats in general indicate that one should be careful not to underestimate guys like Pierce, Rachaad White, James Conner, Cam Akers and Jonathan Taylor. If the past is any indication, some of these bad teams will be a lot better than you might expect (or at least have some success running the ball).
TEAMS RANKING 29th AND 30th IN RUSHING (the next year) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Prev season | Att | Yards | TD | F Pts | Rk |
2003 | Tampa Bay | 414-1557-6 | 421 | 1648 | 5 | 194.8 | 29 |
2003 | Detroit | 358-1477-9 | 376 | 1338 | 5 | 163.8 | 32 |
2004 | • NY Giants | 387-1559-6 | 424 | 1904 | 18 | 298.4 | 9 |
2004 | Tampa Bay | 421-1648-5 | 393 | 1489 | 9 | 202.9 | 29 |
2005 | • Tampa Bay | 393-1489-9 | 457 | 1826 | 13 | 260.6 | 15 |
2005 | Cleveland | 441-1657-6 | 395 | 1503 | 4 | 174.3 | 31 |
2006 | NY Jets | 384-1328-10 | 491 | 1738 | 15 | 263.8 | 17 |
2006 | Baltimore | 452-1605-5 | 476 | 1637 | 11 | 229.7 | 23 |
2007 | • Tampa Bay | 404-1523-6 | 449 | 1872 | 15 | 277.2 | 8 |
2007 | • Oakland | 394-1519-5 | 508 | 2086 | 11 | 274.6 | 10 |
2008 | • Atlanta | 385-1520-7 | 560 | 2443 | 23 | 382.3 | 2 |
2008 | St. Louis | 404-1527-5 | 417 | 1649 | 8 | 212.9 | 27 |
2009 | • Cleveland | 409-1605-6 | 498 | 2087 | 10 | 268.7 | 13 |
2009 | Arizona | 340-1178-14 | 365 | 1494 | 16 | 245.4 | 17 |
2010 | Seattle | 395-1566-7 | 385 | 1424 | 13 | 220.4 | 25 |
2010 | Washington | 391-1510-8 | 351 | 1461 | 9 | 200.1 | 31 |
2011 | • New Orleans | 380-1519-9 | 431 | 2127 | 16 | 308.7 | 6 |
2011 | Cincinnati | 428-1522-8 | 455 | 1778 | 10 | 237.8 | 21 |
2012 | • Detroit | 356-1523-9 | 391 | 1613 | 17 | 263.3 | 13 |
2012 | • Tampa Bay | 346-1458-9 | 416 | 1837 | 13 | 261.7 | 15 |
2013 | San Diego | 411-1461-4 | 486 | 1965 | 9 | 250.5 | 19 |
2013 | Dallas | 355-1265-8 | 336 | 1507 | 12 | 222.7 | 22 |
2014 | • Baltimore | 423-1328-7 | 448 | 2019 | 16 | 297.9 | 5 |
2014 | Atlanta | 321-1247-11 | 372 | 1498 | 11 | 215.8 | 23 |
2015 | • Tampa Bay | 353-1375-7 | 455 | 2162 | 12 | 288.2 | 7 |
2015 | San Diego | 398-1367-6 | 393 | 1358 | 4 | 159.8 | 32 |
2016 | Indianapolis | 396-1438-6 | 409 | 1628 | 13 | 240.8 | 18 |
2016 | Jacksonville | 354-1473-5 | 392 | 1631 | 8 | 211.1 | 25 |
2017 | • LA Rams | 375-1252-9 | 454 | 1953 | 17 | 297.3 | 5 |
2017 | Detroit | 350-1310-9 | 363 | 1221 | 10 | 182.1 | 29 |
2018 | Detroit | 363-1221-10 | 404 | 1660 | 11 | 232 | 23 |
2018 | Arizona | 409-1386-6 | 355 | 1342 | 9 | 188.2 | 32 |
2019 | Jacksonville | 416-1723-7 | 389 | 1708 | 3 | 188.8 | 29 |
2019 | Miami | 371-1738-7 | 349 | 1156 | 10 | 175.6 | 31 |
2020 | Pittsburgh | 395-1447-7 | 373 | 1351 | 12 | 207.1 | 30 |
2020 | Jacksonville | 389-1708-3 | 337 | 1519 | 9 | 205.9 | 32 |
2021 | NY Jets | 406-1683-9 | 380 | 1667 | 14 | 250.7 | 25 |
2021 | Pittsburgh | 373-1351-12 | 411 | 1583 | 10 | 218.3 | 29 |
2022 | • NY Giants | 419-1688-8 | 520 | 2519 | 21 | 377.9 | 3 |
2022 | • Pittsburgh | 411-1583-10 | 500 | 2073 | 16 | 303.3 | 15 |
2023 | Indianapolis | 439-1866-8 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2023 | Cincinnati | 399-1528-14 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan